:-) Would be more than happy with that - and then think what that summer delivered.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a strengthening SW flow across Northern areas tonight and all areas tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and reasonably mild weather with some sunshine in the South and East but occasional rain possible at times especially over the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow in the process of change. It's axis will become more SW to NE in a position much further North than recently lying somewhere between Scotland and Iceland later with a deep trough setting up over the mid Atlantic.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows milder Atlantic SW'lies taking control soon as High pressure moves in close to the South of the UK and a deep Low pressure moves up towards Greenland pumping mild SW winds from the Southern latitudes of the North Atlantic across the UK soon. A trough of Low pressure will affect the North at times with a little rain. Through the run this basic pattern prevails with High pressure close to, over or just to the East of the UK warding off the worst of Atlantic fronts from all but the North and NW though the odd rogue one is shown to break through to all areas at times before pressure rebuilds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run supports the operational well again this morning with High pressure always in close proximity to the UK, especially Southern parts with fine and dry conditions for the majority of the time. However, as with the operational there are occasional interventions of troughs giving rise to more cloud and a little rain before a resurgence of High pressure follows.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a lot of High pressure domination within the pack this morning with the vast majority indicating a centre either over or just off shore of the UK with fine and dry weather largely prevailing.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning is more disappointing with the Atlantic looking too strong for any more than a brief spell of settled weather. A rain bearing trough weakens across Southern areas on Sunday with High pressure moved off to the East with a new depression swinging NE close to NW Scotland threatening further rain on SW winds for all for a time early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well up to Day 4 and 5 whereas the raw data shows a greater influence of Low pressure to the NW late on from that which was shown on the last night's 96 and 120hr charts.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM too shows High pressure close to the South at times being squeezed away far enough on occasions to allow the influence of the Atlantic over the North to extend to all parts at times with some rain for all in the generally SW or West flow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows pressure falling off slowly next week as the High close to Southern Britain at the weekend migrates further East into Europe thereafter. A South or SW flow is shown to carry an increasing threat of rain from the West later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning also shows a rather messy pattern developing next week as High pressure is shown to lose it's grip to small but significant Low pressure moving in to the NW from the Atlantic with some rain inevitably for all. The pattern evolves further into a slack pressure gradient across the UK with Low pressure ruling the weather as centres trundle in from the West weakening as they do.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart still shows a lot of High pressure domination this morning though over recent runs the axis of the ridge os being pulled slowly SE allowing more chance of a moist SW feed to affect at least the Northern parts of the UK..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The drier and anticyclonic phase has been significantly reduced in both extent and duration this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.4 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 87.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.6 pts over GFS's 59.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.8 pts over GFS at 42.4.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main theme of this morning's output is the watering down of the extent of High pressure across the UK next week. Most output suggests that the High will be less significant and dominant in halting the Atlantic bandwagon up and together with a less far north Jet flow next week than previously thought could mean occasional rain becoming a feature for many areas next week between the drier interludes still on offer. Although details are hard to pin down on specific weather events next week most output suggests at least weak troughs making it down into the South to make for grey and cloudy conditions and a little rain at times. Temperatures should not be too problematic maintaining average levels but the warmth of this weekend looks unlikely to last long at all if it indeed develops under the prominently expected cloudy skies. Winds will be mostly from a SW point and strong at times in the North tempering the temperatures still further. GFS together with it's cluster groups and the ECM 10 Day mean offer something much more settled for the UK as it's keener on High pressure more dominant and long lasting as well as milder temperatures but I would not bet against the Euro's operational's having a better handle on this and now that there is support outside of GFS for a more changeable phase to take shape next week I think it's pretty certain it will evolve albeit may be in different detail than that shown. So in a nutshell it's going to become less cold with a mix of dry, mild and bright weather with occasional interventions of cloud, wind and rain, most likely over the North but occasionally the South too with temperatures generally close to average or maybe a bit above in the brighter periods.  

Issued at 09:00 Wednesday March 4th 2015

Looks like the Atlantic starts to gain influence though next week with a risk of some rain or showers at times with temps close to average.

Oh dear. Already we are taking about the demise of the High Pressure dominated weather before it even gets going!

Certainly a strong theme of continuing high pressure on offer from the past few GFS op runs and ensemble suites for next week.

It does look like an Atlantic low will track close enough to influence NW'rn parts on Tuesday, with a second, weak disturbance possible on Thursday. In both cases, much of England and Wales stay high and dry.

The main controlling feature for our part of the world is an amplified jet stream with a major trough (dip south) in the mid-Atlantic followed by a track close to NNE to pass NW of the UK.

In some 9 or 10 days time, this inevitably subsides, but interestingly, GFS continues to be keen on repeating the sequence of events - another marked mid-Atlantic trough with a strong, resilient ridge building across the UK and Europe.

The closing charts of the op run would have storm fanatics fizzing if we were a couple of months later in time:

As it is, the 850's aren't all that impressive as the ridge throws a lot of cool air down across Europe as it moves in during days 10 and 11. The surface temperatures would be decent in the sun though 

That chart for March 20th would be good for us to view the near total sun eclipse so hoping for a very clear day to view it. 

Typical, get a nice sunny day then the moon comes in and spoils everything!

ECM refuses to back down regarding the track of that low on Tuesday - further SE than UKMO and GFS have it. The outcome looks mild and probably still fairly dry in the south, but cooler and wetter for the north, perhaps rather chilly in the far NE.

Renewed Atlantic amplification then kicks in in a similar vein to the GFS 12z op run, but with less emphasis on a new ridge from the SW, instead developing a distinct HP cell over Scandinavia that almost ends up bringing us cold air from the east by day 10. As it is, the cold air looks like running into the mild Atlantic air right over the UK, gradually mixing out... probably a cloudy but fairly dry outcome given that pressure is still pretty high and looks like staying so through days 11 and 12.

Cold air from the east is an inevitable risk when you have high pressure building toward the mid-latitudes from Europe, but there's no need to worry when it's still beyond a week's range and only supported by model which seems to have a favourism for aligning HP cells in ways that bring easterlies at the longer range... perhaps a bias toward heights being too low over Europe?

One to keep an eye on in any case, though with lower priority than the track of Tuesday's low.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move away SE today followed by a mild and in the NW strong SW flow with a trough of Low pressure slow moving across the NW

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and reasonably mild weather with some sunshine in the South and East but occasional rain possible at times especially over the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow continuing to blow strongly over the Atlantic but turning NE across the far NW of the UK before the axis moves slowly South across the UK later. Then later still it shifts well to the NW as High pressure forms over the UK.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows changeable conditions next week between High pressure to the South and Low to the far North and NW with a West or SW flow over the UK delivering occasional spells of rain and wind across the UK, always heaviest in the North. Late in the run High pressure develops across the UK before migrating further North allowing a spell of fine Spring weather with temperatures slowly falling off at the end of the run as winds become Easterly with colder air waiting in the wings to the East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run follows a similar route to the operational in the short to mid term with changeable conditions in a Westerly flow but fails to bring High pressure into play in the longer term maintaining a changeable Westerly flow of weather with wind and rain at times, most prolific towards the North. Temperatures look like holding close to average in both runs with some milder than average days in the South and below average ones in the North as polar maritime air crosses at times.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a lot of  range in the long term this morning with the bias slightly held in favour of High pressure near the Azores and Low pressure to the North with Westerly winds over the UK with rain at times for many. The other options are based around the position of High pressure close to the UK either to the NE, East or West of the UK with much drier and settled conditions as a result.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows slightly changeable conditions next week as High pressure is tantalisingly close to the South of the UK but insufficiently so to prevent fronts to cross the UK from the West on occasion bringing some rain at times chiefly to the North and temperatures generally well up to average for early March.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a broad and strong mild SW flow from the Atlantic over the next few days with a trough close to the NW. This persists for some time before a cold front crosses SE on Sunday and a more vigorous Low and troughs approach the West by early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows changeable conditions next week though High pressure never strays far away from the South of the UK with any rain reaching these parts lighter and patchier than that further North. Temperatures would be held close to average overall but rather mild in the South at times and somewhat chillier at times in the North behind cold fronts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning holds High pressure just to the South of the UK through next week, far enough South to bring a fresh to strong SW airflow across all areas at times and with troughs embedded in the flow some rain at times for all, heaviest in the North but some dry and brighter periods too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows changeable conditions too next week, especially over Northern areas as troughs periodically cross East bringing some rain for a time. Some of this could reach the South at times but amounts will be small and the underlying theme here would be for dry if rather cloudy skies in average temperatures close to High pressure to the South. Late in the run a strong European High is shown extending a ridge West to Southern Britain with the SW flow restricted to the far NW at that stage and dry, fine weather prevailing for many as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart continues it's slow trend to push the axis of High pressure once shown over the UK and Scandinavia more and more to the SE and bringing the threat of Atlantic SW winds across the UK after the next week and towards the 10 day mark.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The slightly less anticyclonic synopses that was introduced between the models yesterday is generally maintained this morning with all areas at risk of occasional rain from weakening rain bearing fronts.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.3 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.0 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.5 pts over GFS at 42.5.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Yesterdays trend towards slightly less High pressure dominated weather next week is at least part maintained between the models this morning as all are now showing High pressure squeezed further South than originally thought allowing more ingress across the UK of Atlantic winds and occasional troughs moving across from the West. With High pressure never far away to the South there looks to be little significant rainfall down here from such troughs with fine weather quickly returning after each weakening troughs passage. Things could be somewhat wetter at times to the NW though even here some drier spells could prevail at times. Temperatures look like being fairly respectable especially again over the South while polar maritime air could affect the North at times making it feel chilly here, Then we have to look further ahead and see what happens after next week with regard to the extension of High pressure influence or that of the Atlantic Westerlies and to be honest the jury is still out on that one with some Ensemble data suggesting that High pressure may migrate to Europe with the theme of somewhat colder air becoming invasive towards the UK from Europe or that the status-quo of High to the South and Low to the North is maintained with a mild Westerly themed outlook to persist. Which is right is anyone's guess at the moment but what is more certain is that no particularly aggressive weather is expected through the period with most days seeing us chasing areas of cloud and patchy rainfall or sunshine rather than anything more dramatic and on balance most areas will end up rather drier than average rather than wetter with temperatures holding average levels overall too.  

Issued at 09:00 Thursday March 5th 2015

Mild NE winds if this comes off? How come? - Doesn't this denote colder weather or is the HP too far west for this???

Oh sure not taking notice but - Atlantic? Looks like Arctic winds following the Iscor bars. - I would have though single figure temperatures.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Mild Conditions Prevail To Mid-Month;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

AO going off the scale positive next week...

Thank you Gavin.. Mild March is marvellous..

Looks like that low will be bothering us Monday/Tuesday next week... bit of a win for ECM over the other models provided we're not now being led up the garden path.

Before that, uncertainty over how fast the frontal boundary heads SE on Sunday is responsible for the variation in temperature projections. GFS is slower and so allows another fine day with mid-teens maximums for much of England. ECM is faster and brings a mild but cloudy sort of day with sporadic outbreaks of rain across western parts in particular.

It could be quite a mild run of days across England and Wales Monday-Thursday, be that via a clear route with cool nights and warm days or a cloudy one with mild nights and mild days (most likely a mixture of those).

Then questions arise regarding how much amplification occurs with the Atlantic pattern, and how the UK/Europe/Scandinavia ridge responds exactly. Slight differences in position and orientation have quite large impacts on surface conditions. We see this clearly when comparing the ECM and GFS 12z op runs:

ECM's version of events (on the left) has little in the way of low pressure over the Mediterranean to prop up the high and bring cold air around from well east of the UK. It's the sort of evolution that causes a lot of frustration in the depths of winter. The UK sits under the heavily modified remains of a polar maritime airmass... a risk of extensive low-capped cloud but not too chilly.

GFS has a notable low over Italy working to support the high and push cold air west. Trouble is, that's the sort of evolution that causes a lot of frustration at the very time it is showing for  either a seriously cold airmass or an active disturbance in the flow is needed to deliver more than very transient low level snowfall from an easterly in mid-March.

The two models seem to be playing pass the parcel with these solutions at the moment, having been on opposite sides of the argument this time yesterday.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild SW flow, strong in the North covers the UK with a slow moving trough near NW Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and reasonably mild weather with some sunshine in the South and East but occasional rain possible at times especially over the Northwest.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow continuing to blow from the Atlantic to a position to the NW of the British Isles where it remains for the next week or so. The flow remains weak and well away to the West and North of the UK later before repositioning more towards a Southern latitude late in the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a lot of dry weather across the UK over the next few weeks with weak troughs interrupting the High pressure based weather at times and possibly more extensively later as High pressure close to the South of the UK at times becomes replaced by new centres first to the NE and then away over Europe to introduce the more unsettled end to the run as Low pressure feeds in from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run looks broadly similar with various High pressure areas building then receding away to the East as occasional weak troughs retract their influence over the UK on their passage through the North and West of the UK. More generally unsettled conditions are shown moving in from the West late in the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS  The GFS Clusters show as much as 85% of members suggest High pressure being dominant centred somewhere across the UK in 2 weeks time with only 15% showing any Atlantic Westerly influence over the UK with some rain.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure developing behind Mondays trough early next week before it too relaxes away to the SE with SW winds and troughs returning to the NW by soon after midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening cold front moving SE on Sunday with a weakening band of rain crossing SE followed by a small but significant Low pressure running NE to the NW and being replaced by a strong build of pressure across the UK at the end of the 5 day period.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a SW flow to the NW of High pressure over the near continent being the main driving factor of the weather over the coming 10 days. Northern and Western parts could see occasional rain as fronts pass through at times but here too some dry and fine weather is likely on occasion.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows building and receding High pressure close to Southern Britain over the period with a SW flow the most likely prevailing winds delivering plenty of dry and bright weather but with short spells of cloud and rain moving through especially towards the North and West on occasion.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a mostly SW flow across the UK at first with occasional troughs delivering rain in the North and West at times. Later in the priod the SW flow decays as High pressure relocates to the NE of the UK and intensifies further. The end of the run shows fine weather under a strong ridge West across the UK from it's centre over Eastern Europe

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather in 10 days with a centre to the east allowing a SE flow across the UK with troughs held well away to the NW along with the Jet flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Yesterdays weaker High pressure influence has become more muted again this morning with many places seeing a lot of dry weather in the 14 day model period with meaningful rain very occasional and affecting only the far NW.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.1 pts over UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 86.7. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.2 pts over GFS's 60.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.9 pts over GFS at 42.2.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The weather over the next few weeks remains focused on the behaviour of High pressure and it's positioning in relation to the UK over the coming weeks. There has been increased support this morning for the influence to be greater and more extensive than was shown yesterday with amounts of rain from weak Atlantic fronts grazing the High pressure area weak and more restricted towards the NW as the High pressure looks most likely to lie close to the South and SE of the UK than anywhere else. However, some output does show the odd trough making it through the High pressure block with a little rain possible even in the South very briefly but this is the exception rather than the rule until very late in the run. I have been careful this morning in not making much comment on temperatures within the individual model runs as the positioning of the High and the prevailing winds around it being crucial in determining surface temperatures across the UK. What I can say is that it is unlikely to be particularly cold at any juncture through the period especially by day and with many output runs showing a High just to the SE some very mild weather can be expected at times in the prevailing SW wind. Some output particularly ECM carry High pressure across Europe later with a strong ridge lying West over the UK and I suppose it is feasible that any Easterly drift on the Southern flank of that ridge could drag colder air across from Europe though as it stands the air across Europe never looks particularly cold as things stand this morning and the desire to push the ridge further South and bringing back a SW feed is more likely given that the Jet flow is programmed to remain well to the North and NW of the UK throughout. So finally it looks like we are in for a spell of very decent weather across the UK with small amounts of rain for most expected away from the high ground of the NW, sunny and cloudier spells alternating day to day and reasonably mild weather on offer too with frost and cold weather levels largely infrequent through the next few weeks.  

Issued at 09:00 Friday March 6th 2015

Thank you Martin for the output.. Some good seed planting weather if not too dry.. Plants will like .. 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

High Pressure Holds Sway With JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Plenty of settled weather for March if correct.

The 12z GFS op is in line with the previous two op runs... 1050mb high close by for next weekend, persisting into the following week and well beyond. In fact it takes until right near the end of the run to start losing its definition! 

If that high was just a little closer, record high pressure values would be possible.

Over the past week or so I've seen a couple of charts (One ECM one GFS) that actually showed the 1050 isobar over the UK mainland. Don't think Ive ever seen that before, and then I see two from different models within a week. There must be something going on that keeps making the models want to show up exceptionally intense anticyclones.