Last night's ECM control run was similar to yesterday's 0z run.

Note: in the following cold air refers to -5C or colder at 850, very cold air refers to -10C or colder at 850.

A deep and complex area of low pressure covers Scandinavia at 174, with cold NW'lies spreading across the UK. Cold air persists over the UK until 210, when some very cold air starts moving south over Scotland. The very cold air doesn't last that long, though, and by 228 a warm sector lies to the immediate west of the UK. It moves swiftly across western and SW England, bringing a spell of heavy snow for areas further north and west.

The low then dives SE'wards, drawing cold air across the UK once again. Another more potent warm sector moves SE'wards over western and SW areas at 264 and once again cold air is drawn across the UK in its wake.

A very cold plunge of air moves southwards at 270, covering most of the UK by 282. This persists until 294, then milder air slowly spills in from the west from 324 onwards.

Again, please don't take this as meaning I expect it to happen - I don't! However, as long as these sorts of runs are coming out there remains some potential for a colder, snowier outlook.

Morning Neil et al

Once again we find ourselves looking to the north-west for wintry options. Almost rinse and repeat to what we've had at times this winter although, despite the lengthening days, ambient conditions have improved regarding getting increasingly cold conditions into the UK in these set ups. Quite normal for late January and will continue to be the case as we head into next month due to thermal lag

I would hope for something down the line to bust us out of this pattern and into a cold blocked scenario as happened in 1983 which started with a southerly tracking low and ended up with a 2 week cold spell that buried East Kent 

Off topic and we appear to have a hack under way.

Fine if you're interested in Pandora charms and boots, but not good if you're looking for the weather LOL.
It at times like this I wish I still had keys to the axe cupboard and I would happily confine them to oblivion

Not of interest to much of the UK but for me personally, the scandi trough potential at the end of the week could be frustrating. The 18z was perfect in that it had the trough over the more northern parts with a NW flow here. The op was rather isolated though with the majority bringing the centre of the trough further south, this meaning I could be on the wrong side i.e drier with more of an E'ly component. Interesting to see how it unfolds.

thanks Quantum

My dream JCB chart

Just into FI then? 

I should probably PM this but DI Mog has identified the spam monster. It was the "barefoot jogging" thread that gave it away. 

Once bitten, twice shy?

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

There were times in many a winter past when a set like this would of created a fair degree of excitement.
Perhaps we are all a bit battled hardened and sensible these days?

GEM+240
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

ECM+240
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif


GFS+240
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012300/gfsnh-0-240.png?0?0


I posted these 48 hours ago to hint at the cross model support. Below are the charts advanced 48 hours. Still good support and a similar theme. the GEFS have gone markedly colder for the beginning of Feb this morning.

GEM+192
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1921.gif

ECM+192
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif


GFS+192
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012300/gfsnh-0-240.png?0?0
 

CMA and GEFS control similar 

Three runs on the bounce the Control has shown this

Hi Neil, it is pretty much what we have just had - looks good again for Scotland, not to get excited about much further south though.

dont worry Marcus, as soon as it enters reliable timeframe it will disappear!

LOL, trends and all that.... though perhaps worth keeping an eye on for you coldies.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY JANUARY 23RD 2015.

NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY JANUARY 24TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A couple of cold fronts will move SE across the UK through today and tonight followed by a cold NW flow ahead of a ridge of High pressure tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain at times but some drier spells too. Less cold. Turning more generally unsettled and very cold again later with snow in places, especially over the North and East.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK currently moving back South sharply over Europe in a weeks time setting up the UK and NW Europe very much on the cold side of the flow then positioned to the SW of the UK moving SE.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows progressively windier and changeable conditions as we move through next week. All areas will see spells of cold and bright conditions mixed with milder and cloudier spells with rain at times. Later in the week and more especially next weekend will see a more significant dip into strong and cold NW then North winds as Low pressure sinks South over Europe bringing wintry showers of sllet and snow to all areas for a time before at the very end of the period the winds steadily back West again renewing the changeable Westerly pattern of before.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is broadly similar to the operational in terms of sequence extending the cold period somewhat longer with perhaps more extensive snow or snow showers almost anywhere for a while before the milder Westerly winds resume late in the run with rain and windy weather at times.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show NW winds the likely position we find ourselves in both in 10 and 14 days time. The positioning of governing Low pressure driving this feed is crucial with many clusters supporting some very cold and wintry weather on a Northerly for a while mid term while the trend on the later period clusters support a less robust and milder West flow with some rain at times to end the period.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strengthening and increasingly chilly and unsettled WNW flow developing through next week with a fairly dry and chilly start of the week under a ridge being replaced by cloud, wind and rain midweek and colder conditions filtering down on a strong WNW flow later in the week with precipitation turning wintry in the North later.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of cold fronts moving East and SE across the UK around High pressure to the SW over the next 5 days with alternating spells of rain and milder air mixed with short periods of colder and clearer conditions with some wintry showers in the NW and frost at night in places.

GEM GEM today also deepens the strong and cold WNW flow late next week and weekend as Low pressure slips SE across the North Sea and NW Europe with strong and cold NW or North winds and wintry weather for many late in the period.

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme too with 5 or so days of modest conditions with some rain and brighter colder periods before more generally cold and unsettled weather arrive for all from the North late next week and weekend with some wintry weather for some especially the North.

ECM ECM this morning completes the set with a mix of alternating milder and chillier days through next week ahead of a dip into distinctly cold and wintry conditions powered by intense Low pressure over Europe feeding very cold NW and North winds and spells of snow showers or longer spells of snow later as further Low pressure feeds down into the cold air from the NW in 10 days time.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart today endorses the main output in promoting cold North winds across the UK in 10 days time in association with Low pressure over Scandinavia and High pressure to the SW.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a strong trend today for at least a temporary track into very cold and unstable North or NW winds and some wintry weather for the UK in a week or so.

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning we have to look North for our next impending spell of cold weather interest as the period of benign weather of the next 5-6 days changes to something of much more interest late next week. There will be 5-6 days of alternating periods of mild and damp weather between colder and brighter spells when frost at night may occur. Then later next week all output shows a sharp deepening of the trough over Europe developing into it's most powerful state this Winter so far. The net result for the UK will be to enhance and strengthen a WNW then NW r North flow driving ever colder weather South next weekend to turn all precipitation to sleet and snow in deeply unstable air. The period then looks like remaining cold with winds veering to North for a time with considerable snowfall for the North and East in particular with no doubt sharp night frosts. Then we have to look further into the distance to see what happens thereafter. Some output bring this sharp burst of Winter to a close quite quickly as a ridge from the West crosses the UK and backs winds to a milder Westerly with rain and wind at times while others including ECM look like sustaining cold rather longer as further pulses of cold Low pressure slips SE into the cold air across the UK later enhancing the risk of more extensive sleet and snow at times. It also shows a stronger build of pressure then over the Atlantic, insufficient at present but trending the right way. So all in all it looks like the cold fraternity will have every reason to be happy with the output this morning as cold weather has complete support from all models to arrive from the North next weekend with just the duration of such a spell open to doubt at the moment. I await further model runs in the coming days with interest.

thanks gibby some hope on the horizon for us coldies tho looks like last chance saloon  for anything decent as we head into the last phase of winter,  

The Canadian piece of the vortex looks too organised to allow pressure to build and sustain any northerly. Even the GFS control collapses the block that almost develops. We may have to wait till mid Feb for a proper block as Fergie mentioned but it may be a west based -NAO setup. So the block may set up too far west

Oh I'm not worried, just concerned for you

early morning post from fergie on NW. ------------  

Latest Exeter thoughts from modelling into 6+ days are:
- NW broad flow expected to remain first few days of Feb: high to west, trough to E
- Changeable conditions remain but with chance of quieter wx in south
- Signs of anticyclonic influence becoming more prominent later into Feb (combined GloSea5/EC Monthly signal) and NW flow diminishing
- However, this shift in pattern may not manifest as a very blocked scenario per se. Still v uncertain
- Weak signals for MJO to enter Phase 6 early Feb
- Weak signals for -ve NAO circa 10 days into Feb on
- SSW signal remains below climatological norm, but within this overall muted signal, GloSea5 shows an increased warming fraction next month. This being closely monitored. 

Could be looking at a similar event to Jan 28 2004