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Verdict?
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
At least it gave us something to talk about in the "build up"
Bin it.
Very good result for E and NE USA but didn't work out for NW Europe at all well
Put it this way I don't think it will be discussed with as much enthusiasm this October.
It will probably be plus figure in October and we will be buried up to our waist in snow the following Winter, putting a further nail in OPI coffin
Little correlation with what happened, unfortunately:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
One swallow doesn't a summer make, but the first real test of the OPI hasn't shown it in a good light...
Originally Posted by: Retron
Very good summary IMO.
A different angle this, but how often does the AO climb all the way up to +6 as shown for a week's time...? Seems pretty extreme
The mean AO index figure for winter 2014/15 was +0.85. This is one of the highest figures in the historic series going back to 1950. So the OPI was a very poor predictor of the AO index this year.
Highest DJF AO index mean figures
1988/89 2.69 1992/93 1.771989/90 1.251999/00 1.131991/92 1.091972/73 1.092006/07 1.001975/76 0.992007/08 0.862014/15 0.85
So winter 2014/15 saw the 10th highest AO index in the last 65 years
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser
The AO index exceeded +5 yesterday (7 March). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html
Prior to yesterday the AO index had only exceeded +5 on 14 days since 1950. So this is indeed very unusual. The AO index has never reached 6 so it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few days. All previous instances of a >+5 index have been in Dec, Jan or Feb.
Highest daily AO figures on record