theweatheroutlook

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nsrobins
14 January 2015 19:08:05


 


The 240 chart is not so good - where does everything go from there? Could all sink south and let the Atlantic back in:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011412/ECM1-240.GIF


I would not be too upset however, if we have had a few days of lying snow by then.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Stick to +144 max. It will keep your pulse on an even keel and makes more sense


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


London GFS suite. Remarkably tight grouping to, well, +144 surprisingly!

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Matty H
14 January 2015 19:08:38


The ECM thickness and uppers at 192 don't look too good. Yes I know it's pulling low level air from the east, but I'd not be surprised if areas south of London saw rain from this set up.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/168_thick.png



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What an absolute Kent. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
JACKO4EVER
14 January 2015 19:15:54


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011412/ECH1-216.GIF?14-0


A decent ECM it has to be said


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


not too bad for the cold crew.


😄

Rob K
14 January 2015 19:17:13
Yes the ECM looks similar synoptically to the UKMO but for some reason the thicknesses are much higher which means uppers several degrees warmer.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 January 2015 19:18:05


What an absolute Kent. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I saw what you did there

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
hobensotwo
14 January 2015 19:26:46


Weather type GFS Tu 20.01.2015 06 GMT


This really is J F F 


Weather type GFS Tu 20.01.2015 12 GMT


As is this


Weather type GFS We 21.01.2015 18 GMT


All J F F 


A snow fest for many


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


These look great. I could do with a 100 mile extension further south.

The Beast from the East
14 January 2015 19:30:09
Yes, looks very wet rather than snowy for the south.
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 January 2015 19:33:26


 


The 240 chart is not so good - where does everything go from there? Could all sink south and let the Atlantic back in:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011412/ECM1-240.GIF


I would not be too upset however, if we have had a few days of lying snow by then.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Bearing in mind that at most times of year, but more particularly during this current few days of model fluctuation, small daily model changes at say even T+72 will inevitably influence up-steam interpretation, I wonder why we worry about what almost certainly won't happen in 10 days time. It's the MO discussion so why not mention it, but for credence value..... well you decide.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Arbroath 1320
14 January 2015 19:34:23


 


The 240 chart is not so good - where does everything go from there? Could all sink south and let the Atlantic back in:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011412/ECM1-240.GIF


I would not be too upset however, if we have had a few days of lying snow by then.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I think in the current set up the best we can hope for is a 1 week cold spell and that aint too shabby given the Winter we have experienced so far. The Azores High still rules the roost though, and as long as that continues we can forget a sustained Scandi block scenario.


On the face if it that's the best ECM for ages if you're looking for a cold outlook with potential for snow.

GGTTH
Solar Cycles
14 January 2015 19:43:01


Weather type GFS Tu 20.01.2015 06 GMT


This really is J F F 


Weather type GFS Tu 20.01.2015 12 GMT


As is this


Weather type GFS We 21.01.2015 18 GMT


All J F F 


A snow fest for many


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Keep posting these charts Gooner, despite some not approving.

warrenb
14 January 2015 19:46:06
240 ECM is screaming reload to me, with Azores high going to Greenland for a holiday
Tonbridge 45m 
Quantum
14 January 2015 19:49:47


Wrg to that 168hr chart, I recon there will be snow on the northern edge of the front, Could be a stalling rain to snow event for the North Midlands.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Solar Cycles
14 January 2015 19:52:44



Wrg to that 168hr chart, I recon there will be snow on the northern edge of the front, Could be a stalling rain to snow event for the North Midlands.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Looks very much like a chart from 78/79 maybe a tad further south than the above.

Saint Snow
14 January 2015 19:53:47


Coincidently, Ian Fergusson has just this minute tweeted this


 


 


@liamdutton @GlennRedwood you'll see lots of GFS snow charts getting posted ad-nauseum. Ignore at this early & very tentative range.


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


It does make me grin when I see professional forecasters making references to the sort of things we discuss on here.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
14 January 2015 20:01:38


Weather type GFS Tu 20.01.2015 06 GMT


This really is J F F 


Weather type GFS Tu 20.01.2015 12 GMT


As is this


Weather type GFS We 21.01.2015 18 GMT


All J F F 


A snow fest for many


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Weatherporn!


(although in that last one, isn't that a sleet symbol over Oxfordshire, Gooner?



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Snow Hoper
14 January 2015 20:02:56
Freezing rain Saint.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Gooner
14 January 2015 20:05:28

With a continental flow, where the continent has entrenched cold, you can get 850's of -1, -2 and get snow.


I F's reply to the above


Yes, often folk take the 850hPa prognosis too literally. Chilled continental boundary layer critical.           

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
14 January 2015 20:06:42


 


 


Weatherporn!


(although in that last one, isn't that a sleet symbol over Oxfordshire, Gooner?



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


No I'm 0.25cm above that

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
14 January 2015 20:15:12


With a continental flow, where the continent has entrenched cold, you can get 850's of -1, -2 and get snow.


I F's reply to the above


Yes, often folk take the 850hPa prognosis too literally. Chilled continental boundary layer critical.           


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


But for those that want the lake effect you still do need deep cold, its fine for frontal snow, but that is never going to be as widespread as snow showers down the entire eastern side of the country.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
14 January 2015 20:19:36
Jacko4ever will get snowed in according to those snow charts.
Kingston Upon Thames
Gooner
14 January 2015 20:20:55


 


But for those that want the lake effect you still do need deep cold, its fine for frontal snow, but that is never going to be as widespread as snow showers down the entire eastern side of the country.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


When will I ever get lake effect Q?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
14 January 2015 20:37:13


 


When will I ever get lake effect Q?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Moderately strong ENE or NE wind, low wind sheer, low pressure (<1005mb), Uppers below -8C or preferably -10C. Those kind of conditions would bring widespread snow to all but the far west. No other situation is capable of bringing such widespread snowfall.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
PolarLow
14 January 2015 20:41:24

GFS predicted lying snow by next Thursday morning.  That blob in the SW midlands is over 2cm.  Get the bunting out!


 


lying

Sheffield 130m asl or Upton, Wirral 15m asl or Danbury, Essex 100m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
14 January 2015 20:42:18

very good ecm means much lower 850s at day 6 and 7 than the Op. Very cold out to day 10. For a fair chunk of England 850s are -6c for 8 days in a row Impressive.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1442.html


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1682.html

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
14 January 2015 20:48:24


 


Moderately strong ENE or NE wind, low wind sheer, low pressure (<1005mb), Uppers below -8C or preferably -10C. Those kind of conditions would bring widespread snow to all but the far west. No other situation is capable of bringing such widespread snowfall.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


And I get -10 uppers how often

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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