As you were people- play along nicely!

fergie post from this afternoon,

It does seem odd that considering we still have 9 days of January left, and then all of February - which is usually the coldest month of winter - people are talking about time running out?

Admittedly January is unlikely to deliver now, barring a big shift in the output, but even the conditions on the first couple of days of February, ie T240, are still utterly impossible to guess at considering the swings in model output of late.

Charts like this certainly don't lead me to think February can be written off.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

Just to show the control

Spot on Robbie

I predict this thread will be very quiet until the AH moves North and smowmaggedon arrives....................

in April

I think the charts are trying to hint at something of that sort from early Feb

A growing trend from the ECM

I know deep FI gazing is a bit of a fools game but it does throw up some pretty pixels from time to time. Personal favourite this time is probably this chappy:-

There's a nice intense cold pool just to our east which we just about get to tap in to. Plenty of instability about + cold  = nice

There's a few other Scandi HP options and a few mid lat blocks which bring cold air but nout too sustained before sinking off. All in all an interesting trend (it's been lurking out in the depths for a little while now) but obviously nothing more than vaguely interesting unless it starts being picked up and amplified and getting closer to reality...

Nearer term - alternating cool and mild days with some snow up North. Suspect it won't be too bad at all down my part of the world, with the cooler days being noteworthy for the warmth in the sun more than anything else.

Probably not as it is only one GEFS perturbation. The ECM on the other hand is pretty consistent and not dissimilar to the recent trend in the GFS output.

But worth a post and a mention IMO

Darn and there was me taking it as gospel and dusting down the sledge

I know it is extremely unlikely to even get close to verifying. As mentioned it is however an extreme version of a colder cluster of ens that has been evident for 2 of the 3 GFS runs today.

Likely to verify? 

No.

Worth keeping an eye on to see if said tentative minority signal gets stronger and closer to reality?

Why not imo - as long as you don't stick 'cold and snow starts here' on the calendar

Now nearer term as people have already said there's a growing trend for quite a cool or even cold North Westerly - but tbh whilst it'll be interesting for some it's not that interesting to me. I'd certainly expect our more Northern and Western members to be quite keen on current nearer term output though

 More important is the clear propensity for pattern change(s), something utterly absent this time last year when the Somerset Levels looked more akin to the Florida Everglades. As Tamara outlined, the potential players further ahead are varied, complex and continuing to prove enigmatic this winter. Indeed, UKMO Chief F'caster tells me his team met for an hour this morning solely to discuss global drivers, which remain tricky to correlate (versus climatology) with some longer M-R and monthly ensemble suites (as has been so all winter, making the GloSea5 performance thus-far all the more creditable).

From I F over on NW

Cool and changeable by the looks of it .

If the current model output has it right, it looks to me anyway that it won't be too long before there is more wintry weather up here. That sure looks like quite a strong NW/N airflow on the 192hr & 216hr charts on the ECM 12z; such set-ups in the past have produced a fair bit of snow in parts of Scotland, and not just on high ground.

Must admit I'm not good with what you need to get low level snow for your neck of the woods but the raw GFS data certainly suggests they'll be a fair few snow opportunities up there:-

There's a fair few more in the reliable range.

I'd assume as long as the lower levels don't get warmed too much by the Atlantic then anything -5 or below will do you

I was going to post something very similar but Ian has beat me to it

There remains little to convince me that the mobile pattern is about to be broken.

No idea 

Still a case of ECM vs GFS the former going for blocking, the later struggling. Personally I still think there is a very good chance of a cold spell, and the best chance all winter of a potent cold spell (not that this is 'high'). 

Q I can't see any meaningful HLB on ECM. As a rule of thumb I use, a true 'block' has to have a depth enough to raise heights at the 500mb level to 520dm or more (greens or above on meteociel scale). A surface high, such as the false highs you get over the higher topography of Greenland, is weak and transitory. Deep highs with height rises tend to be more robust and longer lasting.

For confidence in a mid-Atlantic or Arctic or even Scandy block, you need to see those greens and yellows or you can forget it (IMO)

Is there a simple version of this? .. Love the fact we get info from a pro but I have to be honest I never have a clue what it all means, it could be covering every single outcome possible and I wouldn't be none the wiser 

On the 12Z GEFS by 240 many of the ensembles do show some height rises, and I suspect the EPS are superior in that regard too. I take your point though, usually I look for the 552 isopleth hitting greenland, and no sign of that yet.