Looks like the worst sort of winter weather on the way (from the perspective of someone who commutes by bike) - wet and windy with below average temperatures. I don't mind cycling in the rain if it's mild, and I don't mind crisp frosty weather, but wet and cold, no thanks!

Still on the plus side this morning is beautiful, I'm currently on the train back to London through sparkling frosty Hampshire countryside, after a -5C start at 7.30am :)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The Strat warming is pretty much our only hope now for proper cold in January. And it's still forecast to smash the vortex soon. It's even better on the ECM. It really helped in January 13 can we get lucky in January 15. I would hope to see signs of blocking soon maybe 7 days.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=10&runpara=1&carte=1

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

The Strat warming is pretty much our only hope now for proper cold in January. And it's still forecast to smash the vortex soon. It's even better on the ECM. It really helped in January 13 can we get lucky in January 15. I would hope to see signs of blocking soon maybe 7 days.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=10&runpara=1&carte=1

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

The Strat warming is pretty much our only hope now for proper cold in January. And it's still forecast to smash the vortex soon. It's even better on the ECM. It really helped in January 13 can we get lucky in January 15. I would hope to see signs of blocking soon maybe 7 days.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=10&runpara=1&carte=1

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

IIRC the model output as far as coldies was concerned didn't look a great deal, if at all, better during the last few days of December 2012 that it does at present. I think the first more positive signs of a change away from atlantic zonality didn't really start to become more obvious and consistent in the models until we were into the first week or so of January 2013.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

IIRC the model output as far as coldies was concerned didn't look a great deal, if at all, better during the last few days of December 2012 that it does at present. I think the first more positive signs of a change away from atlantic zonality didn't really start to become more obvious and consistent in the models until we were into the first week or so of January 2013.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

It has been referenced on several occasions that a SSW is a specific feature with a defined rate of warming. As far as I can see no such warming is forecast or ongoing.
Additionally it has been stated many times that the effects, if any, of a SSW take time to propagate down into the lower levels where they might influence surface pressure patterns - possibly up to three weeks - so if any effects are going to occur we will be unlikely to see them until mid January.
Also additionally should any effects occur, where they do occur could work in our favour but could equally work against us.

In conclusion, upper strat temperature is just one parameter in a raft of parameters that influence our weather, and to cite it like it was the only thing that is guaranteed to deliver a cold spell to the UK is misguided IMO. As misguided as picking one good member of an ensemble suite thus warping what is otherwise a poor outlook for anyone wanting decent cold weather. Having said that it is, as they say, just for fun.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

It has been referenced on several occasions that a SSW is a specific feature with a defined rate of warming. As far as I can see no such warming is forecast or ongoing.
Additionally it has been stated many times that the effects, if any, of a SSW take time to propagate down into the lower levels where they might influence surface pressure patterns - possibly up to three weeks - so if any effects are going to occur we will be unlikely to see them until mid January.
Also additionally should any effects occur, where they do occur could work in our favour but could equally work against us.

In conclusion, upper strat temperature is just one parameter in a raft of parameters that influence our weather, and to cite it like it was the only thing that is guaranteed to deliver a cold spell to the UK is misguided IMO. As misguided as picking one good member of an ensemble suite thus warping what is otherwise a poor outlook for anyone wanting decent cold weather. Having said that it is, as they say, just for fun.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Short incursions of cold air look like delivering further snow at times up here, all in all far better than last winter.

Originally Posted by: Frost Hollow 

Short incursions of cold air look like delivering further snow at times up here, all in all far better than last winter.

Originally Posted by: Frost Hollow 

Wasn't last year record-breaking in terms of snow for many upland areas in Scotland?

Originally Posted by: NickR 

To say you need stratospheric warming for proper wintry weather is inaccurate to start with. You're putting all your eggs in one basket again. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

To be fair Matty, it is the only basket in town at the moment. Significant strat warming is now starting to occur and if (a big "if" to be sure) the model output does start to get more positive over the next couple of weeks, I think we could then point to the strat warming as a key precursor.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Indeed it is as any hopes of a beast from the East are dead in the water so all hopes for a prolonged cold spell hinge on a SSW taking place and hopefully we end up on the right side of such for a cold spell to develop. Anyone pinning hopes on a sustained cold spell without a SSW and going of the NH profile right now are living in cloud cuckoo land.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.gif

Doesn't paint a pretty picture , does it?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Same old gruel! Decent winter weather in January in the UK is as rare as hen's teeth. Zonal! Zonal! Zonal! Damn the relentless cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard and damn the relentless zonal weather, Bah humbug!

Just thankful for a couple of decent frosts - that is how dire our winters have become once again - back to the 90s!  Recent cold winters were just a pale reminder of past glories.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

To be fair Matty, it is the only basket in town at the moment. Significant strat warming is now starting to occur and if (a big "if" to be sure) the model output does start to get more positive over the next couple of weeks, I think we could then point to the strat warming as a key precursor.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Three years ago you'd never even heard of it. Pretty much none of us had. To suggest it's THE key factor in getting cold/snowy weather to the UK is wrong, and I can say that in complete confidence - wrong. It's one factor in isolation, not the be all and end all. One or two seem to think it is, like that cinnamonmanic guy that used to post on here and a few others. 

Anyway - in an attempt to drag this back to discussing the models:

They look shite for snow prospects in the reliable timeframe don't they? Even in the pointless to look at timeframe it looks total bobbins at the moment. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H