just watched gavin p 5 days forecast looks cold but dry next week under that HP coming in from the west don't look like the eastlies are on the cards now according to gavin,

That is what some just don't understand or didn't know

Nice one Quantum the line is right over my house, if you are right I will buy you a beer.

However, I am struggling to think of a synoptic situation in the past similar to that you described, one producing snow anyway, surely being along the Ridge axis would depress convection?

Funny you should say that.  My over winter blue tit visitor has been noticeable by his absence over the winter, but he has been back regularly to my back garden, over the past week.  Rather subjective I know, but when the north wind doth blow ..........

TBF, I feel that NAO signals aren't all they're cracked up to be.  I may be over simplifing this, but I believe the NAO forecast is one stating the predicted pressure differential between North Atlantic and the Pole. Granted, high pressure in the Atlantic usually signals milder weather for the UK, but in our current set-up, Atlantic HP seems like it's helping our cold spell's longevity.

I may, however, be cursing said HP if it kills the cold feed off in a week's time, and then have a sulk that we didn't get a day or 2 of travel chaos down sarf

Its not on the axis of the ridge, its inbetween the axis and the constant easterlies. At that point you have northerly winds moving into easterly winds hence a convergence or at least thats what I've noted in the past. Northumberland tends to be most affected, especially the Newcastle area. However the downside is that they are often extremely localized and rarely last for long (less than a day), nevertheless they can give very impressive snowfall totals.

GME is very good yes, another impressive if failed attempt at greenland retrogression, though I note that the GME is on the point of moving the high into the atlantic and producing another northerly.

Excellent trends within the semi reliable time frame with the high being nudged further NW on the 12z GFS

As a result of the brisk NE winds snow penetrates widely across S and E of England, if quite light for the most part, but cold.

UKMO is okay, and an upgrade of sorts on the 0z: here at 96hrs on the 12z

im liking your enthusiasm at the moment, but I fear you're ploughing a lone furrow!

if anything the 850s are moderated on this run thus lessening snow streamer events in the SE next week. Just one run though.

All good to me Neil

Im well up for a ploughing match though

I disagree with your analysis there.  Its looking like a great week ahead of cold NW then N then NE then ENE winds.

There's convective snow potential and then embedded troughs and the 850s are sub -8 for some of the time  so I will continue to enjoy the fun as the models churn out more charts and I continue to convalesce from man-flu.

Im not expecting a severe spell, just enjoying wintry potential

All looks cold enough to me ????

Hints at retrogression. The high is further north but cant go anywhere. UKMO still not good

Frosty nights cold /chilly dry days , fog not too far away either

We keep seeing the high try to build north, but it keeps meeting a brick wall in the form of low heights towards the Arctic. If the PV weakened a bit more we'd be looking at a decent easterly (further to the easterly next week that is).

Think that you are roughly correct there but not quite. Pretty certain that the NAO is the pressure difference between Iceland (i.e. the North Atlantic), and the Azores area (i.e. the area of atlantic closer to the equator). 

As others have stated the NAO is not a weather system or driver per se, it's simply a numerical representation of pressure difference. So if a forecast of high/low pressure over Iceland, high/low pressure over the Azores is wrong, then the NAO forecast is wrong too.

So it seems that I am presented with the best chance of a snow streamer as we go into the second half of next week - and then high pressure taking a hold over or close by to the UK thereafter thus keeping the Atlantic Storm Machine well at arm's length.

Yep, I'm happy with all that.

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Cohen's update

Interesting Control so far

Trying to build north

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015013112/gensnh-0-1-156.png

We had no snow in low level Central London EastNE side, temps being at 3-5 deg. Celsius were the reason, and even if they were at plus one and 2 deg. Celsius for my area then areas 1 degree colder (around my part of London it would have settled) - this last week and today, from last Wednesday those in Birmingham and Manchester had the snow, especially Thursday to including today there it snowed but SE half of England was mostly at 3-6 deg. Temperature.

Synoptically optically the pattern in this Winter often had cold NW winds with frosts as well, And North Atlantic Low Systems as well as South NW Central E and NE US had plenty of Cold and often Snowy spells with spells of snow as well as some rainy weather as well, Milder and dry weather in their SW and South.  Central and NE USA very cold at times through this winter.

Next Week UK and Western and NW Europe again NW to Northerly winds bringing more sleety and on hills snow showers weather as well, and the UKMO less than GFS has what is a more likely cold GFS ENE Scandinavian N Central Europe flow of cold winds with more chances of pretty cold NE flow for SE Britain so this means there is still time for it to snow in London.

Next weeks weekend Central Mid East N Atlantic and West Northwest Europe Large North Atlantic Anticyclone, with the NE USA Sunday Night to Tuesday could see very cold weather with further chances of moderate and heavy snow that may give again a SuperSnow Nor'easter with Full Low crossing NE USA, this weather and Low Pressure currently in Central SW USA is now heading on towards NE USA so NY State New York City and New Jersey all of New New York and other NE USA States on Monday to Tuesday and Sunday night be aware of upto 2-3 foot of snow, this is part of a Low Pressure System number of them to cross over to Newfoundland Greenland South Central Arctic and Iceland to NE Europe and Norwegian Sea areas where they will take their track, over the next Weekend Eastern Central N Atlantic West NW Europe and UK large cold frosty High Pressure, that converts from less cold to get some Frosty cold East NE influx into it from a very Cold N and NE Europe. 

Trough dropping into Scandi. Some very cold air in there as well

Hopefully the start of a new trend

Now there's a surprise

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015013112/gensnh-0-0-192.png

If we get  retrogression it really could be special with such cold air close by

It wouldn't take much to get us in the freezer