Three above average weeks one colder than average.I'll go for 5.1C please.

I'll go for 4.9 please.

I'll go for a pretty boring 5.4C please

4.5C for me please.

5.1c for me, thanks

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

Not surprisingly, given the latest model output, the first 13 days of January are expected to be way above average. In fact the current estimate is 7.17C which is nearly 3C above average (and nearly 1C above what we had for the same period in 2014).

This is nowhere near a record but if it verifies it would mean the first 13 days of January are in the top 10 warmest starts to January on record.

It seems that for now the recent general trend of warmer than average conditions is set to return after a somewhat cooler month in December.

5.1C please

I'm curious as to how you calculate your estimates, as I have been using the GFSP output to estimate the CET and so far that has given me a peak anomaly of +2.56*C to 12th January?

All I do is stare at the charts and calculate a rough average for the CET zone, which I admit sounds less than scientific 

Either way, the GFSP model has upped the temperatures quite a bit over the past 60 hours; the 12z of 29th gave me a mean of 1.56*C to 12th January. Still well above average of course.

ECM continues to produce chillier output thanks to high pressure not advancing so far into Europe. Still, I'm starting to get the impression that this is how much of the 90's were for NWP model watchers... 

Some great stats on here

I will plump for 5c

I hate being influenced by immediate NWP, which can swing wildly day to day. My gut says we're going to have a colder second half to January, and I was looking at somewhere around 4.5c. But if we are up around the 6.5c-7.0c mark by mid-Jan, then it'd have to be flippin cold to get down. Given There's absolutely no guarantee of a cold spell, I'm going to play safe and go with a halfway house of:

5.2c

...which will serve neither a later cold spell or a month of Atlantic-driven bilge.

A little tip (and speaking from personal experience), don't put a dash before your temp forecast, or some smartass will quip about -3.9c being a bravely cold prediction

5.9C please

4.45C please

5.9c please

Humour to the end eh Jacko

4.85c warm start coolish finish