Actually looking at that, the mean is higher because the nights are slightly warmer. Possible snow showers on an easterly ?

Classic cloudy temps in a coldish easterly.

Another variation of the same overall theme from GFS 6z. A 1 week cold spell at least, with snow around for some and some very cold minima and maxima away from any cloud.

Beyond that anything could happen, with the extremes being the Azores High exerting it's influence again and returning average temperatures to the possibility of a strengthening Scandi High set up with heights lowering to our SW (as per last night's GFS 18z). The 6z is kind of a half-way house; the Azores High stays put but the Scandi High sinks to sit over us before a gradual return to Atlantic weather in deep FI.

Interesting times indeed. 

Half way house is about right. GEFS 06h shows a continuing battle for influence between the Azores and Scandi HP.

At 168h the majority of ENS are Scandi HP or slider low,with mild Atlantic down to 20%.Position of Scandi HP a llittle further west

By 240h its fifty:fifty between Scandi HP influence and the Atlantic train and by 360h 80:20 in favour of the Atlantic.

I've seen Scandi HP's evaporate before so until i see one on a METO fax with one on it I'll not get too excited.

Tweet from Ian Fergusson a short while ago:

Sounds about right, no particular deep freeze for the southern portion of the UK as it stands on the models today. A marginal week ahead for snow for the south but it could come good.

Snow accumulation reduced for the south today.

From a selfish point of view, this is what I want to be seeing, warmer air across the south means a greater chance of seeing snow in the north from the LP. Anyway some pretty impressive totals still in the offering, although most of the heavy snow cover is over high ground with typically a couple of cms in the south to perhaps 5-10cm in the north at best. I think this is a reasonable representation of the amount of snow that can be expected in the best case, with significantly higher/lower totals locally.

As people have pointed out, don't take these too literally!

That's what I'm expecting in Torquay. Rain here on the coast with some wintery precipitation inland, colder than usual but never overly cold maybe 3-4c nightime sometimes lower but no freezing weather. A bit of a no-mans-land really, cold but not too cold.

Similar for here. Not particularly cold. Temps a couple of degrees below average day and night. Not expecting any snow at all from this setup, but it's already been pointed out it's knife edge, although as things stand right at this moment, it doesn't look snowy for here at all. Further north is another matter. 

Comparison between the EC and UK at 144hr

EC has a much more developed low, a strong occluded front represents the boundary between polar maritime and polar continental air, this is a warm occluded front with more characteristics of a warm front; so any snow is more likely on the leading edge, south of the front it will be still cold and showery, but wintry precipitation restricted to the hills. A feature in the far north threatens scotland, this could give a few snow showers to the far north.

Now compare with the UKMO, the occluded front is weaker and less active, as upper level cold runs over the front it looses strength over time. Precipitation is generally rain, with some hill snow on its leading edge. A weak warm front introduces some moist slightly milder air from the near continent, this would have a lot of low cloud but next to no precipitation on it. 

Ian Fergusson's latest tweet firms up on what I posted above. Not really what I would class as a proper cold spell. Not for here anyway. Average temps. 

W COUNTRY CONT'D It'll be first rather prolonged cold phase since March '13. Temps rtn to about average gradually, within next ca. 10-15d

This upcoming spell looks so marginal I am struggling to imagine seeing any significant wintry weather locally out of this. On the bulk of the GEFS the night time minima barely drop below zero at the start of it and rise steadily thereafter. Soil temperatures are high after the mild weather, so if any snow does make it to the ground and manage to settle it's going to be thawing rapidly from above and below.

The fundamental problem is that however good the synoptic setup around the UK there is just no sufficiently cold air within striking distance of the UK to tap into to produce a decent wintry spell.

We may get a couple of bites at the cherry, but as we are in mid-January, time tends to start running out (as March 2013 was a once in a 200 year event), so all in all, looks like another winter will pass us by.

Are we leaving out Feb altogether then moomin  BTW I had snow in Feb 2013 

Today is near enough the half way point of Winter ..................isnt it?

Yes..and a football match is a game of two halves, you can lose the first half and be trailing but you can always come out fighting in the 2nd half and win that half 

...Sorry for OT I just don't class Summer as running out in Mid-July etc.

Darren or someone else may correct me, but I think there was more deep cold pooling to our north and east during the cold spells in 2009/10 and Dec 2010 than at least the first half of next week. The 21st (issh)Dec snowfall in 2009 was more marginal in the south but it had been preceded by colder uppers.

I wonder what response I will get when I come in here and post Summer is over on July 15th

Hi all

Here's today's video update; Next Week's Cold and Snow + Cold February;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

JMA going for big blocking in Feb! 

I know you've got your depressive mood hat on, but that really is pretty amazing considering we're only halfway through winter and we've a cold spell on the way!

March 2013 gave a couple of dustings of snow here, so although it was unusual it wasn't something I'll look fondly on in years to come. The end of February/beginning of March 2005 delivered half a foot of snow here  and it snowed every day for 14 days in a row. That's a good 7 weeks yet in which we can get deep snow which hangs around down here. Of course, by then the sun's heat starts to kick in but as long as you have cold enough air aloft, low enough dewpoints and most importantly frequent top-ups....

In the run-ups to 2009 and 2010 there were plenty of ensemble runs going for -10C at 850 for London, albeit only for short spikes. There have been fewer this time around. Also back then the 850s averaged out at around -7C, whereas this time they're clustering around -5C. That said, as long as dewpoints are low enough snow would be perfectly possible with -5C 850s!

There is a month called February in between January and March on my calendar.

Something like "Gooner, what are you doing in here in summer?"

Average temps?!!  I think not...