A quick check on wunderground would suggest 5s, 6s and 7s in the Exeter area at the moment.

 

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AccuWeather has it at +5c http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/exeter/ex2-4/weather-forecast/327655

. I think I might take down my thermometers or move them. My mobile data shows Exeter's temp of +6c too. I think I'll look at that from now on - seems more accurate and realistic I guess.

However, no getting away from the fact that it has been a milder start to the day - woke up to heavy rain at +4 to 5c

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Started to snow properly last night and settled instantly. When the next shower came the temp rose and it turned to sleet and rain. You have to go to 400-450m to see a patchy covering, in a straight northerly, in January. It was the same earlier in the week. Useless. Arctic freeze my ar....

Just like to share my disappointment and frustration with others.

Having noted that Monday's Icelandic LP which was due to clip SW England and Wales will stay at least 100-150 miles west and go straight to Northern Spain/ Pyrenees (Good for skiers in Andorra). Then Tuesday's low coming in from the north will fizzle out as it moves further south is disappointing not to mention a downgrade.

Now given that temperatures have been high this evening (+3c) under clear skies (when sleet/snow showers were forecasted). - All the showers missed Exeter, I know it's not the best place to be to get snow but what make's it so frustrating is to see that there are snow showers just to the west of Exeter over Dartmoor and they seem to be in a constant streamer with endless sleet/snow showers coming off the Bristol channel and into North Devon sliding though central Devon including Dartmoor and looking at the radar - to the east (Wiltshire/ OXFORDSHIRE etc have light snow) East Devon, South Somerset and West Dorset are missing out on all the showers. - Take a look at the latest radar:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

See what I mean by frustration!?

At least I will be sure to see some lying snow on the A361 TOMORROW just off Exmoor (Rackenford) and then look forward to some proper cold and crisp clear nights. 

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After the rain/sleet last night it is now cold enough for snow in Aberdeen and therefore dry. The Met Office forecast has now flipped to remove any mention moderate or heavy falls of snow and suggested largely dry with occasional sleet or snow showers in places.

Roll on spring? Is the forecast wrong and are 6 days of snow weather warnings actually going to deliver any measurable snow here?

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It not like before when you used to do very well on northerly with pictures of your home area get proper snow.  Why it not this case as it seem changed with northerly type if I am correct?  Here normally wall to wall sunshine in a northerly but this time not just mostly overcast, cold rain and damp.

Similarly, last night was the fourth successive night we had lying snow potential. For the fourth successive night there was not a flake. At least it stayed dry rather than just rained. 

Oh, and there's still no cold snap here. Current temp is 4.2c. As with each night of this spell, we've had colder starts in zonal conditions. 

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A pity that the professionals (MO) get drawn in too, and then withdraw.

The writing is on the wall for winter 14-15.

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Would you like to take up your argument with Darren P? When I propose that it doesn't go down very well

Hadley CET to 31st Jan +4.6C, that's almost +1.0C above the long term mean.
That, in essence, says it all.

 

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I've not posted anything about this current cold spell.

The one in question that wound you up ended up causing this nice little dent in the CET:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif

It also bought snow here and at work, where it settled for a time. It bought temperatures of -14C over the Highlands and -5C down here, which is far, far colder than anything we've seen from this current cold spell (so far). It was indeed the coldest week for 2 years. I certainly wasn't painting a snowy picture, nor was anyone else. I did mention when runs were showing snow, but nowhere did I say I expected it to happen.

This current cold spell is still waiting to really set in down here, with the arrival of the deep cold air aloft being put back by a day each day.

 

 

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I'd like to have a moan at myself for being so bothered about the weather and people's opinions of it.
It is without doubt a negative personality trait when the look of one set of ensembles can change your mood for the rest of the day. Is it compulsive? I am very well versed in compulsive behaviour and yes I do see the signs in this obsession with looking at charts and trends, especially (actually almost exclusively) at this time of year.
You know you might have a problem when someone responds to your comments with almost a dismissive waft of set of figures that suggest your argument is stupid and 'this' is really the situation. Lord, give me strength. I know what the situation is! But certain comments should not drive an emotive response - WTF! It's the weather, not global disease or financial ruin.
In summary, I'm moaning because I shouldn't be bothered and wont be again. Now, on to more important things . .

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You posted a set of ECM ensembles quoting a poster that said 'stronger agreement for a warm-up' with the tongue in cheek line 'Indeed, scorchio'

You know full well the poster was referring to upper temps as per the 00X GEFS which undeniably shows a strong trend of increasing 850s, and follows-on from the recent trends. As Michael says that is unlikely to translate to much milder ground conditions, but with no ppn and some clear days it wil at least feel pleasant, as it has done on several occasions during this recent 'cold' spell.

There is a difference between fact and perception, and please continue to illustrate it, but don't try and persuade me that this has been either a prolonged or memorable 'cold spell'

PS: See post above - can't be bothered LOL

 

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When does the colder air arrive again, I'm still waiting for my first frost this year. I'm sorry but this is a poor mans version of a cold spell around here with daytime temps above or around the average for the time of year and nighttime  ones staying well above freezing. The coming week should at least see clearer skies developing so frosts are on the cards but other than that, it's crap.

 

One thing I would add, several of us said this is how it would pan out in terms of temperature and snow distribution. It's a standard northerly, and most northerlies are exactly like this. It's why I can never understand why people in parts of the UK that traditionally do absolute crap from northerlies, in terms of snowfall, start getting excited when they see one emerging in the model output. They are mostly hopeless for many. Even the Doc is doing crap out of this one, and he would normally expect a fair distribution of any snow going out of a spell like this. 

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Well woke up to more rain (light) showers and temperatures of around 4.5c (This is an accurate reading). - As is in my car too. Very disappointed with this cold spell so far when just a few miles to the west there is a covering over DARTMOOR, but that was expected given the snow streamer for showers coming of Bristol channel then into Exmoor and Dartmoor all yesterday and last night, but then fizzling out and sweeping west of Exeter:

 

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Generally Northerlies bring with them cold uppers and low daytime and nighttime temps, but see as this isn't a proper Arctic  sourced Northerly we have modified temps and quite a bit of cloud cover. Roll on Spring as this winter is grating me now!

Notice how the sleet/snow streamer heading off the Bristol channel just turns more to rain and then fizzles out as it reaches eastern Devon:

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Home/ZoomRadar?lat=51.1875&lon=-1.6545454545454543&z=7&x=361&y=475&type=rain-snow-sleet 

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Maybe colder uppers and nights, but daytime maxes for many have been very par for the course. 5-7c is pretty much what you would expect across much of the south in a northerly. Any cold is usually well moderated by the time it reaches, say, anywhere south of the midlands. You know when the forecast goes "And although temperatures on the face of it aren't that cold...." Exactly what you're in for. 

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Well, Thursday was actually the most wintery day - hail and rain showers on and off during the afternoon (1min of soft hail) which ended with flakes of sleet/wet snow for like 30secs as showers cleared. I understood Friday would be milder which proved right, Saturday was meant to be colder and it was NOT and last night it was NOT cold either (I know why). But we got down to +3.3c. However the temperature was stuck at 4.1c for several hours under clear skies - but this was because of a breeze. I really thought this morning would wake up to some cold crisp weather but wrong. - It has been colder in more zonal conditions in fact.

Anyway, I sent a private message to Gavin P. Regarding why this northerly hasn't been particularly cold for the south: -He says I quote

"In terms of why is hasn't been severely cold, I think it's just the lack of real high latitude blocking that's meant we haven't been able to tap into very extreme cold air"

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Thanks Gavin - Can't reply as your inbox is full.

 

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At last we have -8c uppers for the first time this winter. Anything that falls should be proper snow. Of course, it is now bone dry after days of rain/sleet wet snow when it wasn't cold enough. Just typical.

Still -4C uppers over East Anglia and it's currently pouring with rain IMBY

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Brief chances later this week now also seem to have been snatched away, with 2mTs raised to 4 or 5C Weds/Thurs.

Can I risk a hint of a moan without being gunned down? I think so LOL

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Thought I see more of the North West crew in here tonight, given the multitude of reports from daarn saarf of snow falling.

 

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I noted that having saw the country file weather for the week ahead last night. Well your best chances for snow would be tonight and early hours then I guess.

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