LOL Why?

alternating days of MILD and cooler weather in the reliable, thereafter anyone's guess. 

😜

I can't get excited at the potential cold snap next weekend despite stellar looking charts in FI. We've been here many times and cometh the hour those stellar charts will be like a poor mans malt whiskey, watered down beyond recognition. 

The stamp sequence I posted yesterday seems to be showing up today on the 0Z ECM, with a first reload resulting in a slightly stronger block. I still have a very good feeling about this cold spell, and while it may take some patience with the reloading, I think it is going to be a significant northerly at the very least. Not that the south does well from a northerly, but that a northerly can often become something more easterly. 

Not very cold for a northerly? - +7C for the SW!??

Have patience, some of that air mixed over the Atlantic. The proper cold air still lies to the north.

I think this one is different SC, notably because this is a proper arctic air mass, rather than polar maritime or even returning polar maritime based air masses. Of the cold snaps this one made me unaccountably more excited than the other two.  

another slight variation. Instead of a slider we have pressure trying to build but it will probably sink

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012306/gfsnh-0-240.png?6

If it does sink then I recon it will simply reload. I'm interested to know, do you agree with this interpretation StormChaser?

mmmm, just looked at that Beast and you could be right, though having taken another look I am now not too sure. Somehow that AZ needs bullying northwards, but I can't see a trigger for that. However the jet profiles need looking at before further comment. 

Interesting if it's cold your after- another tantalising carrot dangling in the jam pot of promises.

At the moment, the emerging Arctic setup days 7-10 is interesting, with a marked split of low heights and suggestions of a cross-polar flow pushing Arctic air toward the UK and NW Europe.

Details, on the other hand, are not so inspiring for those away from the north who are seeking some decent falls of snow, with the initial northerly not looking to pack enough of a punch as there is too much mixing out over the NE Atlantic.

So unless that initial northerly upgrades - most likely as a result of a stronger-mid Atlantic ridge if that was to happen - we are looking for another push from the north soon after that first one to bring something sufficient for snow to fall across lowland areas of England and Wales.

It's good to see some signs of this on recent op runs and in the ensembles, but there's a long way to go yet.

Ideally we could do with the trough over Europe being focused at least as far south as GFS, has it, followed by the ECM approach in which the upstream Atlantic low slides SE to merge with said trough and the mid-Atlantic ridge rebuilding behind.

That's how picky we have to be when northerlies are on the cards 

Have to say, the GFS 06z could have pulled that off quite easily had it allowed more of the disrupting trough to head SE rather than engage with another low arriving in the western North Atlantic.

Odds still in favour of a fairly short lived period cold enough for snow across more southern parts in particular... but there could be a very cold feel to the weather for 3 or 4 days beforehand if the NW/N winds turn out to be as strong as currently projected.

Obviously it's looking like a real taste of the Arctic for the north facing coasts of Scotland... some serious wind chill there!

Of course Jason you musn't fall into the trap that the OP is 'god'

Have people checked out the ensembles?

They are fantastic, the EPS particularly but also the GFS. It is coming! 

The train could be coming maybe..............................

A lot of uncertainty however. 

The Azores high at 8th Feb - http://modeles.meteociel.fr/.../2015012306/gfs-0-384.png.

Granted, it is a very, very, very long way off in forecasting terms but the trend is still there and ties in with the upper stratosphere profile. I'm already itching to break out the garden chair.

of course, but there is some ENS support. You should be happy with latest output Marcus- a very interesting weekend of model watching coming up. 

Just to reiterate a point earlier:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Interest for the North sure, but for the South only slightly below average (like the recent cold snap).

Charts look great but sadly not actually that cold.

There are some quite frankly ridiculous solutions on offer in the GFS ENS suite this morning.
I would however like to distract attention for a moment from the very cold options to what looks a more likely scenario and focus on some depicting a series of very deep lows moving directly east across the UK or even up from the South on a few runs.
It is feasible we are looking at stormy rather than cold to come. Or even both!

That'd be the dream. Storm force winds with very heavy snow for hours on end.

Unbeatable!!!

Unrealistic at least intensity.

Azores highs rarely are that intense even more so when in that position. 

Stop being a girl!

Seriously, I did think when I posted that you may be a dissenter

Hi all,

Here's today's video update -

Northerly Blast Next Weekend...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Potential northerly looks VERY potent but with the dreaded ***AH* not really changing it's position, it will probably be quite brief.

It's also JMA Friday of course. 

If that's as a result of a northerly? (Earlier posts) then it wouldn't necessarily be. Northerlies are usually crap for here if it's snow and cold you're after. From my point of view they can be superb. Plenty of sunshine and will feel warm in it.