My view is that optimistic charts are just starting to filter through to the backend of low res on the GFS (so arn't even visible on what we can see of the ECM) and the EPS, the CFS has also trended towards breaking the tropospheric polar vortex after mid month while the NAVGEM and JMA are showing tentative signs of a wobble at the 200hpa level. Bottom line is:

Don't expect to see anything other than zonality or southern blocking before the 20th, although if the jet stream gets really strong it may well be possible to see snow outside of scotland, a very direct westerly from a greenland vortex can lower the uppers to even -8C, I've even seen the occasional -10C in the archives, in this case snow showers are possible as far south as the midlands and indeed I think there are a few cold sectors where we could see snow in England rather than Scotland/high ground (1984?) but ofc this situation can never deliver anything more than tempory (abeilt occasionally impressive) deposits.

Regarding the overall pattern, which like I say is extremely poor (that ECM0Z 192hr chart couldn't really be more zonal if we tried, in fact I would call that chart the literal anti-thesis of 12th January 1987 (arguably the most impressive winter chart ever) and anyone who thinks we are seeing any cold that isn't on the backside of a LP for the next week or two is a little naive. I recon we should be looking at the last week of January for a pattern change and a potential for northern blocking, and the 3rd week of January for signs of a transition. Anything more is wishful thinking. 

12z GFS - Oh Dear.

EDIT

12z UKMO - Oh Dear

12z GFSP is also terrible for cold weather. A ridge topple across the UK later on but the general outlook remains the same.

PS: Just had confirmation the GFSP is going live on January 14th. 

I can see where he is coming from, there is a definately a signal there, particularly on the EPS which I am inclined to believe has something to do with the strat given the GEFS are inferior to the EPS at modelling it. That being said, its not a call I'd like to make, the sort of charts I am seeing on the GEFS suggest weak northern blocking rather than a siberian blast, the EPS is probably similar as there are no desperately cold members. 

I do think there is cause to be quite confident we will end on a cold note, however I would be far less confident calling a sustained or severe cold spell of the kind likely to bring widespread cold and snow and ice days (as opposed to the pre new year spell). 

Think its too soon, I suspect some of the GEFS members will be good at 384, but I think we need to wait a few more days before we see anything decent on the OP runs. Realistically it is going to be the last week of January unfortunately.

Damit thats more than half of winter gone. 

I'm so desperate I've taken to pixel spotting:
The E4 ppn chart for 12Z Sat has a whole 7 pixels of snow on top of Snowdon tomorrow as the shallow wave pushes through (you know, the one that some members suggested would deliver snow to The Midlands)

And please don't respond by saying 'this was more than we had last year' because I won't be responsible for my actions

The 12z GFS is not bad in terms of the overall signal, as it manages to introduce some amplification in lower-res which itself is a response to a steady weakening of the zonal flow, the vortex over Canada/Greenland becoming smaller and less influential.

The GFSP run is another story, with a very flat jet until the last few frames of the run. This seems to be largely down to a greater extent of cyclogenesis associated with the polar vortex. The jet stream is actually rather down on strength beyond day 10, with the delay compared to previous runs being down to a brief boost from the subtropical jet happening at the worst possible moment.

Most of my hope for improvement involves the 14-21 day range (so barely in reach of current model runs), but I am also looking out for any signs of a more amplified flow days 8-10 with the Scandi trough digging down into NW Europe more, as we have seen GFS and GFSP fail to pick that up before.

I would need to see ECM explore the idea before paying that much more attention though.

That's what Fergie hints out at today - but he says it's a low probability, but non the less it's still probable. Could we see something like January 2013? Think I've probably jinxed it now. 

Interest on 1/3 of the ensembles by 324hr (keep in mind several days ago, every single ensemble run was zonal).

By 348hr Ensembles split three ways: Zonal, Southern blocking or Northerly (again rather different from being entirely zonal).

By 360hr only 1/7 of the runs are zonal, the rest are either northerlies or blocked (from the south). 

I think this is really quite a significant signal, though please note there is no signal for any significant northern blocking, although I suspect this may well arrive yet in the last week. The other possibility is that we see a briefer cold spell (I think we will see a cold spell) followed by a return to zonality as we move into february, in this case expect nothing more exciting than the pre new year spell. 

Anyway the only other thing worth staying up for tonight is the weathercast EPS. 

Also one other thing if this signal in the last two weeks and especially the last week is due to strat warming from the top down (and to be fair about 2/3 of SSWs result in cold air for the UK, even if its only 1/2 for a marginal warming like this, there is a good chance there is some causality here) then the GEFS will significantly underestimate the blocking because the do not model the stratosphere anywhere near aswell as the EPS (correct me if I'm wrong please!), in which case I would be more interested in the later than the former, and indeed the cold cluster on the 0Z was pretty impressive. 

Actually one other thing worth staying up for, NAEFS and GEMS! 

Run of temps IMBY from the GFS 12z

3c 3c 6c 8c 7c 6c 6c 11c 11c 10c 10c 5c 4c 3c 2c 2c

IMO the t+10 day northern hemisphere charts from the 12z op GFS, GFSP, GEM and ECM this evening are collectively the worst of the 'post modern' era if we're hoping for cold and wintry conditions in the next 2 to 3 weeks.

Sure looks pretty terrible for cold weather fans

it seems to me that the models look like an average uk winter for the next week or so, with a bit of everything in the mix. still in early winter so im not to worried, this winter so far is hell of alot better than last year, im happy with that.

I've noticed that when the signals hit about 240 on the GFS low res it suddenly starts to become much clearer, ofc we also have the ECM there aswell. At the very earliest there are signs of a pattern change at 300hr (but nothing clearer until after 360hr) which means best case scenario eye candy will probably only start appearing in 3 days time.  Until then, its EPS, GEFS and strat gazing.

I'm yet to see anyone mention it's better than last year. Not once has that been said by anyone. Ever. 

Respectfully I disagree - the day 10 charts are quite an improvement from the day 7 ones which are about as poor as it gets 

This is largely down to a shift east in the location of the lowest heights, cleanest on the ECM run (which would also do the best job of shifting the Azores High west). The GFSP version shows what happens if you get lots of low pressure development in the region that the vortex is trying to depart from, which you would need to be brave to bet against.

I think we should keep an eye on the height rises that all models show taking place to some extent or other across Siberia days 5-10, as there's a chance of the Atlantic storm being directed on a track further SW than the likes of ECM and GFS/GFSP show on their 12z op runs, which would be a rather stormy outcome, as JMA is keen to illustrate:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2015010212/JN192-21.GIF

This is something that GFSP explored not long ago but has since moved away from.

I must say I've rarely ever seen a genuine Azores High as strong as is now being shown for day 7. It's the result of an intense low moving off at exactly the right time to drive a huge wedge of warm air NE across the Atlantic without interruption.

UKMO has a faster, shallower low that would lead to far less of a boost for the Azores High, but it's all alone with this version of events so best not to pin too much hope on that.

The only thing that's been better than a year ago here is that we had a more seasonal few days (by which I mean dry and frosty) from Christmas Day up to and including Tuesday. We hardly had a completely dry day in isolation here last year, let alone a few strung together. I imagine the same was true for much of the UK last winter.

I can help you out there Matty, it's better than last year 😉.

I am hoping that all of this high pressure to the south, especially the cell that seems to be a limpet over the Azores, will help us out in due course. Perhaps by ridging far enough North to open the door to some cold. Although based on current output this won't happen.....

[quote=Matty H;657790]

I'm yet to see anyone mention it's better than last year. Not once has that been said by anyone. Ever. 

[/quote

Looking at some posters tonight I wonder if many have forgotten to take their sarcasm pill]