And bone dry

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and windy NW flow will continue across the UK over the next 24-48hrs veering slowly more Northerly tomorrow with showery troughs of Low pressure moving SE across the UK at times.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near northern coasts. Becoming dry and possibly less cold later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe currently remaining for another week or so before signs of the trough lifting out to a UK based Jet flow West to East flow is shown later in the period.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows cold weather likely to continue across the UK for the reliable future. With winds mostly from the North coastal areas will experience wintry showers and as various disturbances  run SE close to or over the UK more organized bands of precipitation could give more widespread and significant snowfall especially in the West and SW early next week. Later in the period High pressure ridges across the UK slowly cutting off the cold feed with frost and sunny days replacing any snow showers. By the far end of the run milder SW winds look like pushing the ridge slowly away to the South.

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run differs in as much as it develops a UK based High pressure area across Britain by the second week lasting some considerable time with dry and sunny days but very cold and frosty nights for all.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 70% chance of the UK under the influence of High pressure lying close by either over or to the South of the UK. The majority holds the High closest to Southern Britain with a greater chance of milder Atlantic SW'lies affecting the North by Day 15.

UKMO UKMO this morning looks cold throughout with small disturbances running South to the West of the UK early next week with the risk of more prolonged rain or snowfall for a time while the snow shower theme continues elsewhere. By the end of the run High pressure inching in just to the West of the UK looks like sustaining cold weather with some severe night time frosts where snow is lying but eliminating the risk of further snow showers.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate the complexity of the situation in the Northerly winds with further disturbances in the flow running South and SE over or close to the UK enhancing the risk of more widespread rain or snow at times in the otherwise cold and showery feed.

GEM GEM today shows another week of this cold and wintry pattern of weather with further wintry showers in places especially near exposed West, north and East coasts and also with the risk of more widespread wintry precipitation at times as disturbances run South in the flow. Then a ridge topples SE across the UK late next week with milder SW winds then extending to all areas by the end of the period.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the cold going over the UK through next week veering winds towards the NE as a ridge of High pressure lies NE to SW across Scotland by next weekend maintaining cold and frosty weather in the North and keeping a breeze from the NE over the South with wintry showers near Eastern coasts.

ECM ECM this morning also shows another week of cold weather across the UK before a moderation in conditions under Atlantic WNW'lies develop by the end of the weekend. Last to see this change will be the SE where cold weather and a NE flow for a time may maintain a risk of wintry showers before the High pressure takes over and backs winds off to the WNW.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning maintains a trough across Europe with an Atlantic anticyclone to the SW North of the Azores. This pattern is no doubt made up of varying scenarios mostly revolving around the likelihood of winds maintained from a North or NW source over the UK for some considerable time yet.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is firming up somewhat in a moderation in the cold conditions across the UK later next week as High pressure moves over bringing a different type of weather with sunny days and frosty night more likely than sleet and snow. The trend for the High to slip away South much later has gained some momentum this morning from ensemble output.

MY THOUGHTS The UK lies under two regimes at the moment. Some especially in the North and Central regions lie under a blanket of snow while many others have none and in these areas the cold spell will be most likely viewed currently as a non event. However, irrespective of snowfall or not the cold NW wind is and will continue to be felt by all with significant windchill for all and it's this that remains the most impactive feature of this spell. Of course those enthusiasts on here will be looking for snow and the risk continues for there to be further snowfall at times, probably in similar areas to those that have experienced it already. However, early next week offers a chance for the SW and West to see a risk of snowfall although this morning's output seem to hold things a little too far West for that to be guaranteed. Then as we move deeper into next week there is strong support for the Northerly flow to loosen it's grip in the wake of an Atlantic High pressure which although maintaining the cold would eliminate snow showers and give rise to sharp night frosts especially over snowfields of the North. Then further out still there is gathering momentum that this High will then slip South and bring in less cold Atlantic air around a relocated High to the SW of the UK in Week 2. It is still far too early to call that evolution as likely to be correct and it maybe that further prolonging of the cold spell crops up in the coming days. The one disappointment for cold lovers though is the lack of desire to rise pressure significantly to the North and NE later in the period which unless happens will be more likely to end up guaranteeing the end of the cold spell from next weekend as the Atlantic Westerlies regain a foothold.

Issued at 08:00 Friday January 30th 2015

Tend to agree with this. As I said earlier in the season  for most of us numerous 'snow opportunities' are likely to evaporate and it will probably boil down to one or possibly two events if we get lucky. The last 24 hours is a case in point with a slushy mix for many of us. It's a different picture in the north of course as is generally the case unless we have a notably mild winter.

A feature was progged to move SSE across the UK last night. It appeared on the visisat images early yesterday and did what the Meto expected, save for the difficulties of what may fall from the sky.

So Marcus is correct

Relying on Northerlies to deliver down here is a fools game anyway. Easterlies are a far better bet but not on the menu as far as I can see

fergie on NW

Yes. However, despite currently strong EC and MOGREPS signals for cold to relent by end of next week, this still has to be accepted with due caution, with further trough disruption(s) to E still possible to complicate matters and prolong cold weather. That said, it must be noted that - above caveat aside - 00z EC plumes do point with greater consensus towards a clear departure from cold conditions past Friday. Rising GPH remains strongly indicated as high pressure moves in from W; but prior to that, a messy and probably snowy transition (for some). Cold nights still very likely once ridge established, despite moderation in daytime chill.

Signs thereafter, including in UKMO long range model output, broadly suggest that into mid-Feb we will see a phase when a stronger jet will become displaced to a more northerly position, with stronger zonality (and lower GPH) to N of UK and better chance of stronger ridging and thus more benign weather to the south.

Underpinning it all through medium range remains weak teleconnective drivers: MJO not expected to be influential; no signs of any SSW in near future; weak or very indecisive El Nino.      

A cold north-easterly (sub -8 uppers) brings convective snow 4-6 Feb to far southeast on 6z GFS.  A trend worth watching for the Kent contingent.

Translation - one week of cold, then thats your lot

Quite possibly. But still sooooo much better than last 'winter'!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

Still a split in the EC ens, but op and control go with the mild camp

I have to say ................I feel my best chance of anything wintry is during this spell , after that nowt

For this spell!

TBH, cold spells lasting a few/several days are far more commonplace than ones lasting a fortnight or more. We were spoilt with a handful of longer cold spells in recent years, but even then, the cold spells in Feb(?) 12 and Jan 13 (x2) were relatively brief affairs.

Saturday night and Sunday look very snowy to me. This could easily become a big event with a bit of luck.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=48&carte=2000

Hi this is no dig at Ian F because they can only speak by what they see, much like Gibby & co on here......

However I would side with caution for the simple fact that it was only last week we was hearing things could be boring till Mid Feb, then look what we have had the last 48hrs and the next week to come. Also it's a short Month Feb so once we get the next week out the way we are edging to mid month anyway so it's no big deal if we see something more milder for a time as it was always going to happen at some point.

Needs a lot of luck - subject to now casting. Would hate to be a weather presenter at such a time, since it is so easy to be caught out one way or the other.

That low pressure dropping down between Greenland and Ireland is the ultimate p**s take.

It couldn't align itself any better on the 6z to miss the UK mainland completely by a whisker.

It's almost like GFS is sticking its middle finger up to us to say, (to coin a Bullseye Jim Bowen phrase) "'av a look at what you could 'av won"!

Roll on spring!

Given how persistent the Azores High has been this Winter, I think it's pretty remarkable that we've had a couple of decent cold/snowy spells so far. Those that have missed out on the snow may think differently of course.

One thing is clear though, there appears no appetite from the models to build sustained heights to our North or North East. If the GFS 6z Op verifies it looks like the a repeat of the pattern we've seen so far this Winter, with any cold coming from the North West, interspersed with milder interludes.    

In two words "messily marginal".... and/or "jam Tamara"

The 06z op was a dream run for me though.... lots of Lows with W and NW winds across my part  Love the jet being further N

That said, I don't take a blind bit of notice beyond T+96 with GFS nowadays. An upgrade? More like a downgrade IMHO. ECM is soooo much more consistent, with GFS always playing catch up. Americans... always bigger and better? Not on the model front

Yes indeed we got 6cm of snow last night completely unforecast. People saying it's going to be dry should take a look at this weekends fax charts they have snow written all over them.

Agree with this. It's been a very interesting winter so far this year. I for one have enjoyed the up's and down's, the will it snow or rain, 24 hour notice polar lows  

It's way better than last year and were still only just heading into Feb.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

Quite a few runs still keen on a cold flow @ 168