Yep, been loitering for months but had lost my password and hadn't got around to sorting it out! Just back in time to see my easterly disappear according to the GFS 18z Op. Not surprising and of course this remains a realistic outcome but I'm holding out for the GFSP 18z which becomes the Op as of 12z tomorrow and gave us a reasonable outlook on today's 12z. I do believe that this year is MY turn for birthday snow!?

Odd to see the UK just as cold as mainland Europe, shows how poor it is for any decent cold, with the brief easterly that follows  

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011312/gfs-0-186.png?12

About a 3-5 day phase based on EC-EPS before mobility resumes. But nought reliable either way: too much volatility of current output, with fine balance between the likes of snowy 12z EC DET into 6-10d versus some clusters rather more akin to 12Z GFS. No one solution is convincing enough to be taken as ultimate outcome. There's sufficient f'casting problems even by Sunday to trouble us.            

From IF on NW

One run doth not a forecast make. Often said - frequently forgotten.

Yes it looks like anyone's guess. Let's hope the 18Z GFS isn't on the right track - a quick return to dross there.

Since some people were requesting it, here is GFSP accumulation.

And despite me being able to download my own scripts from the cloud, this took blood and tears to make on this awful machine. So I hope you all appreciate it! Right click open in new tab for a bigger version.

The 12z GFSP was different to the 'oldie' the 18z is just coming be interesting to see where that goes

Thanks Q 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011318/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

GFSP again differs to the 'oldie' ............in the right way

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011318/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

GFSP yet again is a beauty and very consistent with this theme, as it is taking centre stage soon, you would hope it would be near the mark

A cold Easterly firmly established , let's hope we get near it this time

Classic parallel pub run! 

If I had to nitpick some WAA to the UK near 240 out of Europe would kill off any lake effect snow potential. But its pretty damn good all the same.

Not sure how you can say that ??

GFSP, is an absolute stunner, UKMO aint bad and the ECM would deliver.

Granted the 18z GFS isn't great and could well turn out correct, but what I have seen tonight Snow would be on the agenda.

The GFS 18z Control also differs from the 18Z OP

18z runs continue the old/new standoff... GFS still seeming to somehow focus the jet in the western North Atlantic while GFSP shows it splitting nicely.

Hopefully for GFSP there has been a decent upgrade of the model's ability to model split jets! I suppose given this is only four days away now, the question is whether the ECM and UKMO op runs have been picking the right energy balance given the input data they've received - the split on the ensembles reflects the consequences of this balance being altered (as is the purpose of ensembles - to explore what slight changes to the initial conditions might lead to down the line).

The tension before viewing the 00z runs is going to be at the high end - though the remarkable consistency of the GFSP 18z with it's previous run right out to 6 days range is encouraging, and it's output right out to day 8 fits best with the near-term MJO behaviour and a rise in global angular momentum (GLAAM) with some favourable mountain torque (MT) events.

Many on here won't know what on earth I'm on about at the end there. I hope to have some explanatory features on the site soon with respect to these, as they can be very important - for example increased GLAAM is good for a disrupted jet with troughs readily sliding SE even when high latitude blocking is only slight. MT events are a major player in GLAAM changes.

Until then, I'm afraid you'll just have to take my word for it - or not, if you prefer 

From Mr Murr on NW 

Control

http://modeles.meteo...ens-0-1-192.png

PTB 2

http://modeles.meteo...ens-2-1-192.png

PTB 4

http://modeles.meteo...ens-4-1-192.png

PTB 5

http://modeles.meteo...ens-5-1-192.png

PTB 6

http://modeles.meteo...ens-6-1-192.png

PTB 8

http://modeles.meteo...ens-8-1-192.png

PTB 11

http://modeles.meteo...ns-11-1-192.png           

PTB 13

http://modeles.meteo...ns-13-1-192.png

PTB 17

http://modeles.meteo...ns-17-1-192.png

PTB 18

http://modeles.meteo...ns-18-1-192.png

PTB 19

http://modeles.meteo...ns-19-1-192.png

Some decent ones there

You not fancy Northern Parts of Kent then Q? 

Yes they seem to be generally more potent than the GFSP even! What is going on with P17?

Wow the EPS ensembles are bitter

Note that they have, with remarkable consistency predicted, and still are predicting the end to zonality on about the 16th-17th. Seems then the Easterly actually has won out and we are going to get it, followed by probably more polar maritime. Wherever you are it looks cold!

We've not had a single flake here contrary to several earlier runs of that model. 

But the danger is falling into the trap of taking the graphics too literally. 

Yeh and that met model had you in the 20cm zone. Again goes to show how difficult these little features are, I doubt some of the eastern parts of the Amber warning will see anything at all wheras some areas to the north of the Amber could get plastered.

There are wide varieties of solutions available as early as t120 this morning and differences multiply at 144 and beyond.

The models are generally cold, marginal for snow, the possibility that it could be cold for a while.  Fascinating, frustrating, confusing!

More runs are needed.

Marginally Messy ! 

ECM rolling out. Sunday needs watching.