Some people need to look at the bigger picture. We're heading into the first bite of something as we head into Feb IMO
Look at the NAO index:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

It dips into next week before rising weakly positive, then starts to bounce negative again at the end.

Not just the 06z in isolation though is it? - each successive model run has downgraded the duration and intensity of this spell it appears.

I think people are going way over the top here, several cold runs and everything is dandy, 2 bad runs and 'its all over'. Give it time, and let's see if we get upgrades tonight. 

LOL. Are you serious? Or an elaborate wind up? Far far from anything being decided yet. Was the up and coming cold spell signalled at this time last week?

Well yes.  Perhaps this is just the first of a few attempts to establish a northern block?   

We're all going to get a bit IMBY'ist when it comes to snow. Up until yesterday, several runs from more than one model were forecasting decent snowfall for large swathes of the UK (esp NW England, Wales, W Mids), beginning later today, then going through the weekend and into  next week.

Now there's been a backing away from this, especially from cheerleader-in-chief for this set-up, GFS, with all models now pointing toward conditions that are not only milder/rainier, but also drier.

It's all very well looking at the bigger picture and saying 'little has changed overall', but when the little change that has taken place means that you are no longer forecast the heavy snow you were previously forecast, and instead will be largely dry, with only a mix of rain, sleet & snow to look forward to, then it really is a downgrade personally.

You are very predictable my friend

According to this particular Operational run from GFS

I have been around this forum for many years, and try to command a bit of respect with my posts where possible.

Appreciate I am a very pessimistic person, but this is borne out of realism rather than depression at what models show.

However, I base my comments on what is the "norm" in this country. That is, once models start picking up on milder trends, they tend to take the baton and run with it.

The same can rarely be said if it's the other way around. Cold spells tend to get downgraded. Not every time, granted, but how many times over the last 7-8 years have we been here, seen stella cold runs, steadily downgraded to a bog standard cooler than average winter snap.

This is what I am trying to get across on my posts. I apologise if they come across as kneejerk and negative, they are not meant to. I am not Codge, or SWZephyr.

Believe me, I would much rather be in the Tom Presutti camp of cold rampers, but I just can't get enthused by what I have seen over the last couple of days.

The reason I did not get drawn into the stella charts we saw a couple of days ago was because they just did not look plausible to me. I don't know why, just gut instinct I guess.

I would say that despite my pessimism, there is every chance this is the "first bite" of the cherry for colder conditions later in winter.

What I also meant though by my comment yesterday regarding February and March, was I would rather have seen this "first bite" in December, not mid January, because otherwise we are highly likely to finally get the classic, perfect winter charts in March, which (2013 aside) are no good to many, who by then are just gearing up for spring mode.

I am playing a watching brief, commenting on the charts that are being churned out, and yes, looking at the worst case scenario.

I've always had the attitude of "prepare for the worst" and "hope for the best". It's served me pretty well over the years.

Let's see what transpires over the coming weeks, but in my view, we are running out of time for the very best winter synoptics to be delivered in a winter month.

By the time the cherry has been bitten enough times, it could well be March - that's all I was trying to get at.

Please don't shoot me down for my views. Those that know me, know my enthusiasm for all this is right up there. I didn't spend the last 7 years producing winter LRFs for nothing. They took me a lot of time and effort, and I am gutted I didn't have the time to do one this year.

I did expect January to be a much colder than average month, however, and I just can't see this little cool snap digging us out of what is an exceptionally mild month so far.

Exactly. I don't see the need for negativity. There's unlikely to be anything too noteworthy from this spell but we are only a couple of days past the halfway point of winter! I suspect Feb could be good.

Speaking personally, my pessimism (for my locale) is based on more than one GFS run, as well as on other sources (like the MetO forecasts).

I don't know how next week will pan out because - as people rightly point out - weather 'on the ground' will be subject to much change. And I've never mentioned a breakdown.

However, I can say that the heavy snow that was, up until late yesterday, being forecast for NW England/W Mids/Wales for this weekend (you know, like tomorrow and the day after) has massively been downgraded.

Always the bloody downgrade...

Exactly. Too many here, it seems, sound like they are suffering from bipolar (maritime) disorder 

Keep up the good work with the bespoke analysis maps, by the way, Quantum. Enjoying those!

I haven't seen a change on a beeb forecast?? Last night H Willets was still saying and showing graphics of the 'slider'

O/T

Saturday:

Breezy and cold with sunshine and scattered wintry showers, mainly in the north and west, locally heavy and thundery. Further snow likely in northern and central areas, especially over hills.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Cold, with sunshine and wintry showers, mainly affecting windward coasts. Overnight frosts with fog and icy patches. Outbreaks of rain, sleet or possibly snow in southeast Sunday and west Tuesday.

Not much has changed..........has it??

Catch up?

This is this mornings UKMO

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Has it change that much in 6 hours ???

I think it's just a blip in the models!?

Yes. If you're excited by these, then....

I think what has happened is that GFS and one or two other models that were showing a snowfest for certain regions, have fallen into line with the UKMO/ECM and a couple of others who, whilst showing colder conditions, never bought into the heavy snow scenario at all.

But worth the discussion

I understand that Martin, all I'm saying is H Willets last night was showing the set up that this mornings UKMO is?

That hasn't changed.

Am I reading this correctly? the winds coming from a more Northerly earlier than the forecast maps/apps suggest on Sunday?

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/16/basis06/ukuk/uv85/15011809_1606.gif