The toning down of the westerly momentum continues for the 6-10 day period... GFS has responded by shifting the HP cell NW to bring about a strong UK high which would probably hang out across the UK for longer than the run shows, as nearly all models have tended to move such features east too quickly when they have come along in times past.

The polar vortex is still in pieces days 7-8, so it wouldn't take much more amplification to get that high nosing into Greenland as a taller, slimmer feature - which would raise the chances of the diving trough days 9-10 (which has turned up in the output much as anticipated) to land closer to our shores.

As it is, UKMO is already backing the Atlantic trough a good deal further west than GFS by day 6, which is a striking new development in itself, though on this particular run the pattern in the western North Atlantic doesn't look amplified enough to prevent the high toppling very soon after - though a Euro trough in the way would help to draw that out at least a little.

The shift away from the idea of a rapid and sustained flattening of the pattern is proving almost as fast as the shift toward it.

Unless, that is, ECM doesn't follow suit 

Here's a not so fun fact... GFS brings me bone dry conditions to large parts of the south right out to 12th February 

As much as I enjoy heavy frost and persistent ice, I can't say I'd be too happy with a grand total 10 minutes of transient wet snow for the entire cold spell. Not looking too hopeful with even the high-res NMM showing nothing falling from the skies out to noon Wednesday. Previous hints at some disturbances in the flow seem to have vanished.

A decent effort at 120 from ECM with cold air flooding in over England from Scandi

But it's a fleeting visit - as the High re-establishes to the West

NAVGEM with a rotating toppler that threatens the SE  with -9 uppers by 180hrs as it ends:worth running through the evolution

and this deep FI ECM has -9s close to the east coast at 192. Its colder to our east than it first appears! Things will adjust at t0

ECM still very flat. Hopefully playing catch up with GFS rather than setting the agenda

What does history teach us?   

JMA still wants to bring in a raw east wind to the south

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2015013112/J192-21.GIF?31-12

That the mildest model always wins!

That's how I see it too - it's those occasions where the opposite occurs that keep us coming back for more.

Nothing should be ruled out- that's what my past experience of following the model output has taught me.

A very cold FI chart that, surface temps would be close to freezing during the day

GEFS Ens at 12h very encouraging for persistent HP and cold out to mid feb.

Here are the splits

144h: UK HP 6,Mid Atl HP 6 ,Scan HP 5,Grn HP 3.

192h: Mid Atl HP 10,Uk HP 5,Icel HP 2,Scan HP 1,Azor HP 1, Grn HP 1

240h:Scan HP 6,Uk HP 5,Mid Atl HP 4,Azor HP 4,Grn HP 1.

360h Scan HP 6,Atl LP 6,Grn HP 3,mid Atl HP 2,UK HP 2,Azor Hp 1.

ECM may not be drawn to UKMO's idea of going through the motions very rapidly, but the day 10 chart is nicely set up for shifting the HP a long way west with a trough dropping down from the north... another variant on that theme. 

The vortex does look like being a right mess again by days 9-10, which will allow mid-latitude blocking to stick around and attempt to reach to the Arctic. The very strong Russian High on the ECM 12z would really give it a hard time. There is also an exceptionally strong frictional torque event taking place at the moment that should lead to a very strong mountain torque event across Asia which can seriously mess with the polar vortex. The models may struggle to capture this process effectively... only time will tell.

Take out GFS' progressive bias and there's room for the location of the diving jet and troughs to return west again following some 4-5 days days of being situated further east (i.e. through  central to eastern Scandinavia). It would be a good way to repeat what we've just been through but with much more in the way of cold continental air to draw into the LP from the other side of the North Sea during the initial 'trough attack'.

Come to think of it, wasn't GFS showing Euro Highs for the period we're in now, prior to that moment when it suddenly caught onto the idea of a trough into Europe? I swear I can recall run after run placing highs over the south of the UK or not far on the other side of the Channel.

Imagine if it turned out that a trough will drop into Europe could be reliably read from GFS showing persistent Euro Highs 

As for those torque events, no need to worry about what they are exactly - it's the impacts on the atmospheric circulation that are important 

Euro 4 doesn't seem to be having any of the snow forecast for the eastern side tonight/tomorrow morning, with mostly rain shown esp for the SE and EA, and virtually nothing shown settling anywhere.http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=21&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Yep - it has some snow, but mainly rain 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Snow IMBY, though. 

The mean only takes us back to where we are as of now, so no massive warm up in sight

GFS sticking to the big fat UK high scenario next week. Light winds, clear skies - forget the uppers, the nights could be significantly cold under that.