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nouska
07 February 2015 23:32:48

Yes, I was just going to post the short ensembles with the last four runs - blue being most recent. High pressure over north of England maybe not such a sure thing as the op has been showing.


ITSY
08 February 2015 00:04:15
Interesting late FI cool down on GEFS. This has got more pronounced over the last 36hrs so if it's cold hunting you're after it might be one to prick the antena
Rob K
08 February 2015 00:21:40
Now that's what I call a Euro high! Barely an isobar across the whole continent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
08 February 2015 00:38:20

oh my.


 There is some Speculation that th GFS- ECM are uncertain and Very Shy to agree with the UKMO Surprise Change at 96-120 and more so the 144hr suggestion.


One or more like a few more runs to re build N Atl. Low from Cent. then NNW mid N Atl re grouped merge Depression Moving through  UK by t144 from120 this is looing more chance than the flat high GFS and the ECMWF puts for the 120 and 144hrs.


The GFS & ECM 120 - 144 proj.  locations for the  NE USA Newfoundland  P V Low and the Forecast for flat overstretched Cent. North Atlantic and E N Atl UK W NW EURO Flat high is very Od looking 12z GFS and ECM. Might mean that UKMOand the Met will be playing better over  N Atlantic developing some winter cold wet Winy Low at t144 fingers crossed.


 


 


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
tallyho_83
08 February 2015 02:50:16

Now that's what I call a Euro high! Barely an isobar across the whole continent.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif


 


Let's hope we see more of this during summer!??


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Whether Idle
08 February 2015 08:05:40
Bit slow today. A dull winter gradually signing off under a claggy high.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Maunder Minimum
08 February 2015 08:37:40


">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Let's hope we see more of this during summer!??



Nah - In July we will have a Greenie blocking HP and a prevailing wind from the NE, with frequent Channel lows. The weather pattern is 6 months out of kilter with the seasons.


 


New world order coming.
nsrobins
08 February 2015 09:02:23


I dont know if this is the right thread to ask, but I have a question to ask the qualified meteorologists amongst our number, regarding winter anticyclones. Why does the UK sometimes get clear, cold highs at this time of year & other times (more often?) predominantly cloudy ones given days on end of so called anticyclonic gloom? Is it down to the direction from which the H.P. cell approaches our shores or is it more complicated than that? 


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


It's not quite as simple as where the high 'moved' from, but the 'cloudyness' of a high depends on a number of factors, such as the upper air profiles, moisture, ground temperature, etc. Because air is descending, usually cloud and moisture is squeezed out but in winter in particular the upper temperatures (at 800 - 900mb) are often higher than the surface temperatures and cloud can be 'trapped' in layers, unable to escape or evaporate. In summer a gradient pretty much always exists surface up, so clear air and sunny skies are more likely.
You are right in that positioning also influences what air type is being pulled into the high's circulation, and hence cloud content at various levels. For example, a nice Scandy high in winter could deliver a clear, crisp airstream with low-level clouds and snow showers whereas a high centred over France will bathe us in moist, south-westerlies with low-cloud in abundance. In summer this set-up could well be clear and hot.


In short - no simple rule!


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
GIBBY
08 February 2015 09:28:20

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION
A High pressure to the West of Ireland will slip slowly SE towards the tip of SW Ireland tomorrow. A slack North wind will back NW over most areas by tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of benign and quiet weather is expected across the UK with light winds and plenty of cloud but some sunshine or clear spells with some frosts at night especially in the South. Daytime temperatures close to average. Perhaps a short period of less settled weather next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow moving eat towards Scandinavia from a position just North of the UK. This flow is maintained for a time before it ebbs and flows North and South across the UK from later next week as successive troughs of Low pressure cross East over the UK each time followed by a ridge.

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today is very High pressure based, gradually declining the exissting centre away from Britain to the SE early next week and allowing a trough of Low pressure to move East overall areas late in the week, most active over the North where a band of rain and squally winds look likely. The South will quickly become fine again as pressure rises from the SW and all areas then settle into a sustained UK High based weather pattern with the usual issues of chasing cloud amounts and identifying places where frost and fog is likely overnight.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run differs from the operational today only in as much as it keeps the second High pressure area further South behind the frontal trough that crosses east over all areas later next week. As a result there would be a stronger Westerly flow over all areas through Week 2 with further occasional rain in the North and dry and rather cloudy weather in the South. Temperatures under this regime will be average at worst and rather mild in the sheltered East.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show an 85% chance of High pressure being close to the SW or South of the UK with mild Westerly winds across the North with rain at times. The South would be largely dry and fine with patchy frosts at night. There is a 15% cluster which offer a cold zonality NW type pattern with the High much further to the SW and Low pressure over the Baltic states creating a cold NW flow for the British Isles


 


http://www.weatheron...8;HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure drifting slowly East away from the UK next week with slack winds and benign conditions expected. Later in the wind winds strengthen from the NW as Low pressure moves East to the NW  bringing an active trough East with a band of rain for all towards next weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure slowly migrating East into Europe from Southern Britain next week but holding influence under slack winds then with plenty of cloud cover and patchy overnight frosts and fogs by night the likely weather features for most

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a more mobile evolution developing later next week and beyond as the High pressure currently covering the UK moves away East into Europe and declines. The marked trough other models show is well supported here too later next week but is only the precursor to a more windy, unsettled and eventually colder period again as Low pressure eventually slips SE down the North Sea with cold NW or North winds likely by or soon after Day 10 with wintry weather developing for many.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is more High pressure orientated than GEM with the end of week trough weaker and less influential to the South before a rise of pressure next weekends restores fine and benign conditions across the UK again at the end of the run with only the far NW open to cloud and light rain in SW winds.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows a slightly more changeable pattern following the weak trough later next week with all areas falling under relatively mild Westerly winds and occasional rainfall this chiefly across the North. The High pressure is held close to but always to the South bringing the South too under mild Atlantic air with less risk of overnight frosts and fogs from this position.

 http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning maintains the prospect that pressure is biased lower to the North of the UK and higher to the South and SW. This maintains the likelihood of rather cloudy weather at times with at least a little rain, biased again towards the North while the South closest to High pressure stays dry the longest and sees the best of any sunny spells and any patchy night frost and fog in relatively mild conditions.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend today remains for High pressure to be in relative control likely positioned to the South of the UK with generally Westerly winds blowing at least across the |north of the UK

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 90.1 pts over UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 87.3. At 8 days GFS takes over with 63.3 pts over ECM's 62.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM regains superiority at 46.6 pts over GFS at 45.3.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png


http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Not a lot to report this morning especially if it's a quick return to winter your looking for with only GEM flying that flag with an operational that looks like bringing wintry weather back down from the North at the Day 10 point. Elsewhere it's much as before with High pressure looking dominant over or close to the South, steering all rain bearing systems well to the North of the UK for the most part. However, at the junction of the demise of our current High pressure later next week a trough of low pressure and attendant rainfall is expected for all albeit brief before High pressure restores command to the South or SW. All ensemble data biases this setup of High to the South or SW and Low to the North longer term with Westerly winds looking likely to be the favourite option likely to verify after next week. This means that temperatures by day would recover fully to average or above rather than the half-hearted less cold conditions the South are likely to experience in the coming week. Frosts would become less common for all under any Westerly drift and with the High proximity close to the South any significant rainfall will likely mostly affect the far North where it could become windy at times too. Having said all that this is not the only option with a smattering of members suggesting cold zonality under NW winds and even some ECM members not discounting such a thing either. What no model shows leaving the GEM model aside is any High Level blocking and to that means it looks like any sort of blast from the East can be fully discounted within the next 14 days with any hope at all of cold likely from the North on a transitory NW breeze. It looks like the February saying of 'February filldyke' is unlikely to verify this year with the month shaping up to be a very dry one for the majority.

Issued at 08:30 Sunday February 8th 2015


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
sizzle
08 February 2015 09:39:14

sounds like winter is clocking off for another year/season.  wont surprise me if march is unsettled, wet windy, or even cold,. but no snow then who needs snow in march

idj20
08 February 2015 09:39:53


 


It's not quite as simple as where the high 'moved' from, but the 'cloudyness' of a high depends on a number of factors, such as the upper air profiles, moisture, ground temperature, etc. Because air is descending, usually cloud and moisture is squeezed out but in winter in particular the upper temperatures (at 800 - 900mb) are often higher than the surface temperatures and cloud can be 'trapped' in layers, unable to escape or evaporate. In summer a gradient pretty much always exists surface up, so clear air and sunny skies are more likely.
You are right in that positioning also influences what air type is being pulled into the high's circulation, and hence cloud content at various levels. For example, a nice Scandy high in winter could deliver a clear, crisp airstream with low-level clouds and snow showers whereas a high centred over France will bathe us in moist, south-westerlies with low-cloud in abundance. In summer this set-up could well be clear and hot.


In short - no simple rule!


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Think of it as being like a fart trapped under a duvet.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Gusty
08 February 2015 10:11:15




Think of it as being like a fart trapped under a duvet.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


shamelessly off topic but relevant to the above 


http://www.ronsonwriter.com/content/view/69/9/


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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picturesareme
08 February 2015 10:37:38


 


 


Let's hope we see more of this during summer!??


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Nah - In July we will have a Greenie blocking HP and a prevailing wind from the NE, with frequent Channel lows. The weather pattern is 6 months out of kilter with the seasons.


 



 


NE winds bring warm if not hot days down here in the summer. Also would a chanel low not bring with it plumes of humid warm air on it's eastern side?

Gooner
08 February 2015 10:44:54


sounds like winter is clocking off for another year/season.  wont surprise me if march is unsettled, wet windy, or even cold,. but no snow then who needs snow in march


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


Lets hear you complaining if we had a 10-15cm fall........................I think not


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
08 February 2015 10:52:38

Bit of a taste of spring perhaps after mid-month?


Still think this winter will have a sting in the tail though...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
nsrobins
08 February 2015 10:57:28

Quantum will continue to find cracks and chinks of light, but apart from the diversion of a low skirting Scotland (how unusual for winter ), it's as you were with the fabled HLB nowhere to be seen this side of late February IMO.


We could do with another one of those sudden flips, if only to keep my mind off other non-weather related matters that I don't want to get involved with TBH.


Today is a beautiful day - sunny, feeling mild and much lighter winds. Cars being washed and lawn to get it's annual heavy rake. You can almost sense things starting to creak awake and get into the growing mood.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
David M Porter
08 February 2015 11:30:23


Bit of a taste of spring perhaps after mid-month?


Still think this winter will have a sting in the tail though...


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


It sure had a sting in the tail in 2013 Gavin, big time.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
soperman
08 February 2015 11:38:03

Hoping the models are correct and we have early spring weather in Dartmouth next weekend.


Will beat the cold gloom of London yesterday

sizzle
08 February 2015 11:43:26


 


Lets hear you complaining if we had a 10-15cm fall........................I think not


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

but its not going to happen  

white stuff
08 February 2015 11:45:48
Q. I for one hope you dont stop your analysis of the possible outcomes shown by the models. We hear year in year out the same lines about the normal weather types in this country, such as, can't get snow from a north westerly, we need a greenland/scandi high to get snow, winter is over (just before a cold spell) ect ect. I dont hear people saying "look at the chart Q just posted, better batern down the hatches, panic buy food and get the sledge ready". These people dont speak for all, and your analysis is just a interesting as theres. Keep it up m8. I wish people would come on hear and discuss the model output instead of just rubbishing other peoples comments. And if they have nothing to contribute then keep quiet, as I do.
nsrobins
08 February 2015 12:07:19

I wish people would come on hear and discuss the model output instead of just rubbishing other peoples comments. And if they have nothing to contribute then keep quiet, as I do.

Originally Posted by: white stuff 


Or as you will do from this point on you mean?


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
JACKO4EVER
08 February 2015 12:35:09
Looking forward to this benign spell that hopefully ushers out winter proper with a bit of a wimper. Looking at the charts, it could be here for some time- if we get orientation right then an early taste of spring might well be on the cards!
Bring it on!
:-)
kmoorman
08 February 2015 12:41:48

Looking forward to this benign spell that hopefully ushers out winter proper with a bit of a wimper. Looking at the charts, it could be here for some time- if we get orientation right then an early taste of spring might well be on the cards!
Bring it on!
:-)

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


Whether I see it as good or bad news, each new set of output pushes the likelihood of any cold / snowy weather for the UK even further away.  There's very little, of any signs on the latest GFS ensemble, and the latest ECM ensemble paints a similar picture - dry weather, with the possibility of frost at times, but little else to be concerned / excited about.


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html


I've just got back from walking the dogs and down where in Worthing, it's currently 7.1C, with a light wind, and in the sun it feels really spring like.


 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Hungry Tiger
08 February 2015 12:43:13




Think of it as being like a fart trapped under a duvet.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


LOL - I can see your point Ian :-)


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Andy Woodcock
08 February 2015 13:54:32

Big change next weekend as low pressure moves in, it seems to sweep the high quickly away on the latest Beeb charts.


OK the models say another high will just replace this one afterwards but lets wait and see, any chart beyond next Saturday is FI and we could be looking at something more favourable after next weekends unsettled spell.


Medioum range Charts have been upgraded several times this winter and this could happen again.


Even if the rest of winter is anticyclonic gloom its been a much better winter than some in the last 20 years and hopefully will pave the way for a more severe winter next year. If nothing else this winter for me will be memorable for this photo I took in the Lake District yesterday....superb!


UserPostedImage 


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

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