UKMO still has the high further west allowing the cold air to flirt with the SE

No real change on GFS. Just a question of patience and hoping the high can move north later

None.

The 32-day control run shows a zonal spell setting in from 240 to 444, then high pressure surges NE'wards and a monster (>1060) Scandinavian High sets up. This then eventually retrogresses westwards, all the while with lows barrelling along close to the UK.

It really is groundhog day as regards the model runs

Nothing remotely interesting in the GFS 12z right out to la la land with the UK High hardly budging.

Should we start seeing these charts at the far end of the ECM from about this time next week if this is the case?

Actually early March, as has been proven on recent occasions, can deliver given the right Synoptics.

ECM more amplified with the Scandi trough digging into Europe.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020312/ECM1-120.GIF?03-0

the ens are more interesting with a few attempts at ridging north.

I guess we are in a holding pattern now and maybe the last bit of winter might deliver a sting in the tail

The precision with which the cold uppers avoid the UK coastline is uncanny

IIRC, the building blocks that led to the near-record cold March in 2013 were being put in place before the end of February. I seem to recall that there was quite a strong high in place over the UK at the end of that Feb and it was that same high that had a hand in putting us into the very cold pattern that dominated March.

high sinks more quickly on this run so perhaps we wont get stuck in the rut for too long

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020312/ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

We can only look at it retrospectively if we don't subscribe to Weatherbell or similar. From what I can make out on the verification page, it has performed well this winter.

Screenshot of the past week and the four runs that forecast for it - good out to 18 days with weakening signal beyond.

Full archive suite here.

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/mofc/verification/anomaly/anom_grp/vanomaly!2m%20temperature!Europe!mofc!2!anomaly!20150126!/

This is all getting a bit confusing for me.

I have just watched the BBC (MO) national forecast at 18:30.

He stated that by thursday they were expecting a strong easterly flow coming (and he said) straight from Germany even pointing to it on his chart. He then showed charts  with the high centred just off N Ireland and a strong ridge over the north of Scotland up towards Scandinavia.

He said that cold was expected to continue and he inferred in the south it would indeed intensify which to me indicates little if any slipping of the high south.

I then watched the Midlands reginal forecast at 18:55. Now normally they are pretty much opposed to each other when change is a foot. I just assume that they are looking at different time-scale charts.

Today, however they were singing from the same hymn sheet.

Now nowhere on the model runs today that I have seen has this scenario been depicted or even hinted at (perhaps the GEM? at 12:00), so where is the BBC (MO) getting this information from?  It is not the ECM which quickly drops the high through the UK, and  the MO has a fairly benign northerly by the weekend.  The charts he used where similar to the ones being produced yesterday morning.

So where has this information come from?  

I am at a loss, surely they cannot be making it up? Surely they cannot be using yesterday's data?

Any theories?.