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haghir22
31 January 2015 10:19:40


 


Perhaps,but there is far more interest in the now and the very soon.  Tally's maps above show snow for millions in the SE for example.


Edit:


Tomorrow morning will bring a fair bit of snow to parts of the south east


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Norfolk? Looks like too far East to affect here and London.

YNWA
Whether Idle
31 January 2015 10:28:26


 


Norfolk? Looks like too far East to affect here and London.


Originally Posted by: haghir22 


Depends where you look.  There is life beyond the GFS


Try to find the "rainfall" predictions for 0300 - 0900 Sunday


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcpvj0v07#?zoom=8&map=Rainfall&lon=-0.19&lat=51.51&fcTime=1422727200

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Stormchaser
31 January 2015 10:37:27

The weak band of precipitation getting all the way south this morning, and the potential for another tonight into tomorrow, have only materialised at short notice. Hopefully that will translate into Tuesday's precipitation being upgraded in extent, intensity and persistence, so that it too can make it all the way to the South Coast.


Failing that, localised areas of higher instability look possible over the SE in particular. Coupled with tomorrow's potential, it seems that area might do relatively well for snowfall.


There I go glancing at the details when I'm meant to be taking a break... old habits die hard 

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
The Beast from the East
31 January 2015 10:46:58

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2015013106/navgem-0-144.png?31-11


NAVGEM still good


GFS has a cold surface high. Better than mild westerlies I suppose


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
snow_dann
31 January 2015 10:49:27

These little troughs/disturbances popping up at short notice are awesome. I love the fact its down to nowcast situations, makes for a far more interesting and exciting outlook. When it snows at my location of course.


 



The weak band of precipitation getting all the way south this morning, and the potential for another tonight into tomorrow, have only materialised at short notice. Hopefully that will translate into Tuesday's precipitation being upgraded in extent, intensity and persistence, so that it too can make it all the way to the South Coast.


Failing that, localised areas of higher instability look possible over the SE in particular. Coupled with tomorrow's potential, it seems that area might do relatively well for snowfall.


There I go glancing at the details when I'm meant to be taking a break... old habits die hard 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

briggsy6
31 January 2015 10:51:41

The trouble is with temps hovering around zero at night and up to +5 or +6c by day it's only cold enough for transient wet snow at best. Basically a waste of time for southern UK unless you've got some altitude.

Location: Uxbridge
Whether Idle
31 January 2015 10:52:12

NAVGEM upgrades the cold out to day 6 on its 6z run @ 144 with a more potent NE ly and the high nudged NW.  A trend worth looking for on the 12zs


the 0z run had a reload from the N by 180 hours.... 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Quantum
31 January 2015 11:14:37

Upgrade this morning, Looks like the balance is shifting in favour of the HP. Another couple of upgrades and we will get dream charts.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
squish
31 January 2015 11:23:51


Upgrade this morning, Looks like the balance is shifting in favour of the HP. Another couple of upgrades and we will get dream charts.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Quite possible. Some of the lesser models are hinting at a potent easterly, but until ECM shows any interest I would be very cautious, and the ECM ensembles seem to have backed away this morning.


 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
sriram
31 January 2015 11:25:13


Upgrade this morning, Looks like the balance is shifting in favour of the HP. Another couple of upgrades and we will get dream charts.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


dream in the sense that the high will drift ne and lock in with the scandy high - as long as mainland Europe in cold we could get a severe cold spell - better than the current half hearted trash

Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
squish
31 January 2015 11:31:00
The 06z GEFS shows the op scenario very well supported up to +144 (as far as it is out so far)
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Quantum
31 January 2015 11:35:58

Definately something interesting on the GEFS ensembles, HP migrating north not south on most.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whether Idle
31 January 2015 11:36:43


Upgrade this morning, Looks like the balance is shifting in favour of the HP. Another couple of upgrades and we will get dream charts.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Agreed Quantum Overlord!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
shiver
31 January 2015 11:44:42
I fully expect ecm to follow gfs BTW 06 ens are great 🙂
Whether Idle
31 January 2015 11:46:30

The Indian model shows a repeat order of the 120h  scenario 5 days later:



edit - look north, then north east, then north, then north east

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
White Meadows
31 January 2015 11:49:29
Hopecasting indeed. The big players are no where near interested in a scandy high.
Quantum
31 January 2015 11:51:28

Hopecasting indeed. The big players are no where near interested in a scandy high.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I beg to differ, the GEFS and EPS have always maintained strong support for this situ, and this is unsuprising because it is the natural one - and it is the polar vortex being so strong that prevents it. I recon a slight downgrade in its strength would result in more members going for it.


The EPS has to be fair backed of slightly today, but on the whole the OP has been on the mild side of the cluster.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whether Idle
31 January 2015 11:59:03

Hopecasting indeed. The big players are no where near interested in a scandy high.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Hope is important.  Here is the Chinese perspective: Enjoy!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Quantum
31 January 2015 12:01:45

Actually think there is a lot of promise for the NE in these charts, the point between the axis of the ridge of the HP and the easterly winds often forms a convergence zone, and it looks like the NE is at risk of convergenze zones for several days towards the end of the week, perhaps even besting the SE if we do get them.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
31 January 2015 12:04:19

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
White Meadows
31 January 2015 12:06:32


 


dream in the sense that the high will drift ne and lock in with the scandy high - as long as mainland Europe in cold we could get a severe cold spell - better than the current half hearted trash


Originally Posted by: sriram 

unfortunately 'dream' remains the key word for any HP setting up to our North east. The jet profile is not looking favourable past day 6, and the NAO jumps positive later.

Rob K
31 January 2015 12:54:41
Remember the NAO is a meaningless figure. It is derived from the charts, not any sort of driver. If the charts are wrong then the forecast NAO is just as wrong.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Whether Idle
31 January 2015 13:25:56

Bird table model (BTM) is back in action, having been first used in December 2005.  A jay and yellow wagtail have visited the birdtable this afternoon.  Rare visitors indeed. I think they must have had a look at the 5 consecutive days of snowfall alerts on the Met O website.


The forecast from BTM 12z here is Brrrrr.  Tweet.


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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