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Gavin P
20 January 2015 12:30:45

Hi all,


Here's today's main video update;


Return Of The Westerlies End Of January


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/


Looks like we're going to end January very much as we started it.


Also has a look at the Strat and tonight's snow situation (if it really warrants the term "situation"  )


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Jonesy
20 January 2015 12:56:31

As you know I usually love posting them snow maps and accumulation ones etc but I think for tonight/tomorrow's one I won't and will just watch the radar and look out the window.


i was surprised this morning's few flakes made it this far Inland from the South tbh, I thought it was just a South Coast event.


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Gooner
20 January 2015 13:18:09


 Given the uncertain synoptics, any snow tonight is going to be more of a "nowcast" event than usual. Some people may get something when they were not expecting it and vice versa.


We will just have to see how it pans out over the next 24 hours.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Seems about right.


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
20 January 2015 13:19:19

A lot of interest today in FI, atlantic getting up to go to the toilet, not properly waking up. 


By the time we get to saturday (when the cold spell truly ends) 240hr will be 120hr, I think it could be worse. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
soperman
20 January 2015 13:22:02


A lot of interest today in FI, atlantic getting up to go to the toilet, not properly waking up. 


By the time we get to saturday (when the cold spell truly ends) 240hr will be 120hr, I think it could be worse. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Love it. That really is a positive spin on FI

Rob K
20 January 2015 13:22:53


A lot of interest today in FI, atlantic getting up to go to the toilet, not properly waking up. 


By the time we get to saturday (when the cold spell truly ends) 240hr will be 120hr, I think it could be worse. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Interest? Where? I see a big fat Azores high and a Scandi trough. Coolish westerly/northwesterly flow the order of the day.


 


eg from GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif


and from ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jonesy
20 January 2015 13:31:04

Sorry for OT post but regarding snow for the SE on facebook met office issued this reply to someone regarding the chart below...


 


Met Office: Hello ******, chance of a light snow shower in the south east but nothing that will accumulate.


 



Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
soperman
20 January 2015 13:46:05


Sorry for OT post but regarding snow for the SE on facebook met office issued this reply to someone regarding the chart below...


 


Met Office: Hello ******, chance of a light snow shower in the south east but nothing that will accumulate.


 



Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


 


All rain and no transient snow south of Birmingham according to Stav BBC 1:30 forecast

Kev71
20 January 2015 13:55:03

Well according to met office predictions we could get anything between 1" to 6" here in Sheffield. 

Frost Hollow
20 January 2015 14:11:18


 


Interest? Where? I see a big fat Azores high and a Scandi trough. Coolish westerly/northwesterly flow the order of the day.


 


eg from GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif


and from ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


That will do for me 

Maunder Minimum
20 January 2015 14:24:22


 


 


All rain and no transient snow south of Birmingham according to Stav BBC 1:30 forecast


Originally Posted by: soperman 


Brave forecaster - only has to out 100 miles either way to come a cropper.


New world order coming.
Kev71
20 January 2015 14:34:10

The word "uncertainty" was used in the forecast I have just seen on the bbc website. 

kal
20 January 2015 14:56:57

In great shape for snow tonight across the Midlands!

soperman
20 January 2015 14:57:12


The word "uncertainty" was used in the forecast I have just seen on the bbc website. 


Originally Posted by: Kev71 


 


Except the images were all of rain in the south.  Despite the forecast, I am expecting to see some snowfall as we are fairly elevated but only very temporary accumulation, if any.


 


 


 

soperman
20 January 2015 15:02:13


In great shape for snow tonight across the Midlands!


Originally Posted by: kal 


 


Hi Kal and welcome to TWO.  It would be helpful if you could put your location in your profile so we can see where you are.  

The Beast from the East
20 January 2015 16:37:32

A cold NW regime next week. Better than nothing


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012012/gfsnh-1-204.png?12


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 January 2015 16:40:47

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012012/gfsnh-0-216.png?12


Irony could be we get more snow from this sort of set up than we are currently seeing today


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 January 2015 16:42:56

Trough moves very quickly into position east of UK on this run


Hopefully a new trend picked up


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Russwirral
20 January 2015 16:43:35

Looking at the GFS 12z - This occuluded front could end up providing 24 hrs of snow as it pivots slowly - to some lucky parts of the north midlands/Northeast wales/North west england... albeit fairly light snow.

Looks like it will decay though - so it will really be a lucky few spots.


The Beast from the East
20 January 2015 16:44:40

LOL


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012012/gfsnh-0-228.png?12


Always good to see another cold spell on the horizon when current one is coming to an end


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 January 2015 16:47:56

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012012/gfsnh-0-240.png?12


Hopefully the dreaded Azores high will stay away


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
20 January 2015 16:52:05
Yes I mentioned the tendency for cooler conditions being shown in "FI" after the upcoming breakdown and that trend is continuing. I would still include the caveats associated with uncertainty and the timescale but it looks like a milder blip before something cooler once again. It may be just more "cold zonality" or a general NWly flow but there is also the potential for more of a northerly component.

It is worth keeping an eye on ensemble data over the coming days. Before I get the same dismissals as yesterday, I am not predicting a wintry blast with high confidence. I am highlighting a trend to possible colder than average conditions once again a few days after the forthcoming breakdown.
colin46
20 January 2015 16:57:30

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif


shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Charmhills
20 January 2015 17:06:56

Yes I mentioned the tendency for cooler conditions being shown in "FI" after the upcoming breakdown and that trend is continuing. I would still include the caveats associated with uncertainty and the timescale but it looks like a milder blip before something cooler once again. It may be just more "cold zonality" or a general NWly flow but there is also the potential for more of a northerly component.

It is worth keeping an eye on ensemble data over the coming days. Before I get the same dismissals as yesterday, I am not predicting a wintry blast with high confidence. I am highlighting a trend to possible colder than average conditions once again a few days after the forthcoming breakdown.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed.


I just wish the Azores high would sod off!!


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Jiries
20 January 2015 17:10:13


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012012/gfsnh-0-240.png?12


Hopefully the dreaded Azores high will stay away


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


It never go away and from the chart I see other countries on the same zones don't have their problem like us with HP always in the wrong place giving us mild winters and cool summers.  Watch how the AZH shaped like it controlling and throwing LP over us instead of going to France, Spain or NW Africa. 

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