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http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_index.asp?mod=ecmwfA1EC

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Looking dry long term.

The last act of a rather dull play. 

Will it be different to the 6 o'clock news...?

The Atlantic is not waking up this is really the interesting thing about this all. The height gradient (north to south) is still rather low, until that goes up we will be seeing nothing zonal to speak of, the longer this period goes on for the more likely something interesting will eventually show up. Now the NAO is forecast to stay marginally positive (I assume because conditions are preferable in the south and unfortunate in the north), wheras the AO is forecast to go positive and then go negative or neutral again. With both the arctic and the far north atlantic working against us its going to be difficult, but if the arctic comes back on board then things could turn out pretty well. The south atlantic pattern remains good. 

Let's hope we start to see something in the model output to support this potential.   There's nothing obvious so far. 

I posted an image of the sort of thing I am referring to. 

Trust the gene genie! 

Ah, I replied before you added that.  

Don't see that? 6 or 7c progged by GFS - average for this time of year and certainly far less cold here than current temps

You carry on Quantum talking about winter at least until early April that is.

I think I need one more cold spell later this month to really be able to say my winter forecast has been quite good this time.

Apparantly the UK is really snowy at the moment...

I live in that thin green patch....

Interesting to see how this model has developed into quite alot of Europe being in the freezer

I agree one more cold spell. if it does happen it better be good, well for us in the S/SE/ESSEX/LONDON cos we has seen sod all this winter apart from a bit of frost dusting of snow and some cold/chilly days,

Just had a look at the UK part on the latest GFS output (precip, 850's, wind direction and speed, dewpoints, etc etc, etc)  and what I've seen is enough to cause my confidence level of seeing some snow IMBY tomorrow to creep up. Might get something like 6 hours of snowfall out of this delicately tuned set up (especially as pressure is rising from the north west).

Over to you, now, nature. Let's see if it can actually pull it off for me. Does feel like I do have a full house on my cards but knowing nature, it'll win by bluffing.

Looking further ahead still, I'm glad to see that high pressure is going to be close by for a good few days, that'll give me a chance to take a break from my own forecasting duty while the going become quiet.

waiting on the ECM,

We're still waiting for that pic of you both you promised us years ago. Selfie tonight holding a peace sign above his head or it never happened 

Need to get Kev B or someone on the case of detailing all the decent easterlies of the past. 10 years is quite a period to have with no decent easterly. I wonder if there are many more gaps in the past like that.

Get him  to join TWO Speedy, tell him Im here, he will remember me

I would say 5-7c would be chilly really

Exactly, I didn't say very cold ,just chilly/cold

Meanwhile some model output for the near future.  A hi-res model showing accumulated precipitation by Thursday night.  Shows over 10mm in some parts of the east.  With -8 to -10 uppers there is a chance some hillier parts might catch as much as 10mm or rainfall equivalent in the form of snow.  An outside bet but possibly Wolds and east Kent Downs for 10cms..  Or will it be too warm?  Probably.  I therefore would suggest maximum depths of a slushy 3-4 cms? NYM have the best chance of a dandy 6 inches perhaps (15cms)

Some interest in the GEFS with ridging to Greenland on a few

Pert 18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015020412/gens-18-1-324.png