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Patrick01
26 January 2015 16:15:11


 


It's highly unlikely Polar Lows will be modelled in the NWP output. From past experience Fax output will be the ones to watch for signs of PLs, but I don't think the set-up covered by the Fax charts at this time range is conducive to PL development anyway.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


V true, Fax charts are the way forward from now on really for the itty bitty details I guess. 


 


Seems a wee bit better for a shorter less cold period going into the weekend on GFS so far. 

The Beast from the East
26 January 2015 16:15:16

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012612/UN120-21.GIF?26-17


UKMO 120


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
26 January 2015 16:16:58

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-0-144.png?12


Another slight upgrade on the ridge, Good trends


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Matty H
26 January 2015 16:18:15

Re polar lows. Someone will clarify, but I'm pretty sure they are virtually nowcast events?


i also don't recall the last one that affected here. Someone will know. From memory, Darren (Retron) is pretty clued up on these 


Russwirral
26 January 2015 16:19:44


Re polar lows. Someone will clarify, but I'm pretty sure they are virtually nowcast events?


i also don't recall the last one that affected here. Someone will know. From memory, Darren (Retron) is pretty clued up on these 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


Yeh - i love them for that fact alone.  


 


I love reviewing the sat images for developments not being forecast.  Always good fun.


Arcus
26 January 2015 16:20:24


Re polar lows. Someone will clarify, but I'm pretty sure they are virtually nowcast events?


i also don't recall the last one that affected here. Someone will know. From memory, Darren (Retron) is pretty clued up on these 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I've seen them on Fax charts in the past Matty (short range though I think), back in the days of more regular Northerlies. If I can find one somewhere in the Fax archive (and I can be bothered!), I'll put it up.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
The Beast from the East
26 January 2015 16:21:20

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-0-156.png?12


I dont think anyone can complain about this run. Edge of reality now


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
26 January 2015 16:23:09

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-1-162.png?12


Brrr (as they say)


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
llamedos
26 January 2015 16:25:07


Re polar lows. Someone will clarify, but I'm pretty sure they are virtually nowcast events?


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

My understanding also


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
The Beast from the East
26 January 2015 16:25:08

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012612/UN144-21.GIF?26-17


UKMO 144


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Russwirral
26 January 2015 16:27:10
GFS 12z vs 6z

The Atlantic HP looks alot better - with more of top heavy feel to it - it looks to be reaching towards greenland in a very promising way so far :)

This could be a very special run.
NickR
26 January 2015 16:27:12


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-0-156.png?12


I dont think anyone can complain about this run. Edge of reality now


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Can someone remind me what the angle difference is between the lines and the actual direction of the flow? I seem to remember it is around 30°, but not sure which way. So the chart here is either a NNW or a NNE flow, rather than a straight N'ly, I think. Anyone? Or am I off on one :S


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
doctormog
26 January 2015 16:29:26


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-0-156.png?12


I dont think anyone can complain about this run. Edge of reality now


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I am not complaining. The tweaks have largely been in the right direction, and with the exception if Friday things look more on the right side of marginal than the wrong side (in terms of snow potential). 


If the air gets cold enough the disturbances and associated precipitation may follow. At this range though that is still pretty much conjecture and guesswork though.


moomin75
26 January 2015 16:30:21

Seen enough from the 12z's (UKMO and GFS up to edge of reality at 144) to say yes, it's going to be cold....probably very cold with the northerly winds, though not perhaps on the thermometer.
Certainly seems cold enough for snow nationwide if any features crop up. Currently, it does indeed look like a dry northerly (away from northern hills and the coasts), but as has been said, features can (and probably will in this unstable air flow), crop up anywhere, any time.
Five to seven days of cold weather with potential for snow will do me for now. I'm not going to work myself into a frenzy about when and where it *might* snow, but all I will say is, with the cold entrenched, it *COULD* snow just about anywhere - with little troughs, low pressures and other disturbances likely to crop up at very short notice.


 


Yes, this is unusually positive from me, and no, my account hasn't been hacked into, this is genuinely me...but all in all, quite positive now for a proper wintry spell with the threat of snow almost anywhere from Wednesday pm onwards.


Bring it on, and then let's have spring please!


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
The Beast from the East
26 January 2015 16:30:27

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-1-180.png?12


someone up there likes us


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
26 January 2015 16:32:19

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-1-192.png?12


Is this a Murr sausage on Viagra?


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
26 January 2015 16:34:02
Nick the wind direction is away from the centre of the high pressure and towards the centre of the Low (if that makes sense). So what looks like a true northerly with a High to the west and a Low to the east is actually more of a NWly.
kal
26 January 2015 16:34:37

Charts look amazing! A noteworthy cold spell coming up for sure!

stophe
26 January 2015 16:34:39

All eyes on this evenings ECM then. Should be interesting to see what it comes up with.Will it follow the gfs ?

Whiteout
26 January 2015 16:35:20


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012612/UN144-21.GIF?26-17


UKMO 144


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


LP key there, where will it go, hmmm


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
llamedos
26 January 2015 16:37:54


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-1-192.png?12


Is this a Murr sausage on Viagra?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

What an awful mental image that is  


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Snowedin3
26 January 2015 16:38:11


Seen enough from the 12z's (UKMO and GFS up to edge of reality at 144) to say yes, it's going to be cold....probably very cold with the northerly winds, though not perhaps on the thermometer.
Certainly seems cold enough for snow nationwide if any features crop up. Currently, it does indeed look like a dry northerly (away from northern hills and the coasts), but as has been said, features can (and probably will in this unstable air flow), crop up anywhere, any time.
Five to seven days of cold weather with potential for snow will do me for now. I'm not going to work myself into a frenzy about when and where it *might* snow, but all I will say is, with the cold entrenched, it *COULD* snow just about anywhere - with little troughs, low pressures and other disturbances likely to crop up at very short notice.


 


Yes, this is unusually positive from me, and no, my account hasn't been hacked into, this is genuinely me...but all in all, quite positive now for a proper wintry spell with the threat of snow almost anywhere from Wednesday pm onwards.


Bring it on, and then let's have spring please!


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


did  you just.. No You couldn't .. No... Nope :p


Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Whiteout
26 January 2015 16:39:25


Seen enough from the 12z's (UKMO and GFS up to edge of reality at 144) to say yes, it's going to be cold....probably very cold with the northerly winds, though not perhaps on the thermometer.
Certainly seems cold enough for snow nationwide if any features crop up. Currently, it does indeed look like a dry northerly (away from northern hills and the coasts), but as has been said, features can (and probably will in this unstable air flow), crop up anywhere, any time.
Five to seven days of cold weather with potential for snow will do me for now. I'm not going to work myself into a frenzy about when and where it *might* snow, but all I will say is, with the cold entrenched, it *COULD* snow just about anywhere - with little troughs, low pressures and other disturbances likely to crop up at very short notice.


 


Yes, this is unusually positive from me, and no, my account hasn't been hacked into, this is genuinely me...but all in all, quite positive now for a proper wintry spell with the threat of snow almost anywhere from Wednesday pm onwards.


Bring it on, and then let's have spring please!


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


That is a positive post from you lol, if I was somewhere like Buxton I would be getting the snow shovel out. Further south the sun glasses lol. Still looking marginal for the South apart from Wed/Thu until later in the GFS run - for a start those 850's need to be a notch or two lower.


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
nsrobins
26 January 2015 16:41:59

Well that feature running N to S later in the weekend is still there on the 12Z. Needs watching as it's running into established -8 air with -10s running in behind, and no discernible less cold sector his time.
This spell is developing into a long-burner.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whiteout
26 January 2015 16:43:24


 


That is a positive post from you lol, if I was somewhere like Buxton I would be getting the snow shovel out. Further south the sun glasses lol. Still looking marginal for the South apart from Wed/Thu until later in the GFS run - for a start those 850's need to be a notch or two lower.


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


Dp's also looking the wrong side of marginal!


Could be an amber warning for favoured spots up North coming though.


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

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