That Azores ridge really does look like it'll be holding it's ground for quite a while. With a bit of luck, that may have the effect of deflecting the rough Atlantic stuff off to the north of the UK and keep it going until the next "change"?

As hinted by a couple of posters in here, if it has to go "mild", then at least keep it dry and pleasant rather than stormy weather as we've had more than enough of that last year.

My guess is the zonal train will only last for a few weeks at most before it wanes and the pv moves east

With strat charts like http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010118/gfsnh-10-192.png?18

I have much more hope then this time last year

Sensible, and that's exactly the advice I'd give anyone who actually wants an idea of what may happen in the short term. This thread is for possibilities, no matter how remote or likely. 

I've known country file to be wrong many times to.

Now were in to a zonal pattern, model agreement is good and shows well on the ensembles, little scatter in the short to mid term.

Low shannon entropy is the posh word for it. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

No appearance from the GFS "pub run" tonight (on WZ anyway) I see! Probably too ashamed to show its face after the vile 12z run it gave us earlier.

It's been pretty consistent for many runs now David so expected to see the same story this evening, but was hoping for a dramatic change before bedtime. From this suite of charts I'm mainly homing in on the jet charts now as until they show a favourable change, cannot see any cold weather for our shores.

JFF GFS gives us something to enjoy deep in FI:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0

Probably a toppler but at least a change in the pattern were it to verify.

Straospheric warming looks to be still on and split the PV in two:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=10&runpara=1&carte=1

Incidentally also JFF here's the chart for 372 hours from Jan 2013:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0&heure=0&jour=2&mois=1&annee=2013&archive=1

Follow on from the 2015 372 hours GFS toppler run and it's not hard to see a similar pattern - back in Jan 2013 in the immediate time frame it looked similar.to what we are facing around this time:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=54&mode=0&heure=0&jour=2&mois=1&annee=2013&archive=1

Of course Jan 2014 could stay mild with pressure strong to the south - JFF to compare 2013 with now as that was hardly inspiring at this stage for coldies either.

Anyway back to now and that's one strong high pressure cell to the SW:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

If you live in the South it's whether that HP is close enough to give us pleasant conditions or mild, cloudy and windy.

Once again, it looks like Brian's seasonal forecast is setting the standard. If this were to continue, it could be the 2nd half of February before a risk of a proper cold spell. Looking at the GEFS, it is expected to be extremely unsettled across Norway all the way through. Unsettled, mobile and always on the mild side across Scandinavia. 2014 is likely to be the mildest year on record across the majority of European countries and it seems 2015 will at least begin this way.

Shannon Entrophy, there is another stupid phase which I gather just means the level of uncertainty, so why don't people just say that!

All this techno babble is driving me nuts and it's nice to know I am not the only one.

It's wet, it's windy, it's mild and I am feeling like a clumpy old man!

Rant over.

andy

I think credit is due to METO and its forecasts.The probabilty charts have consistently shown  a warmer than average winter.The cotingency forecasts spelt out in October a continuation of mild weather,with a + NAO likely through both December and January. albeit weakening a bit towards end of month.

The shorter term  forecasts have flagged up possible cold snaps without getting too definitive.The latewst monthly forecasts himns at more settled conditions towards the end of the month,although low confidence.No mention of cold spell with this more settled weather so looks like HP  close either to south east or mid Atlantic. 

This mornings output apart from the odd ENS, out at 384h , is flat zonall with no sign of any northern blocking developing.

If you have a look back through the winter 2014-15 thread around December 1st quite a number of LRFs have predicted a milder than average winter, mine included, which now look reasonably accurate so far, FWIW.  December has come in milder than average, we've had the warmest New Year's Day in 99 years yesterday (quite something!) and the ensembles within the reliable range are also mild on balance, so a milder than average winter is looking likely notwithstanding that February could deliver the snowy goods for a few days.

I am surprised if December came in milder than average, since we had a fair number of decent frosts during the month, especially in the period from Christmas to New Year - something that was completely lacking in December 2013. I would have expected last month to come in at around average overall.

Here you go, 2014 -a record breaking year and December managed to be milder than the LTA:

The last month just shaded into mild territory but was close to normal and I would expect a few frosts in any normal winter month

Meanwhile the zonal train continues....

Yes, I know the CET for December 2014 managed to just about sneak in above the average, but I still find that surprising. We live in Worcestershire and we had a decent number of air frosts during the month - typically, we are told that an above average winter month is accounted for by a lack of clear skies and frosty nights - that was not true last month and my own temperature graph for where we live, came in 0.5 degrees lower than the official Hadley CET figure ( but we do live in a hilly region near the Shropshire border).

To 30/12 it was 0.8C above average, so it must have finished between 0.6 and 0.7 above average. Whilst not a mild month as such, that's considerably more than just sneaking in. 

Couldn't agree more, in fact I read some posts (in another place thankfully) and wonder what the hell said babbler is on about. Shannon entropy my ar

It didn't seem like an especially mild month where I live either. There were one or two notably mild days but there were also a number of pretty chilly ones as well, certainly more than we ever had in Dec 2013. Up to and including Tuesday, we did have a few days of rather cold and frosty weather; we had virtually none of that at any time throughout last winter.

Software development is full of techno babble and big words. The person who really understands the concepts and theory is readily able in most cases to explain them in simple english and draw real world analogies to convey meaning to the 'layperson'. Exactly the same thing should apply in weather forecasting. By this I mean in the business of day to day communication, not academic research where often the terminology is needed. I can only think of 2 reasons why forums are filled with techno babble.

1) To impress
2) The poster doesn't really understand the concept and theory so instead parrots off babble to cover up shortcomings (I did this in econometrics when doing my degree so understand it well)

In short I fully agree. I always try to keep my Buzz page as simple as possible.

The CET is a national mean. Local temperatures may be higher or lower than the national CET. And is 'feel like it wasn't mild' a statistically relevant paramater?

Dec 2013 was 6.3 CET; this year it's 5.2. The average is (1961-90) is 4.6, so firstly Dec 13 was milder than this December and secondly this December was only half a degree or so above the average with as you say some frosty nights late on that 'rescued' the mean from being higher.

Anyway back on topic because I know this thread is very busy at the moment
There is once again no indication of any significant break in the Atlantic mobility until mid to late January now.