ECM 240 actually showing a possible deep cold incursion. With such a low height gradient, and the pattern clearly being the most blocked since November, there is potential here provided the High relocates further north. Honestly I don't think that scandi high will produce any low level snow.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MARCH 10TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An area of High pressure will move East across the South of the UK today followed by a warm and then cold front into SW and Western Britain late tonight and more especially tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow setting up well NW of the UK late this week moving in a NE direction over Iceland. The trend thereafter is for it to gradually move back South through Week 2 towards and over the UK in a West to East flow as High pressure declines to the East.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows High pressure developing from the East of the UK from the weekend replacing the changeable weather pattern currently over the UK. The High will take the form of a ridge with it's axis across the UK allowing a chilly East drift across the South and gradually more unstable weather with some showers as pressure gradually leaks away later next week. The theme towards the end of the run is for the Atlantic is to break through with rain and strong winds at times for all by the end of the period in Westerly winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run follows the operational route in the first half of the output range this morning but rather than allow an Atlantic breakthrough to take place later maintains a High pressure bias in a ridge form across the UK intercepted at times by weakening troughs of Low pressure and occasional rain amost anywhere with light winds and temperatures often on the cool side of average.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS The story from the GFS clusters this morning is for overwhelming support for High pressure to have retreated back to be to the SW and west of the UK with a NW flow across the UK with Low pressure close enough to the NE and north to deliver rain and showers down across the UK at times though some of the members have higher pressure closer in to the SW with rain more restricted towards the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a slow movong front on Friday retreating back west as pressure builds across the UK from the East. The weather will become rather chilly and rather cloudy later in the weekend as winds pick up a little from the East or SE especially across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows the raw data pattern well as the troughs of Low pressure moving in from the West from tonight until Friday retreat back West by the weekend as a High pressure ridge from High pressure over Europe extends its influence. A chill East wind looks likely over the South later in the weekend under rather cloudy skies.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM  GEM today shows the influence of the ridge from Europe at the weekend rather short-lived as the east flow veers South and strengthens in response to deep Low pressure moving close to western Britain next week with rain and strong winds for all for a time with the run ending wih further Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a slow dip back into Atlantic based weather later next week as Low pressure over the Atlantic slowly displaces the High pressure ridge from Europe over Southern Britain until that time. A lot of dry weather though would be encountered across the UK from the weekend and up to that point.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the High pressure ridge building at the weekend before weakening again next week as a small disturbance runs NW and then North across the UK with chilly and cloudy skies with a little rain possible. Conditions then turn more Atlantic based as pressure falls to the North with Westerly winds bringing some rain at times across the UK late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN  The 10 Day Mean Chart is rather different this morning with an Azores High back in it's home location with the European High declining and moving away East. This allows pressure to fall to the North of the UK from most members with an increasing risk of Atlantic Westerly winds and occasional rain developing late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for a period of High pressure based weather from a centre over Europe reamins today though there are signs that it may be displaced later, most likely from an Atlantic source.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.7 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.9 pts over UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.7. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 68.9 pts over GFS's 61.7 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.9 pts over GFS at 44.9.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The weather pattern is going according to plan this week with the expected changeable week and followed by a change to more settled conditions before the weekend still on course to occur. The duration and extent of such an improvement is slowly becoming clearer through the output this morning as it looks like a rather chilly and cloud laden period of weather looks likely over the weekend and start of next week as the ridge sets up its axis across the UK. With some disturbances in the upper atmosphere pulled up in the slowly veering wind a little rain is possible across the South next week extending north later which looks like being the catalyst towards the risk of more changeable conditions developing again as the Atlantic becomes rather more active again. This change looks like being rather slow with a lot of dry and benign conditions for many before cloud and rain moves in from the West in more meaningful fashion late next week and beyond but there is quite a lot of support within ensemble data for such an event to take place. At the very end of the period from ECM it looks like there is a chance of a Northerly incursion to take place very late in the period although this falls in the scope of sheer speculation at this range but is something to keep an eye on over the coming days being that it was hinted at in lasts night noon outputs as well. Meanwhile a period of fairly quiet weather is to come with only small amounts of rain, a lot of cloud and a marked chill in the air likely next week before we slip back into something more unsettled some 10-14 days from now.  

Issued at 09:00 Tuesday March 10th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Easterlies To Start Next Week But Then What?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Some uncertainty Re. next weeks weather.

This March is "Still wagging it's tail" with the weather.

That GFS run is a marked departure from the previous few and disagrees strongly with ECM... confidence in such an outcome is low.

ECM shows good consistency with its 00z op run, a ridge building across the UK from the SW to bring a few more springlike days before pressure rises over Greenland - at least that's in common with GFS - and a low drops down from the NW for day 10.

That height rise to the NW is a most unwelcome sight, though not as unwelcome as it would be two or three months later in time! 

It does look possible that the longer range signal for March from the models will end up well wide of the mark, having indicated persistent high pressure to the SE of the UK (rather than east) with heights to the northwest notably low suggesting little in the way of high pressure over Greenland.

On the other hand, we've seen such suggestions in the 8-10 day range get scrapped many times over the past few months and who's to say that it has to work out differently now that we're in spring? (I know, 'sods law'...)

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MARCH 11TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A series of fronts will cross the UK today and tonight with a trailing cold front becoming slow moving over Southern Britain tonight returning back north and East tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow setting up well NW of the UK late this week moving in a NE direction over Iceland. The trend thereafter is for it to gradually move back South through Week 2 and strengthen as High pressure to the east gives way to UK based lower pressure.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows High pressure over Europe becoming dominant for a time from this weekend well into next week with a ridge lying across the UK feeding chilly but light breezes from Europe. The flow then switches back towards a SW flow by next weekend and the second half of the run is typified by strong winds and heavy rain at times as Low pressure areas swing across the UK from off the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is much the same in the short to mid term as the operational with a slower track towards rather cold and unsettled windy weather later as Low pressure moves down over the UK from the NW dragging some cold polar air with it at times with no doubt some snow for a time in the North.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS Not Available at time of issue this morning. See link below for later update.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the ridge from the East once developed holding firm well into next week with a lot of quiet and benign weather conditions likely across the UK with a lot of cloud, perhaps a little rain and a chilly feel in the East or SE feed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the theme of the operational well with old Atlantic troughs pushed West out of the UK and leaving the sack East or SE flow and rather quiet and chilly conditions across the UK to begin next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today follows the GFS theme for its latter stages with the quiet continental drift of air early in the week slowly being replaced by an Atlantic feed again with low pressure moving in and disrupting across the UK as it comes up against the Euro block and delivering outbreaks of rain at times and possibly some hill snow in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a breakdown from off the Atlantic taking over from the benign conditions of early in the week from the Euro High. Low pressure later next weeks feeds wind and rain into most areas by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a very changeable pattern as the slack Continental flow under the ridge gives way briefly towards the middle of next week with some rain as a trough moves East. A return to a large UK High then is quickly displaced from the NW by more coherent wind and rain and chilly conditions late in the period as Low pressure deepens and moves down across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning shows growing support for a Northerly in 10 days time as pressure lowers over Europe and pressure ridges North across the mid Atlantic with the Jet flow shoved a long way South of the UK and NW Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The period of benign and chilly conditions early next week looks like being displaced later by a trend towards more unsettled weather from the West or NW.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.9 pts over UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 87.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 69.6 pts over GFS's 62.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.1 pts over GFS at 45.4.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Changes in the longer term pattern are the main focus of interest within the models this morning as the now well documented pressure rise and ridge from Europe now looks a certainty from the end of the week supported by all output. This will bring a lot of cloud unfortunately and as a result of this and a light breeze from the East or SE it will feel cold with any brightness to the West and NW of high ground to the East or SE. It's from the middle of next week when changes begin to take place as the winds veer towards the South and then SW with pressure falling from the West. Troughs of Low pressure then look like taking control across the UK in one shape or another with a variety of options shown on how this transpires within the output today. the message is though that cloud, wind and rain is very likely by the second weekend leading on into a much more unsettled spell with rain at times towards the end of the period. It may also turn rather cold as there is also support for the change to unsettled conditions to feed colder air down from the NW at times late in the period with some snow likely to return to Northern high ground at the end of the period, this looking very possible if the ECM 10 day mean chart was to verify. My own thoughts lie in the camp of the return to Atlantic Westerlies looking likely later this month with alternating spells of rain with strong and colder more showery periods in winds North of West. I also feel that there will not be any particularly mild March conditions across the UK this year with potentially rather chilly conditions looking rather more likely than early Spring warmth though having said that particularly wintry conditions away from the highest ground looks unlikely.  

Issued at 09:00 Wednesday March 11th 2015

Major differences between ECM and GFS in the 6-10 day range this morning, with GFS developing two seperate lows in the western N. Atlantic, the eastern one racing east to end up just N. of the UK by day 8, while ECM has just one, large storm system which throws up a strong ridge ahead of it.

Both are more or less in keeping with the theme of their previous respective runs.

UKMO is in the GFS camp, so ECM's more settled outlook for the period may be a bit of a red herring, which is a shame because it looks springlike for a couple of days and then dives the trough more to our west than GFS, which allows temperatures to hold up a little higher.

The most dramatic chart of the morning is ECM's day 10, which is close to a winter dream:

Many 'if only it was...' comments if something like that comes into fruition. It does seem to rely on the amplification of the pattern in the 6-8 day range though, so not something to hang your hat on.

A lot of northern blocking on the GFS 06z so far and quite cold at times to with rain threating the south for much of the time from southerly tracking lows.

Proper cold air isn't far away either which of course could make things more wintry.

I clearly understand that for the next 8 days at least the Scandy High over much of Europe will affect the UK and we look like seeing large diurnal day- night temp. fluctuations and Continental flow in charge there looks set to be cold nights but that depends on clouds at night and early- late parts of day, if during daytime we get sunshine, it will be Spring temperatures and they will make it stay normal for Mid- March.

The GFS and UKMO back this pattern.

The areas of NW and far North Altantic will see Low Pressures on a more northern positions tracks, but next few days we see some of these coming closer to us, and a bit to the South at Mid Lattitudes, later they bind out away to NW and far North far NE, including SE Arctic Norwegian Sea route they will use.

By Tuesday and Wednesday the NW and Central mid North Atlantic areas of  Polar Vortex Low Pressure will try and cross the UK from West going NE across NW Europe via UK West mid N Atlantic side, some mild air in their South sides but mixing with Cold air of the NW and North Arlantic this could bring a mix of extremes to UK weather that features mild sectors and also some colder pooling, by day 9-11.

If only it were . . . .

I see the GFS control is making a huge effort to advect the second cold pool west next week which would, if everything clicks, threaten wintry conditions in some areas with 850s down to -10 which for mid/late March may just do the job.

Why didn't this happen in January. The age old question LOL.

Well I for one am relieved to see ECM continuing to play the Azores High in our favour instead of the Scandi High for Tue-Thu next week, with UKMO now in support.

It's saying something when you find yourself staring longingly at a couple of dry, warmer than average days at a week's range. It's like chasing a cold easterly in winter 

With UKMO having only just jumped ship, this spell of disagreement is far from over... in fact UKMO still has some notable differences to ECM as there's not as much amplification taking place in the Atlantic on days 5-6.

The GFS 18Z Op run would, were it January, probably be one of the all time classic stella pub runs.

Oh the incredible irony of it all LOL

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY MARCH 12TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A front moving in from the West today will decelerate across Central Britain tomorrow before stagnating and moving back West by the end of the day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow changing it's pattern. It relocates well West of the UK flowing North towards Iceland for the coming days. Later next week the link to the Northern arm is severed and the Southern arm becomes more dominant near Spain moving North slowly towards the UK later in the period in a stronger West to East motion.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows High pressure over Europe becoming dominant for a time with SE or East winds over the weekend and start to next week. This pattern then weakens from the SW next week as Low pressure edges up to bring some rain at times from midweek. The North and East will be the last to see the change to more unsettled weather and indeed it may not reach here at all until a second change brings Low pressure down from the NW towards the end of the run switching winds into the West and giving rain and strong winds at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is similar in the short term before the unsettled weather reaching the South midweek is accompanied by ever colder East and then North winds when all areas become cold and unsettled with wintry showers and strong cold North winds for all for a time. This then becomes replaced by a return to Atlantic winds from the West with milder and changeable conditions with rain at times towards the end of the second week.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS There is a split of 65/35 in favour of High pressure likely to be dominant close to the South of the UK in a fortnight's time with Westerly winds and occasional rain restricted to the North. The 35% indicates a much more coherent Atlantic Low pressure domination more likely with wind and rain at times for all.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the ridge from the East holding control early next week with the cold East wind falling out for many areas making it feel less cold and brighter for some. By the middle of next week the weather remains benign as the UK lies in nomansland between Low to the North and South and High to the East and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the theme of the operational well with a slack and cold East flow on the Southern flank of the strong High pressure over NE Europe remaining in control but with a lot of cloud and possibly the odd shower in the flow.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows the High pressure over Europe losing it's grip next week as the East flow across the UK veers South and dies out as new High pressure near the Azores ridges across the South of the UK later with fine and milder conditions while the North sees more of a Westerly flow with occasional rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM differs to GEM and relaeases the continental High pressure's influence across the UK  next week in return for Low pressure edging in from off the Atlantic albeit slowly to leave all areas under cyclonic winds at the end of the period with wind and rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the slow decline of High pressure to the East next week only to be replaced by a strong Anticylcone lying across the UK late next week with fine and settled weather with sunny days and cold, frosty nights. Then towards the end of the run the High retrogresses West into the Atlantic with a cold Northerly flow already over Europe by then looking like beginning to affect the UK late in the period with an increasing chance of wintry showers in the North and East in maintained rather cold weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning shows a NW flow across the UK made up from various options including Northerly winds and cold weather and milder Westerly winds with High pressure close to the South of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The collapse of the European High next week is well supported but the evolutions from that show no reliable trend today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.7. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.0 pts over UKMO at 89.4 pts and GFS at 87.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 69.5 pts over GFS's 62.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.3 pts over GFS at 45.7.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS All models agree that a spell of chilly East winds will set up shop across the UK for the coming 4-5 days. Had it been a couple of months ago we could of well been in for a deep freeze with much more resilience from the elements on changes thereafter. As it is this late season event will produce a good chill for many with a lot of cloud and the odd shower likely but only for a relatively short period before some sort of paatern change develops from the SW. There is a lot of disagreement this morning on how this change takes place with the Euro models looking like bringing the Azores High NE into the UK with fine and dry weather with much more sunshine but frosty nights more likely whereas the models from the other side of the Atlantic more akin to traditional March weather with wind and rain from Atlantic depressions slowly taking control across the UK later in temperatures closer to average. However, having said all that the chances of a Northerly incursion taking shape in the extended output is very strong this morning with the GFS control run being the most of dramatic in this event and the ECM 10 day operational chart leaning the same way. So not too much confidence on the longer term projections this morning with a variety of options all possible following the demise of the High pressure ridge from the East next week. What can be said there is little sign of any particularly mild weather in the next two weeks with the more likelihood of rather cold weather at times much more likely. In terms of rainfall there looks like a reasonable amount of dry weather at times with the caveat that should the Atlantic break through as some output shows then things could turn rather wetter late in the period.  

Issued at 09:00 Thursday March 12th 2015

BBC extended forecast last night referred to all your three possible outcomes, Martin, and said he "hoped" things would be more definite by tonight

Indeed, we say how hard it is to get the right conditions and yet here are .

Louise Lear commented how if this had been in January we would be talking about a fair bit of wintry weather

Hey ho

Been crying out for something like this for the last 10 weeks lol

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

GFS Going To Town With Blocking;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Risk of a late blast of winter?

So we look to be seeing some notable stratospheric warming in a terrible place for those looking for late March warmth... such positioning encourages the vortex to move to Siberia, hence the sort of output we're seeing in the 9-10 day range at the moment.

The question is, how strong will the response be? We saw so many complications reducing the level of impact last winter, but who's betting they will have gone AWOL this time around 

Before that, disagreement over next week's weather remains strong and in a similar vein to my summary yesterday. By and large, it comes down to GFS being flatter with the Atlantic pattern days 4-5; LP to the west of the UK finds itself positioned favourably relative to the jet for intensification, whereas the more amplified solution offered by the other models places LP on the NE side of a mid-Atlantic ridge, a region in which upper level convergence tends to weaken low pressure systems - GEM shows this clearly:

At the upper levels, the air spreads apart (arrows move apart) toward the peak of the ridge (divergence aloft), then moves back together again on the eastern flank (convergence aloft).

That would be very welcome

GFS does seem to be playing catch-up with the Atlantic ridge, at last building it NE to the UK which is more in line with the other models.

Now the main issue seems to be how much cold air come around the eastern, then southern flanks of the Scandi High next week. GFS is keen on the high being stretched out west to east, which draws some cold air almost due west from the western reaches of Russia, reaching the UK next Wednesday. On the 12z op, an Atlantic low deflected the cold away from the UK before it could reach us, but the 18z op does no such thing and brings another two days with 5-8*C maximums for Wed-Thu next week.

Then follows a fairly unsettled 8-16 day period, temperatures varying from a bit below to a bit above average, which is similar to the 12z op.

ECM has very different ideas for both the mid-range and longer-term. The Scandi High is more rounded in shape early next week, which sends the cold toward Turkey or thereabouts. A strong Azores Ridge is able to take over by Wednesday as opposed to the Scandi High maintaining control (though worth noting that the GFS 12z op didn't go with either of these options - seemingly caught between two minds).

The ECM 12z op finishes with a strong high close to the west (that's been trending east over the past few runs, with the broad theme very consistent over the past four runs or so). There's little sign of a train of Atlantic lows coming our way for the foreseeable based on it's day 9-10 evolution - just a glancing blow from a low dropping into Scandi.

As Gavin823 highlighted earlier, the Euro's have been the most consistent (by far) these past few days, or at least ECM has, with UKMO jumping ship yesterday morning but having stayed close to ECM since... or at least, closer to ECM than to GFS.

Really the level of uncertainty is really on the high side for next week - temperatures and precipitation can't be anticipated even on a broader scale, though I am leaning in favour of near to above average temperatures by day at least, given the persistence with this theme across recent ECM and UKMO output, which I tend to have more faith in for the 5-6 day period than a flailing GFS model 

High Pressure all the way from the 0z GFS.

Dry weather = Good times for getting things done in the garden and life in general. 

no chance..you can guarentee this time around that the North Sea will fire up some rainy convection courtesy of the easterly.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY MARCH 13TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A front across Central Britain this morning will weaken and move West with a cold and fresh Easterly wind establishing across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially at first in the South and in the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the the main thrust of the flow moving North across the Atlantic, Iceland and the Norwegian Sea. Meanwhile a Southern arm over Spain and Portugal blows for a time before the Northern hemispheric jet flow pattern becomes more confused and disorientated late in the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run today shows a lot of High pressure based weather, firstly over Europe giving the UK a spell of cold east winds and later over the UK with more sunshine, lighter winds and night frosts most likely at that time. the pattern looks more unsettled later with rain at times as Low pressure gradually takes at least temporary control over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is somewhat different as the cold East then SE flow across the UK looks like lasting for much of next week with an increasing threat of unsettled weather creeping into Southern and later Central areas with rain or even sleet at times in places. Its not until a ridge collapses SE across the UK later in the period that a spell of equally chilly but unsettled weather under West or NW winds bringing spells of rain and wintry showers across the UK.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS There is a large differentiality between the members of the GFS pack this morning in where we will be synoptically in 2 weeks time. High pressure is likely to be towards the South and SW of the UK by then but what is at disagreement is the influence of Low pressure to the North of the UK and how much influence affects the British Isles.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the ridge from the East holding control early next week with the cold East wind lasting at least to the middle of the week across the South as High pressure builds over the North. rather cloudy skies with light showers look likely before more generally dry and perhaps brighter conditions feed South later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the theme of the operational well with a well established High well to the NE of the UK with a complex and slack Easterly flow across the UK with weak disturbances feeding West at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows the High pressure over Europe gradually transferring its influence from Europe to lie over the UK for a time and then further West onto the Atlantic with a chilly Northerly influence setting up to some extent across the UK later with perhaps slightly less settled conditions too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM differs to GEM and relaeases the continental High pressure's influence across the UK  next week in return for Low pressure edging in from the NW albeit slowly to leave all areas under cyclonic winds at the end of the period with wind and rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a complex and slowly changing High pressure based pattern over the next week. The winds will be maintained largely from an Easterly source with rather cold conditions persisting, especially in the South. High pressure developing close to the North later next week gives dry and fine weather ahead of a fall in pressure from the North at the closing days of the period with wind and rain edging South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning is slowly edging towards a more Atlantic based Westerly feed with rain at times as we approach the 10 day mark replacing the High pressure based pattern beforehand.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The collapse of the European High next week is well supported but the evolutions thereafter continue to show no concistency today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.7. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 86.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 68.7 pts over GFS's 62.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 51.1 pts over GFS at 46.3.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There is good support in the short term model runs this morning for a spell of chilly Easterly winds, rather cloudy skies and light showers, perhaps wintry in places over the next 4-5 days as High pressure to the NE of the UK remains dominant. As next week passes it still looks like a rise of pressure will also occur to the West and NW of the UK feeding drier and clearer conditions with more sunshine and frosty nights late next week. From that point on though conditions look much more sceptical and uncertain with a variety of options on the table, most leaning towards a gradual return to more Atlantic based weather though this in itself doesn't look like being the mild and changeable variety with most of the options I've seen this morning supporting this theme looking like bringing quite cold air from the North with it, especially over the North. The details of the longer term this morning is too hard to call so the best summary I can give is for most folks to have to look forward to a spell of rather cold weather under a lot of cloud and a few showers, these across the South and especially early next week. Later in the week more sunshine could develop with perhaps more in the way of frost by night before a more unsettled patten may develop from the North late in the period.  

Issued at 09:00 Friday March 13th 2015

FFS