Remove ads from site

Maunder Minimum
02 January 2015 10:20:46


 


The CET is a national mean. Local temperatures may be higher or lower than the national CET. And is 'feel like it wasn't mild' a statistically relevant paramater?


Dec 2013 was 6.3 CET; this year it's 5.2. The average is (1961-90) is 4.6, so firstly Dec 13 was milder than this December and secondly this December was only half a degree or so above the average with as you say some frosty nights late on that 'rescued' the mean from being higher.


Anyway back on topic because I know this thread is very busy at the moment
There is once again no indication of any significant break in the Atlantic mobility until mid to late January now.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yes, it all comes down to perceptions and local variations in the end - we live in a district which is prone to frosts in any case. A much better December however than that of 2013, regardless. All we have for January is hope at the moment - hope for a sudden increase in Shannon Entropy


New world order coming.
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 January 2015 10:21:46


 


Software development is full of techno babble and big words. The person who really understands the concepts and theory is readily able in most cases to explain them in simple english and draw real world analogies to convey meaning to the 'layperson'. Exactly the same thing should apply in weather forecasting. By this I mean in the business of day to day communication, not academic research where often the terminology is needed. I can only think of 2 reasons why forums are filled with techno babble.


1) To impress
2) The poster doesn't really understand the concept and theory so instead parrots off babble to cover up shortcomings (I did this in econometrics when doing my degree so understand it well)


In short I fully agree. I always try to keep my Buzz page as simple as possible.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Totally agree with point 1, and certain people on certain forums are in it for precisely that. No one that posts on here incidentally. 


Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogynyย 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Solar Cycles
02 January 2015 10:22:35


 


Software development is full of techno babble and big words. The person who really understands the concepts and theory is readily able in most cases to explain them in simple english and draw real world analogies to convey meaning to the 'layperson'. Exactly the same thing should apply in weather forecasting. By this I mean in the business of day to day communication, not academic research where often the terminology is needed. I can only think of 2 reasons why forums are filled with techno babble.


1) To impress
2) The poster doesn't really understand the concept and theory so instead parrots off babble to cover up shortcomings (I did this in econometrics when doing my degree so understand it well)


In short I fully agree. I always try to keep my Buzz page as simple as possible.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Lol, but it's the MetO who frequently use this terminology. Its frequently used when calculating Mathematical formulas, though I agree on a public forum it's done merely to impress and bamboozle the reader.

kmoorman
02 January 2015 10:26:21

Having flicked through my favourite charts, I thought I'd come in here and check on the general consensus. All this chat about Shannon Entropy and CET tells me everything I need. Nothing to see.


 


Happy New Year ๐Ÿ˜‰ 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Solar Cycles
02 January 2015 10:30:10


Having flicked through my favourite charts, I thought I'd come in here and check on the general consensus. All this chat about Shannon Entropy and CET tells me everything I need. Nothing to see.


 


Happy New Year ๐Ÿ˜‰ 


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

Deep in FI there some interest, not worth reporting really unless a fantasy toppler rocks your boat.

Retron
02 January 2015 10:34:21


1) To impress
2) The poster doesn't really understand the concept and theory so instead parrots off babble to cover up shortcomings (I did this in econometrics when doing my degree so understand it well)


In short I fully agree. I always try to keep my Buzz page as simple as possible.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The use of Shannon entropy to refer to uncertainty in the models is an odd choice anyway - it's usually used in the field of IT, such as in estimating bandwidth usage when (random) data is compressed. Saying there's more spread, more uncertainty etc would convey the info just as well.


It's a similar thing with all the stuff about wave breaking, AO, mountain torque etc. When cold was looming in November 2010 we had low Shannon entropy (all things considered), an AO poised to go negative and substantial wave breaking going on (which helped set up the stratospheric warming which then helped prolong the cold synoptics).


You could use the above techy terms, or you could just say "look at all that warm air going northwards west of Greenland, the more of that the better for us".


There's a trade-off, of course, but I'll always favour using easy to understand terms rather than techno-babble. People tend to stop listening whether you say that "a SATA-3 SSD should be plugged into a SATA-3, not a SATA-2 port", or whether you mention that "frictional torque is causing showers to form over the Thames Estuary". Of course, using such terms and understanding what they mean (when most don't) does make some people feel very clever! And that's why I'd say point 1 above nails it well.


Ah well, that was more interesting than the longer-term outlook. There's more uncertainty in the short-term, if anything, with the ECM ensembles showing that the temperature in Reading tomorrow lunchtime could be anywhere from 2C to 12C!


Leysdown, north Kent
Fothergill
02 January 2015 10:35:09

I think we can write off the first 2 weeks of Jan but hints of something for the 3rd week. Signs of HP ridging into the Atlantic, possibly into a mid-Atlantic high turning our airflow more NW with perhaps a cold shot from the N. Tentative and most GEFS peturbations are still zonal all the way. Could also be a temporary feature before things flatten but something of interest for coldies at least. I think Ian Fergusson said the ECM ensembles suggested similar.


00z GEFS anomalies at day 15


Whether Idle
02 January 2015 10:40:39


 


The use of Shannon entropy to refer to uncertainty in the models is an odd choice anyway - it's usually used in the field of IT, such as in estimating bandwidth usage when (random) data is compressed. Saying there's more spread, more uncertainty etc would convey the info just as well.


It's a similar thing with all the stuff about wave breaking, AO, mountain torque etc. When cold was looming in November 2010 we had low Shannon entropy (all things considered), an AO poised to go negative and substantial wave breaking going on (which helped set up the stratospheric warming which then helped prolong the cold synoptics).


You could use the above techy terms, or you could just say "look at all that warm air going northwards west of Greenland, the more of that the better for us".


There's a trade-off, of course, but I'll always favour using easy to understand terms rather than techno-babble. People tend to stop listening whether you say that "a SATA-3 SSD should be plugged into a SATA-3, not a SATA-2 port", or whether you mention that "frictional torque is causing showers to form over the Thames Estuary". Of course, using such terms and understanding what they mean (when most don't) does make some people feel very clever! And that's why I'd say point 1 above nails it well.


Ah well, that was more interesting than the longer-term outlook. There's more uncertainty in the short-term, if anything, with the ECM ensembles showing that the temperature in Reading tomorrow lunchtime could be anywhere from 2C to 12C!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


That's it really, well said, there is a great deal of empire building and ego polishing that goes on, especially on you know where, with some "high priests" of techno babble playing to the willing ears of their younger, impressionable acolytes.  Quite fun to watch at times.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
02 January 2015 11:06:38


I think we can write off the first 2 weeks of Jan but hints of something for the 3rd week. Signs of HP ridging into the Atlantic, possibly into a mid-Atlantic high turning our airflow more NW with perhaps a cold shot from the N. Tentative and most GEFS peturbations are still zonal all the way. Could also be a temporary feature before things flatten but something of interest for coldies at least. I think Ian Fergusson said the ECM ensembles suggested similar.


00z GEFS anomalies at day 15



Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


Yes, although a long way out, it is the first sign of a potential blip or change in the current persistent westerly pattern. Far too out to take seriously of course but worth watching if you're looking for a pattern change.


Until then, barring unforeseeable changes not shown on current model output, it is still a case of a predominantly westerly picture with spells of (usually milder) unsettled weather interspersed with cooler showery conditions.


idj20
02 January 2015 11:10:25

I think I know of a Shannon Entropy, she's that fat lass with the dolphin tattoo on her right shoulder living at the council flat just up the road from here.

Anyway, I've been banging this drum for a few days now but I'm still thinking/hoping that the Azores ridging will at least try and make the best out of a bad job for us Southern lots over the next couple of weeks.
  Otherwise, wavering frontal systems being shifted up and down the UK as the lot traverses west-to-east is going to be the form horse where orographic rainfall and lee-side rain shadows are likely to be at play. That would result in a notable west/east split in rainfall amounts with the North West getting to have a LOT of rain. 


Folkestone Harbour.ย 
The Beast from the East
02 January 2015 11:12:02

I used to fancy Shannon Doherty off Beverly Hills 90210 back in the 90s



Back OT, some interesting charts beyond +300 as there always is. These are the dark boring days we have to get through. Hopefully the last week of January will deliver at least a toppler


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Retron
02 January 2015 11:23:16
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif 

0z ECM ensembles - generally zonal, however:

* Note the spread in temperatures tomorrow lunchtime! It's very unusual to see such uncertainty at T+36.
* Towards the end there's a marked colder cluster of runs. The odds of them all being zonal mush that's exactly in sync would be low, so maybe, just maybe, it's a sign of a change after mid-month.
Leysdown, north Kent
Solar Cycles
02 January 2015 11:25:28

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

0z ECM ensembles - generally zonal, however:

* Note the spread in temperatures tomorrow lunchtime! It's very unusual to see such uncertainty at T+36.
* Towards the end there's a marked colder cluster of runs. The odds of them all being zonal mush that's exactly in sync would be low, so maybe, just maybe, it's a sign of a change after mid-month.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

So it's a case of Shannon Entropy from mid month onwards.๐Ÿ˜œ

Maunder Minimum
02 January 2015 11:42:25


I used to fancy Shannon Doherty off Beverly Hills 90210 back in the 90s


Back OT, some interesting charts beyond +300 as there always is. These are the dark boring days we have to get through. Hopefully the last week of January will deliver at least a toppler


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I could listen to her talking about Shannon Entropy and orographic rainfall all day - especially dressed like that - if she were to lean forward a little more, she might produce a toppler out of her own


I hate January in the UK - it is so often such a damp, mild, intensely disappointing month!


New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
02 January 2015 11:49:07


 


I could listen to her talking about Shannon Entropy and orographic rainfall all day - especially dressed like that - if she were to lean forward a little more, she might produce a toppler out of her own


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


She doesnt look as good now as she did then however. A more saggy toppler, rather like a typical UK northerly


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
02 January 2015 11:56:26


She doesnt look as good now as she did then however. A more saggy toppler, rather like a typical UK northerly


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Excellent!


New world order coming.
Rob K
02 January 2015 12:06:26


I think we can write off the first 2 weeks of Jan but hints of something for the 3rd week. Signs of HP ridging into the Atlantic, possibly into a mid-Atlantic high turning our airflow more NW with perhaps a cold shot from the N. Tentative and most GEFS peturbations are still zonal all the way. Could also be a temporary feature before things flatten but something of interest for coldies at least. I think Ian Fergusson said the ECM ensembles suggested similar.


00z GEFS anomalies at day 15



Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


 


Looks similarish to the far end of the latest GFS op run


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif


 


Could do with a change by mid month, as for the past week I've been checking my bookmarked GFS 240hr link first thing in the morning and seeing it almost totally unchanged! 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
02 January 2015 13:15:31

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Larnaca_ens.png


Some very cold weather heading for Greece to Middle east once again with snow forecast for Amman and Jerusalem while lot of rain and possible snow to Nicosia if this graph link come off as now is -5C as the mean but many members are going below than that.  -10C 850s air just reached as far as south between Turkey and Cyprus and -15C over Greece.  Shame it not over us here which would be nationwide -15C uppers here and down all the way to Spain.

Gavin P
02 January 2015 13:22:19

Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


January Look-Ahead With JMA Friday;



Also looking at CFS for next month + GFS and ECM for next week to ten day's.


It's not great news for cold lovers...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
nsrobins
02 January 2015 14:21:35

Well there seems to be something to cling to from mid-January with a move in the mean trough to the NE and a corresponding build of pressure to our west. A fair number of GFS ENS indicate this today.
If it can build on this in the next few days it will become interesting.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chiltern Blizzard
02 January 2015 14:55:17

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

0z ECM ensembles - generally zonal, however:

* Note the spread in temperatures tomorrow lunchtime! It's very unusual to see such uncertainty at T+36.
* Towards the end there's a marked colder cluster of runs. The odds of them all being zonal mush that's exactly in sync would be low, so maybe, just maybe, it's a sign of a change after mid-month.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Huge uncertainty at T+36..... Am presuming this is more down to uncertainty over nuances in humidity and/or wind wrt the ridge building over us, and whether that leads to persistent fog or sun, rather than any significant synoptic differences.


Andrew


 


 


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Brian Gaze
02 January 2015 15:09:50


The use of Shannon entropy to refer to uncertainty in the models is an odd choice anyway - it's usually used in the field of IT, such as in estimating bandwidth usage when (random) data is compressed. Saying there's more spread, more uncertainty etc would convey the info just as well.


It's a similar thing with all the stuff about wave breaking, AO, mountain torque etc. When cold was looming in November 2010 we had low Shannon entropy (all things considered), an AO poised to go negative and substantial wave breaking going on (which helped set up the stratospheric warming which then helped prolong the cold synoptics).


You could use the above techy terms, or you could just say "look at all that warm air going northwards west of Greenland, the more of that the better for us".


There's a trade-off, of course, but I'll always favour using easy to understand terms rather than techno-babble. People tend to stop listening whether you say that "a SATA-3 SSD should be plugged into a SATA-3, not a SATA-2 port", or whether you mention that "frictional torque is causing showers to form over the Thames Estuary". Of course, using such terms and understanding what they mean (when most don't) does make some people feel very clever! And that's why I'd say point 1 above nails it well.


Ah well, that was more interesting than the longer-term outlook. There's more uncertainty in the short-term, if anything, with the ECM ensembles showing that the temperature in Reading tomorrow lunchtime could be anywhere from 2C to 12C!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 Completely agree with this. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
snowjoke111
02 January 2015 15:17:15


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Larnaca_ens.png


Some very cold weather heading for Greece to Middle east once again with snow forecast for Amman and Jerusalem while lot of rain and possible snow to Nicosia if this graph link come off as now is -5C as the mean but many members are going below than that.  -10C 850s air just reached as far as south between Turkey and Cyprus and -15C over Greece.  Shame it not over us here which would be nationwide -15C uppers here and down all the way to Spain.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


 


Yes also snow in Africa and many parts of the med including Sardinia.


Bulgaria was at - 31c. 


http://www.markvoganweather.com/2014/12/31/warmer-scandinavia-africa-snow-reaches-med-coast-algeria-31c-romania/


 

Andy Woodcock
02 January 2015 15:36:28

Following my rant thanks for some good replies especially from Brian and Retron.


I suspect also that some posters use this terminology to justify cold ramping when really the outlook is poor, we saw this before Christmas when modest charts at best were going to lead to a big freeze due to a wave breaking here or a SSW there followed by the MJO going to phase 8 (or whatever!).


Some posters want to see a cold outlook in the forecast so much that they have delved into physics they really don't understand to find the Holy Grail of the next Big Freeze, its hopecasting at best and even when used with fancy terminology its still hopecasting!


The trouble is it raises expectations that on closer examination were excessive in the first place, then its mass suicide all round when the inevitable downgrades occur.


My advice is that if and when a pattern change comes the MetO will pick it up in their MRF so I don't care how high pressure is over Greenland at +240 on ECM I am not going to be taken in again.


Sorry this is so off topic but an interesting discussion anyway and far more interesting than the dreadful model output.


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
02 January 2015 16:05:47


Following my rant thanks for some good replies especially from Brian and Retron.


I suspect also that some posters use this terminology to justify cold ramping when really the outlook is poor, we saw this before Christmas when modest charts at best were going to lead to a big freeze due to a wave breaking here or a SSW there followed by the MJO going to phase 8 (or whatever!).


Some posters want to see a cold outlook in the forecast so much that they have delved into physics they really don't understand to find the Holy Grail of the next Big Freeze, its hopecasting at best and even when used with fancy terminology its still hopecasting!


The trouble is it raises expectations that on closer examination were excessive in the first place, then its mass suicide all round when the inevitable downgrades occur.


My advice is that if and when a pattern change comes the MetO will pick it up in their MRF so I don't care how high pressure is over Greenland at +240 on ECM I am not going to be taken in again.


Sorry this is so off topic but an interesting discussion anyway and far more interesting than the dreadful model output.


Andy


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


 


A great post Andy. Totally agree .GFS  low res, ECM AT 240. about as useful as a chocolate fireguard, If its significant cold and snow you want then unless the METO allude to it in their MRF, you can forget it.  People really need to get hold of the fact the fact that the METO are the best in the world at what they do. If they are not board then it ain't gonna happen.

Remove ads from site

Ads