Yep and atm MRF stands for moderate rain forecast. A very mobile weather pattern unlikely to change until the Jet subsides.

lovely crisp weather for the next day or two though.

What a shame the hp couldn't hang around for a bit longer. I'd take sunshine & frosty nights over zonal dross any day of the week.

The EPS control run is certainly more interesting than yesterday's 12z zonal dross-fest. However, in Be Bilt at least it was also one of the coldest members - as it was here on days 9 and 10.

The EPS control run shows the following lows affecting the UK:

T+114: deep low to north with a massive warm sector over the UK

T+174: low moving ESE'wards over northern England, wide warm sector to the south

T+198: shallow low over Scotland with a smaller, weaker warm sector over UK

The low moves slowly SE'wards...

T+222: low near Netherlands, cold NNW'ly flow over UK (this is not supported by ensembles btw)

T+252: shallow wave crosses UK, sub-zero 850s throughout for the UK

T+294: low runs eastwards along English Channel, -5C 850s for all except SW and southern coastal England

T+336: another low runs eastwards along the English Channel

T+360: deep low near Iceland, SW'lies spreading across UK

If the run wasn't one of the coldest in the suite I'd be more interested. It's still not bad if you live in the north of England northwards though...

That ECM control run this morning was actually snowy for the whole of the UK.

At T+168 most of the UK from the Midlands north has a small amount of snow on the ground.

By T+240 the whole of the UK has snowcover with the exception of the SW tip of Cornwall.

By T+360 the snow really piles up, with 0.3 inches or more of "liquid equivalent snow cover" across all areas except that SW tip of Cornwall.

The overnight low here was -0.2C (lower in the valley I expect) and it's currently +4.3C and rising nicely. Now unless we've jumped into a parallel universe and missed something these conditions should be considered very typical in a British winter. God alone knows why some of the press reports are hyping up the current chilly spell and the MetO have an amber alert out for cold.

The model output strongly suggests the Atlantic is coming through around the New Year. Again this is very typical for a British winter. Thereafter we could see more of a north west to south west flow which increases the risk of snow over higher ground in the north with the potential for a wintry mix on occasions down to lower levels.

I don't want to sound like a post Xmas Scrooge but really don't see anything particularly unusual in the mid term output at the moment and that takes us into the second half of winter. Most of the UK population (not sure about land mass) will probably have seen no snow by the middle of January. The December CET is coming in above average unless my maths is even poorer than I'd realised.

EDIT: The other point is everyone is looking for snow which is fine, but for most of the country strong winds could be more of a problem in January if the current output is going along the right lines. 

They're only forecasts though Tom, and are subject to confidence as much as any other model. Was it not MOGREPS that was suggesting HLB over Greenland only two weeks ago that prompted the MetO LRF to change tune and for a few days even to suggest increasing risk of snow 'from the North'. That particular episode has gone the way of the mild fairy.

I am all for suggestions and global pattern influences and strat warmings and wave breaking but the end game is the current model output drizzled with years of experience which dictates nothing in the way of a reasonable cold spell with possible snowfall for lowland UK is indicated until at least the second week of January.

However, it is only the weather and just now it's a lovely crisp clear day so I for one will enjoy it while it lasts

It is quite funny , our 'wants' and 'likes' for the British Winter.

December 2010 was wonderful but with regards Winter that was really it. IMBY I had naff all in Jan or Feb, I'm quite happy for late Jan/ Feb to deliver.

Regardless this Winter is much improved on last year, some decent frosts IMBY , and some very lucky people have had some decent snow .

Agree about December 2010, Marcus. If there ever was a case of an entire winter (proper wintry weather I mean) being confined to just one month, that was it. Winter 2009-10 was the best recent winter for sustained cold, IMO.

The current model output would be of more concern to me at the moment were it late January/early February. Even though nothing much by way of real wintry weather has materialised thus far, we have seen some hints from time to time of possible changes. We didn't even get those last winter!

Great post Brian.

I wasn't aware that the MetO have/had an amber alert for cold weather?! This is just plain crazy. Going back to Jan 1987, when even Portsmouth on the S Coast saw a max of just -7c, that would warrant a cold weather warning but the weather in the next few days..... no, no and no! The internet has opened many doors for weather data and info but we are fast going down the American route of sensationalising the weather to make for glossy reporting in the effort to drive more click-through traffic.

I like....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

Believe it or not we will actually come within a hair's breadth of a major split in the polar vortex and subsequent disintegration during the next 7-10 days, only falling a little short of the wave activity required to achieve it. With a little more luck, the stratosphere-based outlooks issued way back in November would have proved very close to the mark in terms of a SSW taking place.

What the models show instead is the lower vortex being able to just about hold on before re-grouping from around 8 days time onward, initially centered over Scandinavia before scooting over to Greenland as a new wave of lower-strat. warming progresses from the Atlantic to Scandinavia and then on through Asia.

Of late, strat. changes at 30hPa have been reflected in the troposphere very quickly, and the models show this continuing to be the case, with a sharp increase in the westerlies on our side of the hemisphere days 8-12. It could become very stormy across much of the UK for a time, as the jet looks to be tracking south of normal due in part to the polar vortex being at below normal strength. It depends on whether the main focus of these westerlies is across the UK as per recent GFSP runs (which have looked fearsome at times) or in the western Atlantic as has been a feature of recent ECM op runs days 9-10.

Speaking of that model, it has also been making more of a mid-Atlantic ridge in a week's time, as has UKMO based on day 6 output, and both GFS and GFSP have trended strongly towards that on their 12z op runs. There looks to be another one of those transient northerly/northeasterly opportunities associated with this feature, if it is able to exploit what looks to be a very brief polar vortex split followed by a rapid recovery.

Way up at the top of the stratosphere, the second attempt at a 'killer-blow' warming has started to appear on recent ECM runs, starting off in NE Canada and progressing through Greenland. With the vortex in a weaker state prior to this one's impact, it's hard to imagine that this second attempt would be unable to take it down - but the timescale for this is unclear at the moment, and in any case, GFS doesn't seem so keen on this new warming (based on a lack of analysis of that model's output on the other site).

I know it's a trying process this - simple fact is, when there's going to be a 'close but no cigar' moment, it's a lot easier to go through when you're not aware of the cigar in the first place 

Totally agree

Maybe there still is some hope, James. At least time is still on our side just now for a pattern change.

I remember winter 2004-05 which I spent as a "lurker" on this forum. That winter for the most part was dominated by the atlantic and the model output for much of the time was rather uninspiring for coldies. Yet that all changed during February 2005. Let's hope that we don't have to wait that long this time around.

The GFSP isn't the worse run in the world. Has a cheeky little snow event next Saturday for the South. And a few more in F1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1