http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011912/UN144-21.GIF?19-17

Eyes down for the next so called cold spell 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

Thats a very snowy FI this time on the GFS. With LP in a zonality formation, but further south - exposing the northern side of the LPs to more of the UK

Whats strikes me this time is how weak the Azores/Atlantic HP seems to go. Which would fall in line with some discussion on here ( i think stemming from Tamara) about its influence backing off... FI rolls with that idea quite nicely.

Would also introduce a snowier trend which has always been lacking these past few weeks,

Will be interesting to see the Ensembles to work out how that factors in with the snow stamps/snow row. :)

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Always nice to look forward to another one indeed, especially while we're in the middle of this one.

I have to applaud our members in being mature enough to recognise that a cold spell doesn't always equate to having widespread snowfall ( a great bonus if it happens). I'm not sure we'd have seen the same behaviour on other forums .........  

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

18z looks fairly blocked would be amusing if the high held out unlikely but who knows

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Shall I do the honours?

Fergie on NW few minutes ago..

Some similarly colder/more meridional phases also signalled in EC-EPS but crucially, they sit embedded as transient entities in an otherwise strongly mobile pattern, which remains firm in latest EC Monthly (now looking out to mid-Feb), with prevailing story essentially of strong low pressure anomaly to N and scant signal for any high latitude blocking. Now, there is always room for suspicion that a zonal bias may prevail at longer range; nonetheless, the combined cross-model evidence *as it stands* tallies with current thoughts on teleconnectors from UKMO-GGU, who note how:
* current cold phase suspected to be a hybrid result of strong MJO phase 6 and earlier minor sudden stratospheric warming;
* MJO now waning; no further MJO influence expected as a teleconnective player for UK into medium range;
* no or very muted signal for any SSW into medium range, which is interesting, as at odds with typical SSW drivers recently or currently at play (MJO phase 6/easterly QBO/Oct-Nov Eurasian snow cover)
* however, whilst this is recognised as enigmatic, the "significantly reduced" prospect of SSW against average is argued to demonstrate that "...no great significance should be attached to these (above) empirical predictors" (in current situation).

Now, as we all know, pattern change 'surprises' can and do occasionally happen, but we await any *compelling* evidence of such to appear repeatedly and coherently in output. However, for now at least, the above comments summarise the *anticipated* road ahead but I'll try to offer further updates periodically over coming weeks.

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

Shall I do the honours?

Fergie on NW few minutes ago..

Some similarly colder/more meridional phases also signalled in EC-EPS but crucially, they sit embedded as transient entities in an otherwise strongly mobile pattern, which remains firm in latest EC Monthly (now looking out to mid-Feb), with prevailing story essentially of strong low pressure anomaly to N and scant signal for any high latitude blocking. Now, there is always room for suspicion that a zonal bias may prevail at longer range; nonetheless, the combined cross-model evidence *as it stands* tallies with current thoughts on teleconnectors from UKMO-GGU, who note how:
* current cold phase suspected to be a hybrid result of strong MJO phase 6 and earlier minor sudden stratospheric warming;
* MJO now waning; no further MJO influence expected as a teleconnective player for UK into medium range;
* no or very muted signal for any SSW into medium range, which is interesting, as at odds with typical SSW drivers recently or currently at play (MJO phase 6/easterly QBO/Oct-Nov Eurasian snow cover)
* however, whilst this is recognised as enigmatic, the "significantly reduced" prospect of SSW against average is argued to demonstrate that "...no great significance should be attached to these (above) empirical predictors" (in current situation).

Now, as we all know, pattern change 'surprises' can and do occasionally happen, but we await any *compelling* evidence of such to appear repeatedly and coherently in output. However, for now at least, the above comments summarise the *anticipated* road ahead but I'll try to offer further updates periodically over coming weeks.

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

Winter appears dead in the water.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Shall I do the honours?

Fergie on NW few minutes ago..

Some similarly colder/more meridional phases also signalled in EC-EPS but crucially, they sit embedded as transient entities in an otherwise strongly mobile pattern, which remains firm in latest EC Monthly (now looking out to mid-Feb), with prevailing story essentially of strong low pressure anomaly to N and scant signal for any high latitude blocking. Now, there is always room for suspicion that a zonal bias may prevail at longer range; nonetheless, the combined cross-model evidence *as it stands* tallies with current thoughts on teleconnectors from UKMO-GGU, who note how:
* current cold phase suspected to be a hybrid result of strong MJO phase 6 and earlier minor sudden stratospheric warming;
* MJO now waning; no further MJO influence expected as a teleconnective player for UK into medium range;
* no or very muted signal for any SSW into medium range, which is interesting, as at odds with typical SSW drivers recently or currently at play (MJO phase 6/easterly QBO/Oct-Nov Eurasian snow cover)
* however, whilst this is recognised as enigmatic, the "significantly reduced" prospect of SSW against average is argued to demonstrate that "...no great significance should be attached to these (above) empirical predictors" (in current situation).

Now, as we all know, pattern change 'surprises' can and do occasionally happen, but we await any *compelling* evidence of such to appear repeatedly and coherently in output. However, for now at least, the above comments summarise the *anticipated* road ahead but I'll try to offer further updates periodically over coming weeks.

P.S The toys and prams will be swinging about that's for sure  << added by me and not Fergie 

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

at a temp at work of 0.3c today and currently -4c tonight and probably not much above freezing tomorrow..................................I guess you are correct.

Although you were saying yesterday we were having temps of 5c-7c this week?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

So the SSW theories over on NW are all cobblers too (much talk on their of imminent warmings to finish off the vortex).

Originally Posted by: John p 

This is meant to be an observation rather than a criticism, but I find Ian's posts incredibly hard to decipher. It's almost like he's scanned a thesaurus to find the most obscure words for each meaning. I know he reads this forum and has posted occasionally, so if he reads this - Ian, we're not all degree level forecasters. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H