MERRY CHRISTMAS guys, the jack daniels is open here bit of ice luvvly jubbly rodney, have a good one people.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122412/ECH1-144.GIF?24-0

HP sinking quite quickly this time around

Cannot complain about these temps for IMBY

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014122412/graphe6_1000_257_43___.gif

A period of seasonable, cold, frosty, but dry weather into the new year.

Better than dank, drizzly or wet and windy!

mild end to 2014 (away from far SE) from this afternoons EC run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

some higher parts of the north might see some snow after christmas but not seen anything to get excited about Yet*  

JMA is the star of the day

Scandi High that retrogresses

As funny as it sounds, I wouldn't dismiss JMA this evening.

A perfectly feasible evolution given the WAA towards Greenland between the T+96 and T+144 frame.

Edit: Currently -30c here in Bjorli - - and the models always try to collapse things too prematurely. Once the intense cold sets in over Scandi, it can be tougher to shift than Mr GFS and Mr ECM think...

Hey Mike, I hope you're right about JMA, and agree with your final point, seen that scenario play out before.

Let's hope Santa has got his thermals on delivering in Bjorli

JMA aside

With an El Niño in the background just about anything is possible and at short notice that's the best I can do atm lol

As for the strat/opi forecasts etc etc wheres my ruler so I can go measure the Arctic sea ice

More topsy turvy output just when you think there's a consensus, a high in some form but where and it's destination still undecided it appears. These last few days have been like a throwback to the 80s when you just had to rely on what Mr Giles etc, etc, told you.

well, we couldn't rely on what Mr Fish told us, especially in 1987

I like your thinking, Mike.
Very best Christmas wishes to you and all on TWO, and I hope 2015 delivers all that you desire (weather and all)

The Chinese forecast a bitter New Year's Eve eve...144 hours

So its the Japs The Chinese and the GEM versus GFS and euros...Hmmmm...

Bit of a hangover after overindulging in the 18Z last night 

Well Tamara has converted the lesser models into the faith of the undercut , but she has some fast talking to do in order to convince the big boys.

But Tamara is another day in model land.

Merry Christmas from me to all on TWO 

The GEM tonight doesn't look too bad either, for those looking for cold.

This is only my gut feeling, but I have a feeling there will be more twists and turns to come over the coming few days in the model output. That has been the way of it pretty much since December began.

A bit of a disappointment tonight to be honest, especially so as I went public with it earlier.

Slight corrections north again from the bigger models would bring many parts of central and southern areas into the freezer moving towards New Year 

I did ..and still do.

Time to resurrect a very old signature of mine...

Did you post such a comment yesterday ?

Just asking

im fed up of ALL these red herrings, had enough of them last years, focus on the new year,  ive seen enouth, have a good day tomorrow everyone,

you need leather skin for this hobby!! ...and the patience of a Saint