And the last snow falling chart:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/12/basis06/ukuk/prty/15011406_1206.gif

FFS

10-20cm snow forecast here (10cm+ for other areas of the SW) from a SWly-Wly on the Euro4? I sure hope it's right but forgive me from being sceptical, that's never happened ever here from my memory (apart from in December 2009 but that was totally different setup). Uppers are -7 to -8 so it's plausible perhaps but these are lower than the GFS which has around-6 uppers.

I really hope it's right but... I don't want be Mr Grumpy but I'll believe it when I see it! Got some decent altitude here at least at ~270m ASL

True, but unless a 10% materializes into actual snow the outcome might very much the same.

Met Office weather warning for SNOW Tuesday/Wednesday ....Now out...

Not the South / South East - the warning here is for flooding Tues / Wed then wind.  No mention of snow.

apparently there is a glitch with the Euro 4 modelling of snow depth. divide by 2 under convective snow shower conditions - and remember that its a prediction so perhaps divide by 4 !

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

A Cold Spell Creeping Up On Us?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Signs of increasingly wintry conditions next 7-10 days? It's a "slow burner" in some way's but cold air may be gradually getting itself entrenched...

Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, Oxfordshire, Reading, West Berkshire

South East I'd say

Nope, that is Thames Valley

Am I right to interpret the scale as equivalent rainfall?.... i.e. Converting by a crude factor of 10, the those within the 5mm area would expect 5cm of accumulated snow.... If that's true, and it came off, this is unexpectedly noteworthy with 10cm+ over quite a wide area.   Being at 160m on the western fringe of Herts, I'm starting to think I just might get something from this (though clearly right on the edge of things)!  However, temperature are very marginal at best so even if we do get something, the inevitable sound of dripping along with the slush would tarnish things....

I'd imagine the Irish equivalent of this site (if there is one) would be going into meltdown looking at this... How often does 80% of Ireland (90% in the snow-starved west!) have appreciable lying snow forecast.... on a westerly?!?   Is it just me, or is this a little too weird to be believable though...

Me too, although borderline for my location, the Uni (Bath) may have fun and games...

This is looking like one of those classic examples of getting the broader picture right and then looking for smaller scale features that pop up. Just reinforces the idea that its not a good idea to take NWP at longer range at face value. The widely forecast snow of Jan 2013 (well forecast up to 5 days ahead) are the exception not the rule.

What gives, you hate snow. 

I think, like many, he loves the snow, but hate the cold.... an unfortunate combination really - a bit like loving music, but hating noise.

Which proves you either don't pay attention over the last however many years you've been on here, or you just don't know me. 

I LOVE snow. What I abhore is cold, miserable, nothing whether. I've no interest whatsoever in waking up to a frost, or walking around on a cloudy, cold day feeling thoroughly p1ssed off. Unfortunately snow goes hand in hand with cold, but there is no one on here loves snow more than me. 

A COLD SW'ly is a decent and very rare setup for you Matty.

I remember this happening once before with a snow streamer setting up off the Bristol Channel. It was a surprise snowfall and you did quite well out of it - I couldn't tell you the year!

Do you remember it?

Might have been Feb 2009? Did well in Bath that winter - upwards of 8 inches of snow at the Uni, although much less in Warminster...

Philosophical question, so probably the wrong thread, if it snowed at 10 deg C would people still love it?

From the reaction I get in the MO thread in April, I'm guessing probably not.

Anyway the picture is still pretty unclear for tommorow, I can't tell whether the snow predicted is entirely lake effect, or if there is still some feature that is causing some of it, the ensembles have backed off the trough idea but a few are still interested. 

Correct 2009 Fed 1st and 2nd mainly

Thanks Gav lets hope so

Theoretically, yes I would love it. However, there is a slight problem - if it snowed readily at plus 10 deg C, we would not be able to exist as human beings, since much of the planet would be covered by ice and snow most of the time :-)