Hints from some models that the Atlantic pattern will take a big step back east again shortly into May to restore a warmer regime for the UK... but GFS still manages to find ways to avoid that so nothing's all that clear at this stage. I'm hoping GFS is just getting a bit caught up in the moment, trying to repeat the pattern in lower-res when really it will be time to move on.

What is clear is that at least part of next week looks notably chilly, with the risk of secondary lows bringing some spells of more organised rain, otherwise a showery regime controlled by a low to the E/NE of the UK and a mid-Atlantic ridge initially combined with a Greenland High but soon becoming disconnected, drifting slowly east to gradually raise the pressure across the UK.

I prefer ECM's cleaner version with less secondary lows, as that allows for more in the way of sunshine and active convection rather than grey skies with steady precipitation.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY APRIL 23RD 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will slowly decline across Britain today as a trough of Low pressure moves South towards Northern Scotland and another one approaches the SW of the UK from off the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled  and changeable with bright spells and showers, heavy and wintry on hills in the North for a time. Local night frosts still likely.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Northern arm of the jet is expected to slip South towards and eventually across the UK amalgamating with the Southern arm moving up from the South. The flow then basically continues across the UK in one form or another for the remainder of the duration of the output today.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure declining quite quickly now and being replaced by Low pressure moving up from the SW and eventually settling to the Northeast of the UK. Rain and showers look like becoming established with a cold Northerly interlude next week when wintry showers could occur over Northern hills for a time. Things then warm up somewhat as winds turn SW but the unsettled theme looks likely to continue with rain and showers at times but with pressure higher to the South some decent dry spells look likely later across the South and East with the most unsettled conditions returning towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control run is very different beyond the first week with the colder period next week extended somewhat as High pressure gradually extends East across the UK at the end of next week with dry and fine conditions for a time before High pressure migrates to the North of the UK setting up a cool Easterly flow across the UK with some showers possible at times across the South.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today show 50% of the pack hoing for a Low pressure based theme likely two weeks from now with Low pressure likely to lie over or to the NW of the UK with a lesser number of members contrastingly suggesting a ridge of High pressure lying across the UK from the West or SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows Low pressure taking control of the weather over the coming weekend with a mix of sunshine and showers in average temperatures. early next week the model continues to restrict the surge of cold air reaching the South as much as recently shown with High pressure to the South backing winds towards a milder and less unstable Westerly in the South by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data early in the run but look to have been overwritten on last night's 120hr chart to accomodate a different evolution to cater for a shallow Low over Southern Britain early next week with cloud and rainy weather in cool conditions more likely with less influence of High pressure to the South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a changeable theme next week with rain and showers at times for all. After a cool push of North winds early in the week slightly less cool weather is shown at times thereafter but still unstabe air enough to ensure the continuation of rain and showers at times for most areas, heavy in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows cool and unsettled weather early next week gradually lessening with time as this run too shows winds backing to a milder Westerly later next week with pressure rising slowly to give more in the way of dry if still a little cool weather by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the cold Northerly wind it has shown on previous output too but as with much of the other output it's duration looks shortened somewhat as like UKMO it builds pressure to the South backing winds more Westerly late in the week with a strong ridge crossing East. The end of the run sees Atlantic Low pressure crossing East into the UK with rain at times for all perhaps most likely across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows fairly slack conditions across the UK with various options making up the mean biased towards slightly unsettled weather with Low pressure not far from the UK with some rain at times in average temperatures for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning show a drift away from a prolonged cold spell in favour of more benign conditions later with a little rain at times for all and nearer average temperatures.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 88.6 pts over UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 86.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.1 pts over GFS's 57.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.0 pts over GFS at 41.7.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Today sees the last day of the prolonged settled spell that many parts of England and Wales at least have enjoyed for quite some time. In replacement comes the re-introduction of Low pressure near the British Isles with a mix of sunshine and heavy showers over the weekend and temperatures returning to near average. Then as yesterday we have to look to the North to await cold Northerly winds to flood down over the UK early next week with very chilly air with further showers, wintry on hills. However, this phase looks shorter-lived than on previous output picked up first by UKMO a day or so back and now spreading across other output too. The most likely theme now reflects that after a day or two of cold North winds the airflow backs to a milder Westerly and as the possibility of High pressure building close to the South midweek the most changeable conditions return towards more Northern and Western areas with more in the way of dry weather and average temperatures to the South and East. It does look though that the weather over the UK from all models reflect a more changeable and unsettled theme than of late with the second week 2 offering some rain and showers for all at times with temperatures near to average and occasionally rather cool. It does reflect good growing conditions as the showers mix with occasional sunny spells but despite the shortening duration of the cold Northerly flow next week the risk of night frost remains if skies clear by night for some while yet and that from some output includes Week 2 as well.

Next update from 08:00 Friday April 24th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

All Change With The Weather;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Cooler and wetter next 8-10 days.

Bit of a change of tune on the GFS's part. Okay, it is at the 240 hrs range, thus miles away in forecasting terms and this model is probably "trying" a different approach (an outlier?). This pleases me because it shows the air flow coming in from a tropical source and not in from the Arctic end of the North Sea for a  change! Only drawback is that rainfall may also be a regular feature, along with strong winds over the northern half of the UK . . .



Doubtless it'll look different again in the next run (probably back to showing the unwanted northern blocking set up).

Tonight's ECM pretty much in line with its respective ensemble mean run. Will be interesting to see if the GFS has picked up on something the ECMWF has missed out on so far.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY APRIL 24TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move NE across England and Wales later today with another one moving slowly South over Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled  and changeable with bright spells and showers, heavy and wintry on hills in the North for a time. Local night frosts still possible.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The main flow of the Jet stream over the coming couple of weeks will  be generally to the South of the UK with varying degrees of strength and structure in association with a trough of low pressure close to the UK for a good portion of the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows Low pressure and cool conditions affecting the UK weather for much of the coming couple of weeks with winds generally blowing from a Northerly source with rain or showers at times for all. Later the theme os for pressure to build to the West then North of the UK with the thrust of showers by then focused most On Southern Britain with drier conditions further North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control run is broadly similar to the operational in many respects though after the thrust of cold early next week and the following changeable period pressure eventually rises quite strongly near the UK with a lot of dry weather for many. High pressure then settles over Northern latitudes later and like the operational it then shows the risk of showers across the South as pressure falls to the South of the UK in an easterly flow.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today show the usual mix of options at 2 weeks with the most likely scenario being an Atlantic driven changeable pattern of weather with rain at times especially towards the North and West.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO now looks much more unsettled next week as Low pressure North of Scotland drives our weather with Westerly winds and showers after a cold Northerly to start the week and then at the end of the 6 day period a small but significant Low pressure crosses East over the South of the UK with longer spells of rain in tow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The theme of the Fax charts this morning is to gradually push trough South and East across the UK at the weekend and replace them with a slack and chilly North or NW flow with further showers at times to start next week in much cooler air.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a very unsettled period to come with a brief cold and showery period early next week displaced by wet and windy conditions at times in more average temperatures as we move towards the end of the run as deep Low pressure areas settle close to Northern Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows unsettled conditions next week though soon becoming less cold next week as winds switch from the North or NW to more of a SW flow with the heaviest rainfall across Northern and Western Britain later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a very complex pattern as we move through next week all hinging on lower pressure than has been the case of late with outbreaks of rain or showers at times for all areas in temperatures far from inspiring for much of the time as the flow of air  is for much of the time from a cold source to the North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows many options between individual members indicating Low pressure over or around the UK with outbreaks of rain or showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning show a common theme of Low pressure driven weather with centres close to or over the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 88.4 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 85.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.6 pts over GFS's 58.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.5 pts over GFS at 41.8.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Today sees the commencement of a spell of much more unsettled weather across the UK as fronts move up from the SW and from the North through the next 24 hours. The South will stay quite warm for another ay or so as the SW wind following today's trough is sourced well South in the Atlantic but the front coming down over Scotland has some very chilly air behind it and this will make progress down over all areas late in the weekend perhaps accompanied by a wet day in the South on Sunday. Then after a couple of cold and potentially showery days changeable conditions persist as we move through next week but the very coolest conditions should ease as winds back West or SW at times. However, in comparison to recent times all this will be a shock to the system and a stark reminder that it is still very much Spring, UKMO has now shifted away from it's rise of pressure being significant close to the South next week and instead shows a pattern replicated by other output too that further Low pressure late next week will feed further rainfall across from the West at times. GFS in Week 2 shows pressure rising to the North of the UK with some dry and fine weather by then most likely in the North while the model continues to threaten the South with rain or showers at times in an East flow due to Low pressure to the South. All this of course a long way off but certainly telling the message than fine and warm weather will now be on hold for a week or two with some much needed rain likely for all at times though unfortunately temperatures look generally uninspiring at times over the forecast period but having said that and being that we will be into May any sunshine will feel quite warm in shelter.

Next update from 08:00 Saturday April 25th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

JMA -Friday - Sign's Of An Improvement For Mid May?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ 

A very mixed start to May but better later? Maybe...

Thank you Gavin.. Middle of May Madness will surly be welcome after the next few weeks.

GFS 12z is cold and dear I say it possibly wintry for early May!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY APRIL 25TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move South across the UK slowly today and tomorrow followed by a cold and unstable NNW flow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled  and changeable with bright spells and showers, heavy and wintry on hills in the North for a time. Local night frosts still possible.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST TheSouthern arm of the Jet is strongest at the moment lying near Spain . This extends North to lie across Southern parts of the UK for much of the period undulating North and South at times in association with a Low pressure trough near the UK.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows Low pressure and cool conditions affecting the UK weather for much of the coming week as a Northerly flow establishes tomorrow. then through the week this slowly backs Westerly and a ridge follows across the UK by next weekend. Through week 2 changeable weather returns with rain and showers borne off the Atlantic maintaining the cool theme with rain or showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar pattern to the operational today though it does build High pressure strongly across the UK at the very end of the run with rain and showers dying out then to be replaced by dry and more settled conditions.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today show no clear message this morning with a mix of options offered to lie across the UK in two weeks time, ranging from westerly winds and rain at times from off the Atlantic to dry and fine weather under a ridge over the South or to the West of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a showery cool West or NW flow early this week followed by an active depression moving East across the UK Wednesday with rain for all followed by a more showery and still cool NW flow late in the week as the Low slowly moves away East over Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The theme of the Fax charts this morning is to weaken the Northerly feed of cold air quite quickly in the first half of next week with an active Low pregrammed to move in from the West or SW on Wednesday

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows quite a changeable pattern through the next 10 days as the cold NW flow early in the week is replaced by Low pressure around midweek with rain for all and a ridge at the weekend with a dry and fine interlude for most. the pattern still looks changeable and unsettled with further rain towards the West and SW at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows changeable and showery conditions for the most part but with a more sustained period of rain midweek as a Low moves East. Then a large Low pressure over the Eastern Atlantic drives cloud and rain North and East across the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows an unstable outlook with Low pressure never far from the British Isles over the next 10 days. Showers or rain at times remains the focus of the model with all areas at risk with temperatures no better than average and often rather cool.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a Low pressure belt lying across the Atlantic and the UK maintaining the risk of showers or rain at times 10 days from now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning show a common theme of Low pressure driven weather with centres close to or over the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  ties at 88.4 pts over UKMO also at 88.4 pts and GFS at 86.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.4 pts over GFS's 58.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.0 pts over GFS at 42.0.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The High pressure dominated weather of late has gone for the time being and in it's place we look like moving into an unstable flow with rain or showers and some very cool weather for a time especially across the North early next week when some snow showers are possible on the hills and some unwanted night frosts too more widely. Then as we look to the latter end of the week there is strong support for a new Low to move East across the UK giving all areas a period of more prolonged rain together with strong winds and followed by more cool and showery weather late in the week. By next weekend there is some support from some models that pressure may recover for a time with a dry and brighter interlude across the UK as ridge looks as though it may cross the UK from the West but then in the longer outlook models it looks like any rise in pressure will be shortlived as further Low pressure moves into the UK from the West or SW with further rain and showers at times to end the forecast period. While temperatures never look like being particularly warm with a lot of cool air aloft dictating the changeable nature of the weather sunshine between the showers will feel pleasant enough and coupled with the occasional rainfall will aid the growing process. So in a nutshell a changeable spell of weather to come over the two weeks for all areas with some rain and showers and temperatures near or a little below normal but still with the unwelcome risk of occasional night frosts where skies clear and winds fall light.

Next update from 08:00 Sunday April 26th 2015

Yes and the cooler weather coming here are from the current very cold NE N America like Toronto was only 3.2C 2 days ago which is well below normal and not a good signs for us when the cold air move out and travel over us.  Also never understand the charts sometimes when you see huge HP from Greenland to Azores can mislead you thinking it will guarantee to move over the UK but stupid supposedly exiting LP would reversed backward instead of pushing in to Russia and east Europe.  That the most lethal dangerous pattern that can last up to 2-4 months which effected summers 2007-2012.  Even last year summer we got plagued by this in whole of August with the most boring rain showers every day.   Hope it won't last long and to end asap while we still have good resources of increasing lengthening daylight hours. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY APRIL 26TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and unstable NW flow will move down across remaining Southern areas of Britain and continue for the next 24-48hrs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  and changeable with bright spells and showers or rain, heavy and wintry on hills in the North for a time. Local night frosts still possible.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is engaging a flow further South than currently generally to a point South of the UK where it remains for much of the next two weeks undulating North and South slightly as troughs affect the UK at times.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows Low pressure and cool uppers affecting the UK this week. the cold north flow to begin with backs towards the West early in the week with showers at times. Conditions then become more varied after midweek under slacker pressure but still somewhat chilly weather overall. Through Week 2 things are shown to warm up with time as High pressure builds to the South with a milder SW flow and the rain more concentrated towards the North and West

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar pattern through the first week with the cold and showery pattern early on giving way to more settled conditions late in the week as a ridge moves East. It doesn't last long in the West though as further Low pressure from the Atlantic brings cloud and rain and still cool weather across Southern and Western areas next weekend gradually extending to all areas through Week 2 as the parent Low complex edges East across the UK.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today favour Low pressure being likely to lie to the West or North of the UK in two weeks time with unsettled or changeable conditions and avearge temperatures in a Westerly flow looking the most likely scenario for the British Isles at that point in time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a showery cool Westerly flow midweek slackening off as new Low pressure drifts East to the South of the UK at the end of the week and start to next weekend. Midweek showers will continue in the North but more perisstent rain could threaten the South at the end of the period in conditions remaining generally on the cool side.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The theme of the Fax charts this week shows a cold North flow backing West by midweek and being complicated by further troughs running into Southern areas. Showers in the North will be wintry on hills and the longer spells of rain looks most prolific across Southern areas on Wednesday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a cold and unsettled period the most likely events to witness over the coming 10 days. Early showery and cod NW or West winds die out towards midweek as new Low pressure edges up to the SW of the UK with more prolonged rain across the South and West later. For the rest of the run the UK falls under a Low pressure complex with rain at times and snow on northern hills where it would feel particularly cold and raw in the fresh East or NE flow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows an equally unsettled and rather chilly period with showers in the first half of the week on a Westerly flow giving way to more prolonged rainfall across the West and later to all as Low pressure edges acoss the UK in maintained cool conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning is a little less dramatic with a showery and rather cool Westerly for the first half of the week as Low pressure meanders down across the North and away East later. A weak ridge shows a drier and brighter period soon after midweek replaced by new Low pressure edging up from the SW next weekend with further rain in places. This gradually then is shown to focus more towards the North and West as Low pressure anchors over the Atlantic with somewhat milder air filtering into the SE at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a Low pressure belt lying across the Atlantic and the UK maintaining the risk of showers or rain at times 10 days from now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning show a common theme of Low pressure driven weather with centres close to or over the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  ties at 88.3 pts over UKMO also at 88.3 pts and GFS at 85.8. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.9 pts over GFS's 58.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.5 pts over GFS at 42.8.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS On face value the charts look quite disturbed and cool across the UK for the next two weeks but actually some places could end up with quite a lot of dry weather when all is added up at the end of the period. Having said that some places will have some unseasonably cool weather especially at night with some very unwanted frosts especially early in the period and a few could see some snowfall on the hills of the north through the showery period early this week. The trend is then for pressure to become slack across the UK late in the week with rather less in the way of showers after the risk passes of a period of more prolonged rainfall midweek for some areas. Then as we look towards the second week it looks very much from all models that conditions will remain on the chilly side of average especially in the North where it looks increasingly likely from some output that a cold Easterly feed could develop. By then more prolonged rainfall could be focused on the South but there are exceptions to this rule such as shown by ECM that the North and West could become more at risk of the wettest conditions while the SE warms up a fraction closest to higher pressure over Europe. Whatever the outcome true Spring warmth and sunny skies are on hold for a while and the main message for gardeners and growers is the continuing risk of night frosts particularly over the coming couple of nights and possibly again under any clearer interludes at anytime through the period while occasional rain will quench the gardens and fields for many.

Next update from 08:00 Monday April 27th 2015

I don't think we should regard your outlook for overnight frosts as unusual for the end of April. The apple blossom is just coming out, and from when we lived in Kent 20-30 years ago, I remember out acquaintances among the local fruit farmers being much disturbed and often with crops damaged perhaps one year in three. A nerve-racking time for them and thier successors today

So here we are again.

We look to this new week and today Sunday that we can get Cool and Chilly-Cold NW flow, in late April, with NW Mid West N Atlantic Polar STJ Arm with Low Pressure, A Blocking Large Greenland High and Iceland to UK Arctic PFJ Low Pressure which is capable for bringing some Cold rain and Mountain/Hill Sleet hail and Snow showers particularly Scotland Central N UK and N to NE Ireland as well.

Northern Arm of of Polar Frontal Low's Locating righ over UK and N Europe Iceland with Connected Cold High Pressure systems Central Arctic Greenland and their ridge extends to our distant West over the Central N. Atlantic.

This looks like lasting for whole of approaching week and also the following weekend.

The GFS led the UKMO and then quickly matches it's forecast

UKMO, ECMWF then GFS often agreed for this pattern change. 

If only it was November-December 2008-09 & 2009-10 all over again. NAD S H U T D O W N<>.

Rant on or Roll on February Temperatures.

Something I've noticed on recent GFS op runs is that while the blocking is very persistent, it's not rooted to the spot - it gradually drifts toward the pole between days 3 and 6, before sitting down again having effectively reconfigured the Atlantic-Europe setup; the UK low drifts to Scandi and the Atlantic low drifts to between the Azores and the UK.

It's then that things get a bit funky, as the westerly momentum in the Atlantic drops away and new trough development in the western North Atlantic attempts to merge with the one just west of the UK, the new single trough complex ending up a bit further west with heights rising across Europe and to a lesser extent the UK.

That's been the path taken by several GFS op runs in a row now, and the ECM 00z displayed similar behaviour despite having stronger westerly momentum between days 3 and 8. There have also been suggestions from CFS and JMA that the second half of May could be relatively settled and warm - so it all seems to fit together quite nicely.

As always, all this is just so many words if they're leading us up the garden path... more runs needed 

So what does that mean in effect.

Not that its really all that relevant but i was just comparing the charts on Wetterzentrale from early may 2003 and i have to say they have an uncanny similarity to what the ECM has put out this evening.  

Northern blocking over Greenland with a succession of lows from the Atlantic over us.. only problem is back then the Med was basking under high pressure.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY APRIL 27TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and unstable Westerly flow will blow across the UK tonight and tomorrow with a trough of Low pressure moving East later tonight and clearing East tonight..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled and changeable with bright spells and showers or rain, heavy and wintry on hills in the North. Local night frosts still possible.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is focused to blow on a much more Southerly track than usual for the entire period not ideal for conditions over the UK all in association with Low pressure near or over the UK through the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows rather chilly and showery conditions in rather cold uppers across the British Isles in the coming week. A few longer spells of rain are likely too especially on Wednesday as a trough spills East. Then through Week 2 although some moderation of the chill in the SE fis likely for a time conditions remain very changeable with rain and showers at times as further Low pressure moves NE or East across the UK from the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar to the operational in substance through the period though it does suggest somewhat less cold weather in the second week with more of a Southerly aspect to the airflow at times though it is equally changeable in pattern with rain at times for all.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a 65%/35% split in favour of Low pressure expected to lie to the West and SW of Britain in two weeks time with the wettest and most unsettled conditions likely over the South and West while the other 35% reverse the theme with Low pressure to the NE and High over the Atlantic with the most unsettled weather in the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure sitting out to the West of the UK by the weekend following a chilly and showery week for many as Low pressure moves East over the North. With time and by the end of the run the resultant Southerly winds though still disturbed will deliver slightly less chilly air to the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The theme of the Fax charts this week shows a widening of isobars as we move into next weekend following the cool and unsettled week with showers and more prolonged rain on Wednesday in strong winds. By the weekend the flow across Britain will be slack and still rather cold with troughs threatening the South and SW while the North stays drier with scattered showers.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning looks very changeable and often rather cold over the next 10 days when apart from a brief drier slot towards the weekend all areas are at risk of cold showery weather with occasional longer spells of rain too as new Low pressure trundles across the UK on occasion from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Low pressure migrating slowly to the NE of the UK this week with continued chilly and showery weather with the caveat of a longer spell of windy and wet weather likely on Wednesday. Then at the weekend while Northern and Eastern areas become dry but still chilly the South and West look like becoming cloudy and rainy again as troughs move up from the SW in a strengthening SE breeze.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning looks unseasonably chilly in it's 00z run as Low pressure remains positioned such that cold polar air remains the dominant feature across the UK and with pressure generally quite Low the message remains one of sunshine and showers and occasional longer spells of rain over the 10 days with some snow on northern hills and frost where skies clear at night and winds fall light.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows Low pressure likely to be lying across the UK at the 10 day point stretching from the Eastern Atlantic to much of Northern Europe with a heady mix of rain at times, some bright intervals and temperatures average at the very best.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning show a common theme of rather cold uppers lying across much of Britain through the vast majority of the runs today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.4 over UKMO's 88.3 pts with GFS at 85.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.8 pts over GFS's 59.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.1 pts over GFS at 42.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Not much sign of Summer in this morning's set of output with the most dominating feature being the chilly uppers aloft and then translating down to the surface away from the SE for many being the most notable feature in the next two weeks. In addition with the air unstable and pressure relatively low at times rain or showers are also shown across the board with only limited periods of rather drier and brighter conditions most likely towards the early part of the Bank Holiday Weekend. The air will continue cold enough at times to see some wintry conditions over the higher ground of the North and anywhere where skies clear at night and winds fall light the risk of quite sharp frosts locally is a real possibility at anytime through the period but of course most likely in the North. With regard to rainfall amounts in general I don't thing there will be any noteworthy amounts of rain with the weather more showery in nature than sustained trough related. Nevertheless where and when it falls it will accentuate the cold feel and hold temperatures generally short of average for much of the time. So why has this happened and how long will it last? Well our warm anticyclone of last week with it's warm uppers has been replaced by Low pressure positioned such that it is dragging cold polar air South across the UK from the West and North and as long as pressure remains higher than lately over the Arctic and the Jet Stream remains positioned South of the UK which it is forecast to do for the forseeable future then cool conditions look like persisting with rain or showers for all at times as Low pressure areas come in on more Southerly latitudes than usual. Of course being May when the sun comes out it will compensate for the cold air and make things very pleasant but on the cloudier days it will feel distinctly chilly. The Bank Holiday Weekend looks like it could be best towards the North and East as troughs of Low pressure to the SW could run into the South and West of England and Wales with some rain but it doesn't look likely to be particularly warm anywhere but useable for many in the North and East. So all in all chilly and changeable are the best terms to use for the UK weather as I see it in the coming few weeks with still some frost at night on occasion.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday April 28th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 28TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and unstable Westerly flow will blow across the UK today. Tonight and tomorrow will see a trough of Low pressure crossing East across Britain tonight and at first tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled and changeable with bright spells and showers or rain, heavy and wintry on hills in the North at first. Becoming less cold and possibly drier later especially towards the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is focused to blow on a much more Southerly track than usual for the vast majority of the run before slowly returning North across the UK at the end of the period

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows the rather cold conditions remaining in place this week with a mix of sunshine and showers. A ridge crossing East towards the weekend could give rise to a sharp frost on Friday night before troughs moving slowly up from the SW over the Bank Holiday weekend should introduce milder air into the South which through the remainder of the run gradually extends to many other areas with time. The changeable conditions will likely continue with a slow inprovement in conditions from the South as pressure builds and the end of the period looks fine and settled on this morning's run with sunny spells and temperatures above average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run ends up in the same place with regard to fine and settled weather two weeks from now with the passage of time getting there showing a mix of changeable conditions with rain at times for all gradually being replaced by less unsettled and less cool conditions towards the end of the second week though the time this run takes to get to the High pressure area is rather more traumatic and hindered..

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a 60%/40% split in favour of High pressure lying somewhere over or close to the UK in two weeks time with fine and dry conditions dominant. This is a turnaround from yesterday morning and with only 40% of members showing the chance of Low pressure over the UK in two weeks time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure sitting out to the West of the UK by the end of the Bank Holiday weekend with a marked trough across Central Britain. Southern areas could become somewhat less cold as winds switch SW while the North stays cold and raw at times in an East wind with all areas seeing outbreaks of rain and showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The theme of the Fax charts this week shows a widening of isobars as we move towards the weekend with the cold and showery Westerly breeze dying down as a weak ridge crosses East on Friday. The Weekend is shown to be more unsettled from the SW as milder Atlantic winds behind active troughs move slowly NE across Southern and Western parts by Sunday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning looks mostly quite changeable through the 10 day spell quite closely following the UKMO theme of events. So a cold and showery period for the next few days dies away in preference to steadily less chilly conditions and Southerly winds moving North across the UK early next week but with the weather remaining quite changeable with rain at times in association with Low pressure close by to the West or over the UK towards the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a similar theme as the majority of the rest of the ouput with a change from cool and showery West or NW winds to milder South or SE winds by early next week, the milder air following a trough North across the UK at the weekend with next week continuing to see some unsettled weather at times with rain in places at times and temperatures nearer to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the main theme of the period as becoming less cold next week and though still rather unsettled with Low pressure to the West and NW for much of the time some dry and brighter intervals will increasingly develop as pressue gently rises from the South later with temperatures closer to average. Having said all that Low pressure is shown to deepen to the SE at Day 10 thwarting any lengthy improvent here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night loosely follows it's operational route in gradually shifting the emhasis of Low pressure out into the Atlantic with pressure rising gently to the SE bringing milder winds up from the South later in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning show a slow transition towards less chilly conditions as winds source from a point SW or South of the UK rather than from a polar or Arctic source with this Bank Holiday weekend the pivotal point.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.4 over UKMO's 88.1 pts with GFS at 85.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.8 pts over GFS's 59.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.9 pts over GFS at 43.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The chilly and unsettled weather introduced at the weekend has some time to run before something rather less chilly but still changeable arrives by the start of next week. The showery theme currently upheld for most will be aggravated by a trough of Low pressure sinking SE across the UK tonight with rain and squally winds followed by a further few days of chilly and potentially showery conditions especially on Thursday. A ridge of High pressure could give rise to another unwanted frost over Friday night but the SW may escape as thick cloud and rain moves gently NE across these areas at the weekend, gradually extending North. Ahead of the troughs the weather will still be chilly but milder air will be introduced across the South and this looks like extending North to all areas next week. With Low pressure the driving force most likely positioned to the West or NW of Britain all areas remain at risk from rain at times next week before a gentle rise of pressure from the South or SE looks like drying things up and warming things up further in the second week. There are some variations between outputs on how this pattern evolves but there is some common ground that the UK will lie under much drier and warmer weather in two weeks time with a strong chance that High pressure will being a period of fine and bright weather with temperatures near to or above average and we may finally then lose the chance of any damaging night frosts. So all in all not all bad news this morning as the current chilly and still in places wintry feeling air mass we have experienced this week and in the next few days will be hopefully this Winter seasons last hurrah and we can settle into something much more May like with time.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 29th 2015