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Hamptonian
14 January 2015 23:13:42

Helen does a fantastic job of summing up what we can expect over the next 7 days. Pretty much exactly what everyones been barking on about fr the past 48 hrs. Nice to see the Met/Beeb are onboard

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30824978

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


One of the best I've seen on the BBC. Nice to have them onboard, and definitely interesting times to come 

Stormchaser
14 January 2015 23:13:57

Of course, away from the far south, the western half of England and most of Wales get pasted on that GFS 18z run so I was being a bit IMBY with that last post of mine.


Can't deny I am hoping for the snow line to be further south of course! Huge room for details to change still, what am I doing paying this much attention to the details of each run? It gets to even the more experienced of us sometimes 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
14 January 2015 23:14:58
Wow...fantastic forecast fom Helen Willets...exciting times me thinks, even potentially for us snow starved southerners!.hope Neil is getting his pen ready to sign that cheque😛
winnersh
14 January 2015 23:17:00
And another Danish Link .... For the maligned Q

http://www.dmi.dk/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder-2015/01/vejrudsigt-kolon-kold-luft-plus-varmt-hav-lig-masser-af-sne/ 

De nyeste prognoser fra det europæiske vejrcenter ECMWF, som ligger bag DMI’s 7-døgns prognoser, tipper nu mere og mere i den vinterlige retning.

På prognosen for tirsdag middag den 20. januar blæser en rigtig kold vind fra øst hen over Danmark, og da havvandet omkring os er ca. 3 grader varmere end normalt for årstiden, er betingelserne for særdeles kraftige snebyger tilstede.

The latest prognosis from ECMWF, which lies behind the Danish Met Office's 7 day outlook, are leaning more and more in a winter direction.
The forecast for Tuesday 20th at midday is for a really cold wind from the east in over Denmark and because the seas around are about 3 deg warmer than normal for the time of the year the set up is ripe for heavy snow showers.

So ... Conditions are well set for the Eastern counties of the UK.
tallyho_83
14 January 2015 23:17:57


IS it me or is the Wetterzentrale GFS down!?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
14 January 2015 23:25:42

Last one for me - out early in't morning:
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


GFS shorts. The OP was almost a mild outlier to the 24th. Goodnight!


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
14 January 2015 23:28:25


This GFS 18z run days 5-7 is a bit better for snow than ECM, not quite as good as the GFS 12z though.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


Depends where you live! For some areas it's a serious improvement.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Karl Guille
14 January 2015 23:29:07


Odd there aren't more on here, normally there would be hundreds packed into this thread, I wonder if last year has knocked the belief out of some?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


i'm here Marcus, post us a snowflake chart from 24-27 January for us patient Channel Islanders to look at just in case it doesn't arrive!!


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
14 January 2015 23:30:26

O/T


Even Darren Bett says " A prolonged spell of cold weather is on the way"


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Stormchaser
14 January 2015 23:30:53


 


Depends where you live! For some areas it's a serious improvement.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


True, was judging by the total spatial coverage of the 5 and 10cm + snow accumulation lines... not that they're much good anyway.


Did get a bit IMBY for a time though, memories of March 2013 (only just missed out back then) causing some less balanced behaviour on my part, will aim to cut that out again tomorrow 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
SEMerc
14 January 2015 23:32:35


 


When will I ever get lake effect Q?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



I'll drink to that.


Saint Snow
14 January 2015 23:33:32


 


True, was judging by the total spatial coverage of the 5 and 10cm + snow accumulation lines... not that they're much good anyway.


Did get a bit IMBY for a time though, memories of March 2013 (only just missed out back then) causing some less balanced behaviour on my part, will aim to cut that out again tomorrow 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


Nah, always room for a bit of IMBY'ism - you more than most are entitled to it 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
14 January 2015 23:35:33


 



Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Yes but he never came back with a date


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
14 January 2015 23:35:47


Cold nights by end of next week and sub daytime temps too if this materialises!?


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Chiltern Blizzard
14 January 2015 23:35:52

No, it is not just "one run". For example here is the ECM mean chart at day 7

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.html


 


Indeed... To add further context, whereas the 12z ECM op was 'poor' relative to other runs today, but it was still wintry through to day 10 with plenty of snow opportunities.  Still, positive as it is, we shouldn't get carried away... There will doubtless be some bumps along thy way.....


Finally, if anyone gets grumpy about a potential breakdown at day 10+ over the coming days, before this forecast cold spell's begun, they should be shot!


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Quantum
15 January 2015 00:10:13


 


Agree. Q your recent obsession with 'lake effect' snowfall, a term accepted as describing the thermal dynamic snowfall on the leeward side of the Great Lakes in America, is IMO detrimental to your otherwise excellent contributions.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


The more general term I think is bay effect or ocean effect, but I think even when its ocean people still call it lake effect. I'm not quite sure what I have said wrong, frontal systems that deliever snow rarely cover a significant proportion of the country, and when they do its most often on the twilight of a cold spell. Wheras snow showers imported off the north sea can cover nearly all of the country, infact in 1987 I believe basically everywhere got snow on a couple of days apart from the extreme NW of scotland. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Retron
15 January 2015 04:28:55


The more general term I think is bay effect or ocean effect, but I think even when its ocean people still call it lake effect.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It's still called "lake effect" snow here in the UK, FWIW - it's a recognised term for it.


(I was first aware of the term being used regarding the UK in the 80s following some media reports about 87, which was a classic example of a couple of feet of "lake effect" snow here, but by the 90s its use was widespread on the likes of usw.)


Leysdown, north Kent
Snowedin3
15 January 2015 06:23:06

GFS Ens Paint a very Cold picture this morning, 


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


 


Under average temperatures right to the the end.


Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Maunder Minimum
15 January 2015 06:45:57


GFS Ens Paint a very Cold picture this morning, 


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


 


Under average temperatures right to the the end.


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


As usual for some reason,  the 00z operational is not the best run, but the ensemble mean tells the story - and it is a cold one. 


New world order coming.
ITSY
15 January 2015 06:57:10
All true but it gives the east, London and the SE mostly rain until the tail end of high res, with the op and control ramping up multiple warm sectors across both fronts. Would be a shame if it panned out that way from a personal perspective (we'd have flooding as more of an issue than snow), but good for some out further west than us - at least according to the last two ops.
stophe
15 January 2015 07:10:03
Bit of a murr sausage this morning on the ecm.
kmoorman
15 January 2015 07:10:09

All true but it gives the east, London and the SE mostly rain until the tail end of high res, with the op and control ramping up multiple warm sectors across both fronts. Would be a shame if it panned out that way from a personal perspective (we'd have flooding as more of an issue than snow), but good for some out further west than us - at least according to the last two ops.

Originally Posted by: ITSY 


 


Yes, down here it's a balancing act between low pressure racing in from the NW and a long enough delay to allow colder air to become entrenched over the South.  


It would be  a wasted opportunity were it to be rain down here.


 


 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
doctormog
15 January 2015 07:24:33
I think many in the east would see cold rain, based on this morning's output. With elevation and luck it could be more wintry. So a chilly rather than bitterly cold outlook after the next day or so.
Gooner
15 January 2015 07:36:52

Reasonable agreement in assessment of 00z UKMO and other output for the scope of Mon-Tues evolution but still only broad-brush detail possible. Without describing all the detail, we expect essentially a risk of (perhaps significant) snow Wales/Midlands northwards. Marked uncertainty how long the cold weather lasts before a return to around average temperatures.


 From IF on NW
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Brian Gaze
15 January 2015 07:42:05

In the south I'm seeing this:



In the Midlands:



In the north:



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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