Yikes... the GFS 06z operational would be good for a CET close to 11*C by month's end based on an estimate of 11.2*C to the 22nd.

That is an exceptional pattern being modeled though; low pressure keeps on developing near or over the Azores, and rather than pushing east or northeast as it did on the 00z, there is enough forcing from ridges in the mid-Atlantic to hold the trough back and even retrogress it west at times. The warmth just keeps on reloading from Europe again and again.

This is the very thing that I feel the current SST pattern favours, due to an enhanced temperature gradient (relative to the LTA) near the Azores and much reduced gradient near the UK and Europe:

See how there's negative anomalies north of positive anomalies in the central North Atlantic, while the situation is reversed just west of Europe and around the UK - though the positive anomalies are weak to the SW of the UK so not such a strong effect there.

I do reckon a prerequisite for the SSTs to force the jet stream and synoptic patterns, the polar vortex has to be in a weakened state, which means it's unlikely to be having much to say in things during a typical winter but could be quite significant once the vortex undergoes the usual collapse in the middle part of spring.

That's precisely what the models are showing over the coming 10 days. Fascinating times from a personal research perspective 

Great chart GW,Many Thanks!

Informative and interesting and have been studying it for a while.

One observation that sticks out like a sore thumb is September,only 1 at 0.5c below average in over 20 years now and the last cold autumn,as a season, was 1993.

We are long overdue a cold September and autumn!

I'm in trouble

somethings come along and its burst my bubble! Yeah yeah

A much cooler run from GFS this morning, as the mid-Atlantic low is further southwest, resulting in high pressure to the west rather than east of the UK, which is then able to reach to the high latitudes due to a more amplified jet pattern than seen in previous runs.

So some hope for those who didn't go for a month some 1-2*C above the LTA... as yet, no support from ECM though, so GFS might just be throwing out a red herring. The 12z runs will be of some interest in light of this.

Met Office Hadley       8.6c.   Anomaly     2.1c.    Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                   8.03c. Anomaly    -0.01c.

N-W                            8.69c.  Anomaly    0.6c.

Mount    Sorrel            8.5c.   Anomaly    0.4c.

My  Mean                    9.4c.   Anomaly    O.6c.     

Although we've seen some high daytime temps, the clear skies have also produced some very low night temps keeping the averages down but with a little more cloud cover the night time temps won't be as low so the daily averages could be even higher.

Met Office Hadley     8.8c.     Anomaly    2.3c.   Provisional to  8th.

Metcheck                 8.24c.   Anomaly     0.22c.

N-W                          8.95c.   Anomaly    0.86c.

Mount  Sorrel           8.6c.     Anomaly     0.5c.

My  Mean                 9.9c.     Anomaly     1.1c.           

The weekend's cooler temperatures will help to bring the CET back down toward the LTA... but not all that far, and by Tuesday it looks like it will be soaring again.

Unless the output changes significantly, we could be seeing an anomaly for the first half of April close to +2.5*C which is not to be sniffed at!

It's starting to look like the models were too late to catch on to the warm theme for April - it was only on the final day of March that the onslaught of runs yielding near or below average CET estimates came to an end. At the time, there was not enough run to run consistency to abandon the signal for the preceding five days and so I had to go with a figure close to the LTA.

This experiment is presenting a strong case for going with your gut feeling - in fact I reckon you'd be better off throwing a dart at a board displaying a matrix of possible CET values from a range of 15 feet and going with whatever value it landed on 

Yup. At the end of March the first week of April looked cloudy and thus probably cool - we've all seen such highs. April turns up and almost magically the cloud cleared and the rest is history. I think I could be 2C wrong

But, I've no doubt better and better science beats gut feeling.

I've not doubt the science will improve but models rely on human input getting better.

Not Cooler....

Met  office  Hadley      9.0c.     Anomaly    2.5c.   Provisional   to  9th.

Met Check                     8.51c     Anomaly     0.29c.

N-W                               9.2c.      Anomaly     1.11c.

Mount     Sorrel            10.2c      Anomaly     1.4c.

My    Mean                   10.2c.     Anomaly     1.4c

Met Office Hadley      9.3c.    Anomaly     2.7c.     provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                  8.86c.  Anomaly      0.85c.

N-W                           9.56c.  Anomaly     1.47c.

Mount    Sorrel          9.5c.    Anomaly     1.4c.

Clevedon Weather   10.7c.    Anomaly      1.5c.

My Mean                 10.4c     Anomaly      1.6c.

My Annual                 6.5c.    Anomaly      0.8c.

Met Office Hadley      9.2c.     Anomaly     2.6c.   Provisional to  11th.

Metcheck                  8.77c.   Anomaly     0.75c.

N-W                          9.57c.   Anomaly     1.48c.

Mount    Sorrel          9.2c.     Anomaly     1.1c.

Clevedon  Weather    10.5c.   Anomaly     0.6c.

My   Mean                 10.3c    Anomaly    1.5c.

My   Annual                 6.4c.  Anomaly     0.7c.

Met Office Hadley       9.2c.      Anomaly      2.5c.   Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                   8.61c.    Anomaly      0.59c.

N-W                           9.51c.    Anomaly      1.42c.

Mount  Sorrel             8.9c       Anomaly      0.8c.

Clevedon Weather      10.6c.    Anomaly      0.5c.

My   Mean                 10.3c.     Anomaly     1.5c.        

Looks like it could have peaked a bit soon for most of us.  As much as I want it to stay where it is, I'd sacrifice a few points for a few degrees. 

Met Office Hadley     9.2c.     Anomaly      2.4c.

Metcheck                 8.79c.   Anomaly      0.77c.

N-W                         9.54c.    Anomaly     1.45c.

Mount   Sorrel          9.3c.     Anomaly     1.2c.

Clevedon  Weather   10.7c.   Anomaly     0.4c

My     Mean              10.5c.  Anomaly     1.7c.      

Met Office Hadley     9.4c.     Anomaly      2.5c.    Provisional  to 14th.

Metcheck                 9.11c.   Anomaly      1.09c.

N-W                         9.79c.   Anomaly      1.7c.

Mount   Sorrel          9.7c.     Anomaly       1.6c.

Clevedon Weather    10.7c.   Anomaly        0.5c.

My Mean                  10.6c.   Anomaly       1.8c.       

It sure would be in for a boot skyward today if the very warm weather extended further to the NW... as it is, some lower readings in the western half of the CET region may moderate the effect at least a little.

Tomorrow looks good from my perspective; still pretty warm IMBY yet cool enough in the CET zone to halt the rise, maybe even turn it around (I've not run the numbers through yet today - spent many hours cycling 37.8 miles).

It's quite surprising that the first half of the month has been so warm and the models didn't pick it up until very late.  If the rest of the month gives more of the same, I'd be happy although we do need some rain.

Met Office Hadley       9.5c.      Anomaly      2.5c.    provisional to  15th.

Metcheck                   9.25c.    Anomaly      1.23c.

N-W                            9.97c.    Anomaly     1.88c.

Mount  Sorrel             9.8c.      Anomaly      1.7c.

Clevedon Weather      10.7c.    Anomaly      0.4c.

My   Mean                 10.9c.     Anomaly      2.1c. 

The April CET currently stands at 9.37C by my calculations. For the second half of the month it currently looks like we will see only a slow rise. I am currently expecting the CET to finish at 9.58C. That is still 1.5C above the 1971-2000 mean and 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. So another very warm April looks to be on the cards.