Agree.The model output currently seems to be pretty close to delivering   the METO extended forecast.Not saying it could n't change but no sign of any real northern blocking at present.

I think it is all about where the block sits.  The further N and W then there's more cold weather for most, especially the further S and E.

Here's the CMA for Feb 11th:

Heres the NAVGEM for Feb 9th:

Both offer cold weather for many.  All part of the many possibilities depending upon where the high locates.

I havent seen the Snow row look this barren since about November:

And so ends a cold spell that really hasnt delivered for us at all.  Apart from the odd heavy hail shower -and the two snow showers we had.  Quite sad for us really as we have had some really cold days when it was dry.

Fingers crossed the HP doesnt sit too close to the UK, and takes up situ over the north of the UK towards Iceland.

 edit: US = Merseyside/parts of North West England.

6z GFS has a plunge of cold air into the SE Thursday with widespread snow flurries across England and perhaps something heavier grazing the SE coast:

slight correction north boosts the snow risk in the SE, hope for another correction on the next run. Of course, could go the other way as well

Hi, I wouldn't be overly confident of any great volume of showers...any possible accumulations look pretty small to me... but at least this run is probably representative of the GEFS suite, unlike the outlier 0z, and it shows that Thursday is the day where some convective snow showers are most likely across  England especially the far SE.

ok, current cold spell over by Saturday but now we want our high to be sucked west

Latest GFS run having none of ECM's westward movement, it's back to the sinker as we had on the early run on Sunday:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

And according to the 00Z GEFS there was a 95% probability it would sink. Those citing CMA this morning are clutching one of only a few straws left in the basket I'm afraid.

Yes the MLB could shift into HLB but we're going to need a lot of luck to get it high enough North for the cold plunge to our east to influence us in any way next week.

All the best for Thursday for those in the SE, but as it stands it's a blink and you'll miss it affair.

The models continue to disagree on how amplified the pattern will be days 5-6, with ECM at the upper end and GFS the lower.

A classic standoff, and the first regarding a strong, cut-off HP cell west of the UK in a long time. The ECM version in particular takes me back to the often dry years of 2010 and 2011, when such features were frequent and talk of drought was never too far away. That has seemed like a whole other world these past few years!

Anyway, the main interest in terms of surface weather today looks to be across Devon and Cornwall this evening in the form of a few heavy snow showers, with the chance of a dusting as far east as Bournemouth based on the most recent high-res model runs, of which roughly half snow a small feature heading south having developed in the vicinity of Bristol. Too specific and small-scale to take literally I'm afraid!

Tomorrow could bring a disturbance or two in the flow from the NE that track across SE England but just how far SE is total guesswork, with no two models agreeing. There's the potential for a cm or two for a lucky few.

Thursday now has the greatest potential to bring more widespread snow - though again, focused across England - thanks to the Euro trough looking a bit stronger on the latest runs.

This introduces a bit more moisture and instability into the cold easterly, which combined with uppers of -10*C running over SSTs of 6-10*C gives some scope for a convective feature to develop. I imagine Quantum will have more details on that as we draw closer to the day.

Briefly on the longer range, there seems to be issues (from an interesting weather perspective) with the atmosphere falling into a low momentum state at time when there is extensive high pressure across the UK, which could leave us high and dry for a very long time... unless the polar vortex splits or there is a sudden burst of westerly momentum to drive the Atlantic through to our shores.

St Valentines garden BBQs, anyone?



Of course, it is a million miles away in forecasting terms and would probably result in anticyclonic gloom if this rang true - but it is a completely different outlook on that day last year when a 955 mb low pressure system sliced through the middle part of the UK.

Come to think of it, whose idea was it to put Valentine's Day on what is the most wintry part of the year anyway? That must make it hard for people to "get into the mood" for it. I would have thought the middle part of June would be more ideal.

There is a certain romanticism in snuggling up with your partner and warming each other up, though.

As has been said millions of times, it won't be warm at the surface under that. A classic inversion, stagnant surface air will stay cold/cool for days. If nights are clear you'll have fog and frost, but if cloudy it's a total borefest I'm afraid.

Those pinning hopes on the ECM should note the OP was much colder than the mean Day 7, which would indicate the OP will fall into line with GFS probably later.

It's Groundhog Day and it feels like it

I find keeping my socks on helps 

Some interest for the SE but more so for East Anglia from the Euro4 I see 

It's a perfect set-up for AFTER you've got a good dumping of snow in the ground (I do love a bit of anticyclonic gloom when there's snow on the ground)

Just a pity that very, very few of us have a good dumping of snow lying on the ground

LOL Ian - I think you can pretty much guarantee come Summer it's a southerly jet and cool and wet all the way.

Some of these charts come close to breaking the all time high pressure record for the UK of 1054mb

Interesting, good time to set the barometer then.

Was that record set in the summer?

Some interesting GEFS members longer term with another atlantic ridge showing on some

Hi all,

Here's today's main video update;

High Pressure All The Way;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looking like HP is in for the forseeable future.

thanks gav and TBH today has been like a early spring like day sunny and a bit chilly, bye winter its been emotional, shame it could not deliver, here in Essex,

The outlook continues to show lots of potential.