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Wise word. I can sense the snow ramping already, and there's really very little suggestion away from favoured areas at this time. Cold - yes. Snowy? At this precise moment, not for the majority of England away from facing coasts and uplands.
Originally Posted by: Matty H
Personally I think a northerly down here is a total waste of time. Very rarely delivers anything.
I can't be doing with a biting cold northerly that brings nothing. I never understand why people like being so cold without snow.
On the plus side there is a continuing signal for a possible early start to spring down here on the latest GFS. Let's hope for once FI is right.
Control wants to build a Scandi high after the northerly is finished. Would be perfect!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012506/gensnh-0-1-264.png
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012506/gensnh-0-0-276.png
touching distance of a classic spell for the SE. Nothing better than lake effect and streamers for this part of the world
Couldn't agree more Matty. Looks like we will get a northerly and it will become cold but very little sign of snow away from favoured spots.
Originally Posted by: moomin75
LOL Comedy at its best mate
Gavs latest video reference Spring
Keep your woolly hat out , your and maybe a sledge lol
Speedo's no chance
From Russia with love
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012506/gensnh-0-1-288.png
Could do with it being higher latitude though
I'd go with the Control that is keen on an Easterly
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012506/gensnh-0-0-300.png
Much of western Europe plunged into a deep freeze.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012506/gensnh-0-1-324.png
Russian bear invades the EU
We need to top up the uppers but shades of Feb 1986. Largely dry and bitter but hopefully we would have some snow cover intact for a long time
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012506/gensnh-0-1-336.png
Reload of cold uppers. Good time for Putin to switch off the gas and teach the EU a lesson. LOL
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012506/gensnh-0-0-348.png
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
If that was how it would evolve , I'd settle for that
When does the control become the operational?
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Makes no odds..................does it?
At this stage it has to be a flip of a coin as to which is correct,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,surely?
Originally Posted by: Gooner
In your world Marcus all runs lead to cold nirvana.
Or in yours
" A deck chair and a pair of speedos "
IMBY alert - but this coming week is about the most depressing set of charts I've ever seen. :/
Originally Posted by: NickR
You're not alone by any means, despite some comments. Certainly little of interest for here at this precise moment. At THIS precise moment.
No not really. The Control is run with the same starting parameters as the Operational but at a lower resolution, in both horizontal and vertical grid spacing. The whole point of it is to illustrate the effect of resolution on result - when the two run together you have more confidence in a solution. The new Operational runs at an even higher resolution than before, but although the control still runs at a lower one I'm not sure if it to was upgraded on the 14th Jan.
In short, the Op should always be taken as the most likely result on any given run, with the Control and it's 20 suite members being used to determine the effect of resolution and the perturbation of starting conditions - and check the clusters!
I really can't get my head around how different the GFS is from the euros even at 144 hours. It develops a deep trough south of Iceland that is totally absent on ECM and UKMO.
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015012506/96-574.GIF?25-6
Later Wed and thurs look interesting. I keep waiting for these to be downgraded though as with the previous spell!
Early taste of spring next week?
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx
As Neil and many, many others have pointed out many, many times, as a forecasting tool they are virtually useless, other than maybe a guide as to where snow could fall in favourable conditions. Taking them specifically is a recipe for tantrums come the time.
The GEFS are expected to be upgraded this year. At the moment my understanding is the control run is exactly as it was before the GFS upgrade. I guess this means the physics of the control run are now different to the op run as well as being lower resolution, but both are initiated with unaltered data.