A cool zonality PM influenced flow looks possible but the GFS looks an extreme example. GFS 12z vs ECM ens

GFS

ECM ens mean

Best use the ensembles at that range.

...........in early summer for June to August.

There is some support from the ECM ensembles regarding a NW flow for that time period - we'll see if it strengthens on subsequent runs.

Source http://www.weerplaza.nl

It didn't last year though, or in 2013.

Back on topic, while the current colder spell looks like ending next weekend, the output at the moment going into the later part of January doesn't look especially mild to me, at least for northern parts of the UK. I certainly wouldn't rule out further snowfall for more northern areas at times from a NW airflow.

Only briefly as mentioned by D Betts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012012/ECH0-240.GIF?20-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012012/ECH1-240.GIF?20-0

A cold ending to ECM

It's just one part of the subtropical high pressure belt, which drives the jet stream. Caused by air sinking as it moves north from the tropics.

This link refers to the "Bermuda high", which is basically an extension of the Azores High. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/subtropical-highs

quite right Marcus, we should be back to square one before too much longer, alternating periods of milder and cooler interludes as per MetO updates. Nothing too cold or too mild in the pipeline- perhaps average or a tad below would best sum it up in the reliable timeframe. 

Certainly snow showers likely into NW (some feeding further southwards) on Saturday, but luckily the heavier frontal PPN looks to be all entrained within milder 'slice', with WBFL's (attached, 12z UKMO-GM) up at 600-800m+. However, it could yield a significant freezing rain hazard on crossing away from the UK into the continent

From IF on NW

Worth a watch

That's very reasonable from you Jas

According to the text books I have read the Azores/Bermuda High is supposed to sink south (actually south of the Azores) during some part the winter, taking the PFJ with it and allowing low pressure systems into Iberia and the Med from the west, and thus drawing colder air west on their northern flank. There has been  precious little sign of this supposed behaviour this winter or last. Whether this is part of a long term or even medium term trend it would be too early to speculate, but it certainly seems to be scuppering our chances of experiencing even transient wintry conditions across the bulk of lowland UK so far this winter, and for the whole of the last.

Back to the models, and there is absolutely no sign of any significantly cold air building up west of the Urals that we could tap into even if the Azores High played ball. All we can see is a succession of ridge trough cycles penetrating deep into Europe which gives no chance of any significant cold air build up. The prospects of wintry conditions for lowland Britain as things stand look pretty dismal, no matter how many JFF snowflake charts are posted in the days ahead.

Wont be any in the next 7 days I'd have thought , so that must be such a relief eh

Thanks to the two Robs. 

I'm tired now and just about to throw in the towel for this particular cold blip but before I retire to bed it must be noted that the GFS for 3 successive runs have brought up a spell of snow tomorrow afternoon from the SE with favourable parameters.

1-2cm will look pretty.

Nasty from the GFS 18z!

E4 is not seeing it at all Steve and has the SE dry tomorrow evening.
It'll all be over by Friday and we can have a rest from peering at lampposts for a week or so LOL.

The UK is there somewhere from the control, certainly some interest coming up

The ENS are showing a cold zonal look for the start of FEB

Thank goodness .

In all seriousness it will be time to recharge the batteries Neil.

There has been an awful lot of effort for very little return. 

Ecm not without interest, especially the 240 chart. Seems to have been a trend within the last few runs on this and the gfs of perhaps having the artic high poking its nose in through Greenland. It'll need watching for sure as i don't believe for a second that winter has finished with us this quickly. Look north then east.

The CFS between +650 and +750 also not without interest - but be quick, it'll be gone in a few hours

I'm pleased some of you saw a bit of snow yesterday, but after a few tantalising days output it's faded into a damp mess and as we move into a day's worth of an easterly drift (it might only get to +5 tomorrow here LOL), it's back to the 'cool' zonal pattern that's predominated winter so far.
Still this won't stop most of us from having a peek, regular as clockwork, in the hope of getting some decent cold in before the transition into Spring.

It seems like my idea that the atlantic is merely up in the night to go to the toilet might not be that far off, it doesn't stay zonal for long if the ensembles are anything to go by. Seems we have a crack at the true cold air aswell this time.