theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
28 January 2015 16:09:29

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Be nice to see the LP to the NW track a tad further Eastwards

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
28 January 2015 16:10:24
12Z looks considerably flatter in the Atlantic than 06Z.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Islander
28 January 2015 16:11:12

Monday's low looks like being just too far SW at the moment. Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif


 


Rob won't that be good for my location though??

Guernsey
Girthmeister
28 January 2015 16:15:54

Could be a nasty little feature on Friday morning...


Jonesy
28 January 2015 16:16:38


I'm in the process of updating this visualization to include other useful info. But anyway here is the lake effect potential for midnight tonight.



Values generally between 14 and 18. So the potential for some fairly hefty showers but probably nothing thundery (20C+ usually required). Possibly something a bit more interesting by the time we get to the weekend though on those very cold northerly winds...


 


No reds or yellows though unfortunately. You can still get thundersnow if all the other factors are good (sheer, fetch, inversion level) which they are, so if anything this is probably an underestimation. Also ofc if you get a feature that changes things as usual. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


What does it mean if your in the zone with a black box? 

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Gooner
28 January 2015 16:16:40

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Still decent from UKMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
28 January 2015 16:17:09


">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif

Originally Posted by: Islander 


 


Rob won't that be good for my location though??



 


Yup!


 


And this looks good for the east and indeed much of the country! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif


 


Check out that lot - bit of a warm sector of course....


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1384.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1444.gif

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
28 January 2015 16:18:38


Chance of some more widespread snow moving South

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
28 January 2015 16:20:18

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Another excellent run from UKMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whiteout
28 January 2015 16:22:04
Gooner
28 January 2015 16:23:28


Some cold air stuck over the UK

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whiteout
28 January 2015 16:24:12

Monday's low looks like being just too far SW at the moment. Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif


ditto UKMO:


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012812/UW120-21.GIF?28-17

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Gooner
28 January 2015 16:29:09


HP set up differently, fog and frost forming no doubt

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
28 January 2015 16:39:27


HP forms well to the NE

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nsrobins
28 January 2015 16:40:12


">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


ditto UKMO:


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012812/UW120-21.GIF?28-17



Just for once you'd hope something would go right. Nearly two years without a flake here and it's not too much to ask.
Mind you, that rough on Tuesday looks quite potent and no issues with marginal warm sectors in that one. I'll give the SW low a few more runs and keep half an eye on the potent trough for Tues as that could deliver snow to a wide area.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
stophe
28 January 2015 16:42:19



HP forms well to the NE


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Could we see a flaccid murr sausage . ? 

Gooner
28 January 2015 16:42:32


 


ditto UKMO:


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012812/UW120-21.GIF?28-17


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Just for once you'd hope something would go right. Nearly two years without a flake here and it's not too much to ask.
Mind you, that rough on Tuesday looks quite potent and no issues with marginal warm sectors in that one. I'll give the SW low a few more runs and keep half an eye on the potent trough for Tues as that could deliver snow to a wide area.


 


 


 


Not sure we want to know about your private life Neil

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
28 January 2015 16:46:50

Hi-res. Quite a band of snow heading south

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1413.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1414.gif


 


Dewpoints probably just about OK apart from more SW areas


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1418.gif

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
28 January 2015 16:47:36


HP drags the dark blues back across us

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nsrobins
28 January 2015 16:48:19


 


Just for once you'd hope something would go right. Nearly two years without a flake here and it's not too much to ask.
Mind you, that rough on Tuesday looks quite potent and no issues with marginal warm sectors in that one. I'll give the SW low a few more runs and keep half an eye on the potent trough for Tues as that could deliver snow to a wide area.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


 


 


Not sure we want to know about your private life Neil



Indeed, sorry about that. I have to say though that in this particular case the warm sectors are all in the right places

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
28 January 2015 16:49:30
Look how much further south the Az High is on this run :)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 

Might even encourage that low in the Atlantic to slide underneath?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
28 January 2015 16:50:08


10 days out and we are still very cold, can't really complain

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


hobensotwo
28 January 2015 16:57:31


Hi-res. Quite a band of snow heading south

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1413.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1414.gif


 


Dewpoints probably just about OK apart from more SW areas


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1418.gif


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


No snow for me on there 8C surely that's not accurate in this type of flow?

Quantum
28 January 2015 16:58:45


 


What does it mean if your in the zone with a black box? 


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


My appologies, I should have explained. The chart uses SST data in order to determine the 'sst potential', so all inland areas are not defined, given that the lake effect is a costal phenomenon its best to look at the nearest upwind coastline.  

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
28 January 2015 16:59:37

As I suspected... trough disrupts, energy going underneath :)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif


 


It's all about the trough digging deeper at around 200-240 hours and pushing the Azores High south. That is the route to a blocked February. Get the energy going under the block and it props it up for round two.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif


 


Trend setter, please!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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