http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020112/ECH1-168.GIF?01-0

And with that low out to the South West likely to undercut,  the flood gates could open a few days down the road. True Fantasy Island stuff. 

uninspiring ECM... Chilly and dry. Actually, I can't think of a more boring set up... Ranks alongside a Bartlett...  I suppose we should get some sun which will make it pleasant as the days begin to lengthen.

Whilst browsing through the Chinese and Indian models on Meteociel I clicked on the NOGAPS link , forgetting that it is now the NAVGEM. I thought it looked a very tasty run until I noticed the date! Those were seriously good charts (and cold weather) back in March 2013. Nothing like that on the cards yet here but better to have a week (or two)of cold and dry then a week of mild and wet.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogaps/runs/2013031300/nogapsnh-0-150.png?13-06

fergie said one thing we've been watching for since EC-EPS output yesterday is potential for another colder N'ly later next week, depending on high orientation. One to watch.      bit of hope here,

I wouldn't worry about that , that isn't how the Beeb see it

N Miller showed something similar just now

you mean something quite different than GFS is showing?

18z is doing its best to scupper streamer risk Thurs into Fri. An outlier?

It virtually went to a Northerly after next week, then showed the yellow shadings trying to get in but beaten back by the blues

It wouldn't take much of a northward correction to put the south into the freezer. Good night. 

Just going back to a week ago and he discussions over why many people ignore the GFS Precip charts and the countless snowy runs that all models churn out when a cold snap is on the way. One of the response. Not picking on Ally Pally, it's just one of many:

Dean  then responded with a comment about a thousand times bitten, twice shy. Too right, and so has been the case yet again. 

One day we will get another 2010 scenario and we'll all be happy. Having said that I'm sure there were people that missed out even then. 

Look at it this way, a real shot of cold air is rather unlikely, but zonality/mild away from the far NW is extremely unlikely. We are going into a very cold dry spell, with the potential for upgrades in the form of HP retrogressions, and the hints of this keep trickling through on the ENS. But what is almost entirely absent is zonality or anything mild until well into FI, and even at 384hr there is little support for it. Compare this to this time last month where at 384 every single ensemble member was raging zonality! 

Loving the ECM this morning ;-)

It's got to the stage that one only has to take a look at the GFS ENS set:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Moderated brief easterly flow now later this week, then almost complete agreement of raised uppers into FI. Borefest for snow chances, winter of sorts will drag on under high pressure

A very interesting ECM this morning with retrogression of the high NW and cold air makes it in in a weeks time, briefly.

The ECM has sub -10 uppers over S and E at t96 :

and there is the possibility of some convective snowfall for coastal areas in S and E for about 36 hours from midnight Thursday.

All in all very decent times and I will be glued to the output

There is a possibility for some convection, that is all.  I think in 48 hours time it will either be (A) dead as DoDo as the high squeezes out the flow and the deeper cold or (B)  we will have a 36 hour window for snow showers to happen.  The other (perhaps most likely scenario) (C) is that the convection occurs before the sub -8 uppers arrive and its another marginal wintry mix followed by very cold sunshine)

Probabilities of these occurring A- 30% B - 30% C - 40%

 Its still very much up in the air, lol.

It is chasing the twists and turns of the output that makes it so fascinating.  I recognise that we may well end up with nothing but while there is a chance, Im onto it!

I can't work out if you're doing this on purpose in a attempt to influence the outcome
Nothing is to be assumed as we both know, but surely you can see that on the evidence of the last few days trends and current output, the picture has moderated considerably. Are you quoting ECM for -10 uppers because there are hardly any examples on GFS now?
I too will be watching the output, but maybe not for the same reasons you are

Hi Neil

You will see Ive added my perception of the probabilities above, the GFS op was an outlier IMBY in the key window of opportunity so Im ignoring it.

If only model watchers could influence the outcome, we would have a lot of conflicting weather going on

Long term the output isn't great in FI...BUT...definitely something interesting to watch on ECM as mentioned with the High pressure looking for a time to move out further west than was shown last night on ECM's run.  In fact we had the HP collapsing southwards in deep FI at the end of the run. So slight improvements,if we can get that HP just a little more west and North could be fun and games as some very cold air being pulled down into Scandy.

Not sure this is game over just yet, as per Gavin P's (always excellent ) Sunday video,  CFS is having none of it so perhaps some sort of halfway house between GFS and ECM may occur. As always more runs needed.

I think there has been a slight upgrade overnight for the SE in terms of the easterly flow. UKMO remains the best. ECM interesting longer term as well with our limpet high perhaps retrogressing into the north atlantic and pv in a state. Considering how dire the 18z was last night its a better morning.

NAVGEM also has another brief return of the polar air from the diving scandi trough. One to watch and this lesser model has been consistent about it

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2015020200/navgem-1-168.png?02-05

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will slowly give way to a cold NE flow of winds across the UK tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near Eastern coasts. before becoming largely dry and possibly less cold in the North later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe lifting as the Jet flow over the Atlantic then rounds the Northern periphery of a UK based High pressure from later this week.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows the cold weather continuing with High pressure gradually taking control of the UK weather in the coming week. The current Northerly flow is shown to veer NE with snow showers affecting Eastern and Central areas of England for a time through the week before High pressure ridging in over Scotland and Northern Ireland gradually cuts the cold flow off but leave calm, dry and bright and cold weather with frosts at night the largest factor of the UK weather from then on throughout week 2.

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run shows little significant differences in weather at the surface to the GFS operational with just small but subtle differences in the positioning of the High near or over the UK making local variances in the amounts of cloud and temperature levels the only major comparison day to day in the sustained High pressure pattern throughout.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 45% likelihood of High pressure across Southern Britain in 14 days time while 50% go for a Low pressure based pattern with the UK under Westerly winds. The remaining 5% shows a cold Northerly flow between High pressure to the West and Low to the East.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strong build of pressure from the Atlantic lying to the West of Ireland by next weekend extending a ridge across the UK. The weather would stay cold and bright with sunny spells by day and frost at night. Winds will remain NE but light over Southern England while a slightly stronger NW flow over the NW brings less cold and more cloudy air over these areas at times next weekend.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts differ little from the UKMO raw output data this morning.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure gradually taking control of the weather as we move through the latter part of this week as an intense High centre positions itself close to the West of Ireland late this week and then just meanders around close to the UK for the remainder of the run. The weather would become benign and rather boring in type with successive days of bright and dry weather with some sunshine but with variable and sometimes large amounts of cloud especially over the North. Temperatures would ease up with time but frosts at night would remain commonplace where skies clear.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains the High pressure theme of the rest with the positioning crucial in whether the weather be cold or not. The South is shown to stay cold with something of an east or NE breeze whereas the North may see less cold air filter across from the NW at times later in more cloud cover.

ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure becoming the dominant feature of the UK weather over the period once we lose the Cold and unstable North and NE airflow over the UK until later in the week. The High then slowly sinks from a position over or to the West of the UK to a point to the SW with milder and stronger Westerly winds gradually taking hold for many by Day 10 though any rain looks largely restricted to the North.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the trough currently over Europe relaxing away East as pressure rises to the South of the UK (including to the S) indicating a slow return to Atlantic Westerly winds and milder air by the middle of next week.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has maintained universal support from the models for High pressure to be situated near the UK from later this week on with modified cold conditions persisting in fine and benign conditions.

MY THOUGHTS Well if you like large mid latitude Winter High pressure areas near the UK then this morning's outputs should float your boat as almost without exception all models show a period of a week at least where such a High will dominate the weather over the UK. We first have to lose the cold North then NE flow of this working week with snow showers numerous in the East for a time but lose them we will over next weekend. The High through the period will be ridging in towards Scotland and will intensify too bringing sustained dry and bright weather with overnight frosts and bright days. The positioning of the High will be crucial in how things are at the surface but with most models looking like keeping it just to the West of the UK a slack NE flow could be maintained over the South while a slack NW flow in the North will most likely encourage a gradual infill of cloud from the Atlantic though much in the way of rain seems unlikely. Temperatures look like being on the cold side of average especially in the South though daytime maxima are likely to ease upwards with time while night minima will be reflected upon whether there is cloud cover or not though it seems inevitable that frost at night will feature prominently especially in the Central and Southern regions of Britain. Then the longer term ensemble members of GFS and ECM in general indicate a sinking High gradually bringing more and more of the UK in milder and perhaps more changeable Westerly winds with rain at times by the end of next week and the second weekend though the speed and extent of this is speculative given the time range. So in summary if it's snow your after I'm afraid it is looking increasingly unlikely that anymore large scale snowfalls look like happening under this current cold spell with the window of any opportunity closing further as the week progresses and the fine, bright and rather cold conditions of a large slow moving High pressure area takes hold.

Issued at 08:00 Monday February 2nd 2015

thanks gibby, oh well that's it then HP dominates, eventually, probably bringing with it unsettled wet conditions

yes Beast, that NAVGEM brings in a snow streamer for Kent on Feb 9th.  All just one of a myriad of possible outcomes as they stand today on Candlemas.  As the lore has it "If Candlemas be fair and clear there will be two winters in one year, if it be cloud and rain then winter's gone and will not come again".

This time last year I was purchasing sand bags for defending my property against impending floods and dealing with scaffolders re storm damage.  This year Im looking at the chances of some snow and enjoying a frosty morning.  I know which I prefer.