Not Sure why there is a downbeat mood in here this morning, the pattern is broadly the same, no way you can say it will snow or wont snow in any sort of detail this morning, the last two runs were snowmaggeddon this mornings runs are a little more moderated but the pattern is there and the potential for some big snow is still very much on the cards.

Only worth paying attention to snow in detail on Monday to be honest. just look at what happened on Tuesday night this week.

In the 06z it will change yet again - no need to panic yet.

Correct

If GEFS is to believed the cold apell will not last very long.

at 168h (22nd Jan 60% show Scan HP.)The key to longevity is where that HP is located.

by 240h (25 Jan ) 60% of ENS have Atlantic flow with around 30% SH and similar split at 360h.

So really we need to see the scandi hp HP in place,further west and a bit stronger to get ap prolonged cold spell.

I think the FI pattern has trended colder this morning though regardless,

I'm not looking for the break down I'm personally looking for snow and there's not much point past 48hrs. details will change in such short notice.

looking at the BBC weather for London it is saying 6c on average next week and mostly dry

I bet you wouldn't have said that after the 12z and 18z runs yesterday 

Inputting a lot of locations from all around the UK..you get the same result. No point in looking to far ahead..it could very well be a nowcast or t24 situation next week.

And if EPS is to be believed the cold spell will rumble on and on. Yesterday's control run was a peach, with a couple of days having sub -10 850s for most of us, then once that NE'ly spell is over there's a reload from the north.

You know the outlook is cold when the operational run is a mild outlier... and it shows highs of +6C!

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

It remains, of course, to be seen whether this morning's ECM ensembles show the same sort of picture. As it happens I'm off work today so I'll post the 0z Reading ensembles as soon as they're out...

I don't think the charts are a downgrade at all more a moving around of weather systems that alter conditions at the surface.

Essentially a cold spell is coming but a severe cold spell wasn't really on the cards yesterday and still isn't, how long it lasts is still up for grabs.

My approach is to divide the spell into 3 and concentrate on each at a time.

1. The weekend north westerly and where snow falls as features move south, west looks best here and Wales best of all.

2. The sliders early next week, far to early to predict any snow locations so don't even bother but will make for tense model watching and plenty of IMBY posts as some get rain, some get snow and some (probably me) stays dry.

3. Later next week on beyond, what happens after the sliders? Easterly or back to zonality? Again far to early to tell but I reckon the MetO favour a return to zonality but only by a short margin.

Whichever way you look at it it's better than a 10 day Bartlett!!!

Andy

Here's today's 0z ECM ensembles - pretty much exactly as they were yesterday. (12z yesterday on the left, 0z today on the right.)

Median high temperatures from 15th:

14/12 7 / 5 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
15/00 8 / 5 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 3

Once again the ECM mean is colder than the Op. Still marginal for the South but the right side I would say. Most of the UK -5c or below until day 9.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem482.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem722.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem962.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1442.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1682.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY JANUARY 15TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY JANUARY 16TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep depression near Northern Scotland will fill slowly over the next 23-48 hours as it drifts slowly NE. A cold and showery Westerly flow will become established across the UK.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Cold and frosty with chances of showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow remaining South of the UK for the foreseeable future. In the first half of the period it drifts SE towards the Meditteranean maintaining the UK on the cold side of the flow, though depressions deepening North of the UK later will change the airflow to polar maritime variety later with rain and stronger winds from the west bringing more in the way of rain rather than snow away from the hills.

GFS NEW OPERATIONAL The GFS operational projects a week to 10 days of rather cold and unsettled weather as the UK lies under a cold trough fuelled by a Jet stream South of the UK and sinking Low pressure troughs down from the NW. The pattern then flattens through Weeek 2 as the Jet flow moves back North in a West to east flow across the UK powered by deep Low pressure back north of the UK with rain and showers for all in nearer to average temperatures.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows a very similar sequence of events as Low pressure disrupting SE across the UK brings unsettled and cold conditions with sme snow in the North and East and cold rain elsewhere. Later in the period the pattern flattens as deep low pressure North of the UK drives less cold West winds across the UK with a return to polar maritime type conditions with rain and wintry showers at times thereafter..

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show good support for the UK to lie under strong Westerly winds with rain at times two weeks from now with colder showery periods mixed in between milder and wetter periods. There is a 10% chance only of a strong Scandinavian Anticyclone with the balance of the rest of members supporting cold NW winds and wintry showers.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows cold weather as we move into next week fuelled by Low pressure slipping South just to the West of the UK and bringing a risk of sleet and snow to Northern and Eastern parts though more likely to be rain over Southern and Westernmost parts.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Chartsshow a cold and eventually quite slack flow across the UK. Troughs meandering around the sea waters around the UK will meander South affecting inland areas at times with a push of milder Atlantic winds towards Western parts on a front as we move into next week.

GEM GEM today also shows a cold and unsettled period lasting up to a week or more as cold Low pressure areas sink SE across the UK through next week with rain and snow at times. The model then shows a High pressure ridge crossing SE with cold and dry weather gradually becoming less cold from the NW ;ater as more westerly winds start to encroach down across the UK at then end of the period.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure sliding down across the UK next week ending up South of the UK with an easterly flow on the Southern flank of a ridge of High pressure developing across the North. So some rain and snow for many next week gradually drying out from the North later next week as the ridge extends it's influence South later.

ECM ECM this morning is arguably the best run for longevity of cold weather across the UK as it pulls cold Low pressure down over the UK next week in already cold surface air with a real risk of appreciable snowfall in places, though rain probable for a time in Southern and Western parts. Later in the period a strong ridge linking an Atlantic High to an European High sets up cold and unstable Easterly winds across the South late in the run with no doubt snow showers across the East and South and widespread severe frost for all.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart at first sight shows a strong ridge across the UK to Scandicavia. This is most likely to be made up of a mixture of options as Low pressure is still held over the Meditteranean and weak Low pressure to the NW. To me this indicates a rather cold pattern still with only a muted chance of Atlantic Westerlies returning in the timescale. For continued cold beyond Day 10 though we need Low pressure maintained down over the Med to act as a catalyst in keeping the Jet flow well South over Europe.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning compared to my previous report yesterday morning has increased the chances of a rather longer cold spell next week. There is still strong support for a resurgence of the Atlantic Westerlies later ending the spell though ECM goes for a more sustained cold period lasting several weeks.

MY THOUGHTS The interest on this morning's output will no doubt hinge on how the upcoming period firstly develops cold weather over the UK and how it maintains or ends it later in the output period. Despite a lack of the usual ingredients of a Scandi or Greenland High it does look the UK will fall under a very cold spell next week as cold Arctic winds from the North slip down across the UK. Inland winds will be often light and this will allow deep cold to develop especially where any snow lies with severe night frosts. Near coasts there will be a lot of unstable air aloft snow showers will be prevalent and as disturbances in the flow sink South these could be drawn inland at times almost anywhere. Then as we  move through the early days of next week all models support a disruption in a push of Atlantic air towards Western Britain which leads to the risk of snow for some. On current thinking Southern and Western parts could be just on the too mild side to see snow from this with rain more likely at least for a time but parts of the North and East could see a lot of snow as the milder air engages the cold in the shape of low pressure sinking SE away from the South into NW Europe later. It all depends on the track and depth of the Low which will be determinate in where and how much snow falls. In any event later next week pressure rises to the North, NE and NW which may well give several days of cold East winds for all with snow showers for the East in particular. Then many of the longer term projection models indicate Atlantic Westerlies may regain control though ECM does look best for longevity for cold today as in 10 days time the UK lies locked in an Easterly flow with a strong ridge to the North along with a relatively inactive Atlantic. So all in all it's been a long time getting here but cold and snow lovers should be quite happy with the output today as we see our best chance yet of cold and for some snowy conditions than we have seen for several years and lasting for a week or so at least.

I, for one, am glad to see the Atlantic Storm Machine being put to sleep for a while.

are these as accurate as the BBC temperature 😀

They're the most accurate charts we have access to. (MOGREPS will be better, but we don't get to see charts for those).

Couldn't really ask for more from the ECM mean this morning....

Surely downgrades are as likely as upgrades?   Unless there's an inherent bias with the way the models deal with these synoptics of which I am not aware.

Yes similar to Jan 13 I would say we just need a bit of luck now. Ian Fergusson on NW saying the ECM has some snow for the South Mon/Tues. 

LOL

Always the optimist