Personally I've been looking for the similarities with the current pattern and 1988 (Bartlett), 1784 Mild and wet to icy freeze* and 2016, a bit similar in that there's bound to be a wet and windy period where people get upset and declare WOI.

*Made that one up. Entirely.

If there's any truth in it it's because of torque or something...

I thought I was sarcasm impaired. 

This is Andy, last survivor of Winter 2015 signing off.....

This sort of thing has been appearing in the GEFS ever more frequently, so it shouldn't just be ignored like a typical 384OP. I recon the metoffice forecast has it about right, they do mention colder weather in the final week but with low confidence. To me that reads more as a small chance of something quite wintry rather than a bigger chance of something pathetic. That being said the OP is a cold outlier:

But it is encouraging to see the cold cluster still there on the EPS, perhaps we still need to wait a few more days.

Oh and regarding last year's output Matty does have a point, its hardly an achievement to be superior to one of the wettest and mildest winters on record. 

Lamppost watching in the UK

It's worse Matty. 

At least when there is no potential you learn to manage expectation.

Meanwhile our friends across the pond in New York look set to experience a cold wave that eclipses anything experienced last year.

495 dam and -27c 850Hpa's at T+132 coupled with a zonal atlantic pattern is bad news southern UK coldies.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC

OOhi?
What are you look'in at?
https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTwbvr-f9ej6Awl-AisEBdNs2GT41VlrYmcTbqYZ1Av89UFsw3c0Q

At the moment.

 Judging by the charts?,it could,indeed, be an antique soon enough.

I was just thinking of posting the same.

They might think it was some sort or rare crystal?.

It certainly is here. Almost two years without a snowflake in balmy Sussex.

That's the biggest word he can spell.

Either that,or the o button got stuck.

Probably got a bit of Cranbury jam stuck on the keyboard?.

All in jest, Matty.

Some great banter in here tonight.
Although there are some very tentative signs of something a little more promising way out in FI, it's very early days.

Talking of FI and clutching straws, and given the dire looking outlook, it's about time this one was dusted off:

And a fair bit of dust it has.
I would imagine.

Feckin hell.

I hope it snows soon.

You lot do realise it did actually snow literally a few hours ago in Edinburgh! Maybe not IMBY for most, but the people at NW might laugh at us for all this moaning about lack of snow when most of scotland saw snow showers! 

Ian Ferguson posted on the other site yesterday to say that tentative signs of something more meridional after mid month. Low and behold, this morning there is a definitive trend on the 00Z GEFS to bring some sort of Northerly with heights edging into Greenland - most vividly illustrated by the Control, but also seen on the Op, Parallel and several other members. Whether this has anything to do with strat warming in the same part of the world we won't ever know, but certainly more reasons for optimism this morning than at any point in the last week or so at least.

Trendsetter or not? I'm never sure if I have access to the latest ECMWF ensembles, but might be worth a look for comparison sake...

One never knows. If there is to be a change, it has to start from somewhere.

Assuming a change does occur, my own money would be on a spell of HP dominated weather like we had between Xmas and New Year and then something possibly more wintry after that. I cannot ever clearly remember at time in the past when we've gone straight from an atlantic dominated pattern to a cold and wintry one directly, without there being a HP controlled "transition" period in between. That's what happened back in early-mid December 2009 for instance, after a very wet November and before the big freeze that took us into early 2010 commenced.

you can always tell when the output has been consistently dire for a while when the off-topic'ness gets as bad as this.

The control hints at a chillier mid month

looks more amplified around mid month but overall, still too mobile for a coldie.