Just hope this isn't a repeat of 2007 that's all.

No, its just payback for the nice weather we're had that's all.

For others it was probably different but for me I don't recall 2007 being all that bad, especially with hindsight of the summers that followed. 

I remember it being a very warm and humid summer with more spells of wetter weather then we had been used to over the few years that had preceded it. What I remember being annoyed most with 2007 was it was the first summer we had failed to reach 30C for quite a few years.

Obviously I am aware that there was some serious flooding for some. 

Personally i I hope we don't have a summer with such frequencies of wetter weather this year, but a summer with most days being very humid and reaching mid 20's, well I'll take that over anything that we had between 2008-12 

Four months later we were mopping up from the wettest and coldest summer in a generation. That pattern change in April set in for four miserable sodden wet and cold months.

I fear the same happening again this year.

Summer 2007 was NOT warm in Bournemouth. The year high was less than 25c (lowest I have recorded) and we did not exceed 23c for the entire 4 month period centred on the solstice!

The only times we did so was April 14th and again in late August.

2012 broke around 9th April and what followed was pretty exceptional - probably approaching 1976 in terms of its unusual-ness. I'm not expecting a repeat any time soon. Though on recent form after 2 decent summers perhaps we are due a crap one, who knows.

Anyway   thats going a little off topic. What is coming up now is normal fickle spring weather to me.

Thank you Martin for the output.  So wintery week to come.. All the thermals have been washed and put away....

Sorry but I don't agree with you in much of what you say in that post especially considering the one difference with regard to Spring snow in April it often falls from showery situations under a polar Northerly from clouds which tower up to higher elevations now than would of been the case in Winter. This can add to the potential for snow from these tall clouds make it all the way down to the ground even with temperatures of double figures given shelter and away from the showers themselves and with regard to frost if the charts verify as shown on the 00z I would be very surprised that notorious frost hollows don't experience some damaging air frosts at some point overnight next week and slighter frosts elsewhere if skies clear and winds fall light.

So as like I said a chance of something Wintery on the back edge of some showers away from the warmer sheltered areas. But with an explanation of how things work, most appreciated... alway 

No disrespect meant here Gibby but I'm unsure what point you trying to make to me about the frost, I was very clearly talking about my own area with that regards. I'm very much aware rural areas and frost hollows can get cold enough for a frost, even in the south during late April to early May.  

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Big Changes For The Weekend And Next Week;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Make the most of sun and warmth next 2-3 days...

Apologies re the frost. Always the danger of misreading posts in a National forum and because I report on a National broad brush treatment I forget the imby of some posts.

Towering, deep clouds do indeed produce snow to low levels when the upper air is very cold even in early May

It happened here back in May 1997.

The charts I'm seeing at the moment remind me a bit of April & May 1995; a warm and dry spell followed by something more unsettled and considerably cooler as well. In 2007, when the weather first broke in early May, I don't recall there being many if any northerly blasts, which happened on a few occasions in the spring of 1995.

We'll be hellishly unlucky IMO to get another summer like 2007 or 2012 again anytime soon.

So people fear a bad summer if April is warm and sunny throughout i.e 2007 and 2011, but people also fear a bad summer if nice weather in April is replaced by unsettled weather? Is there any kind of weather in April that DOESN'T predict a terrible summer?

April 2012 was a rotten month through and through - I am not aware of any perfect weather, let alone the first few weeks. The highest temperature here that month was 17C, and that only occurred on the very last day.

Does anyone actually believe in or use pattern matching? I've never seen a shred of evidence it's remotely accurate. There are countless variables that can and will make big differences further down the line. I doubt two days have ever been identical globally,synoptically, ever. 

Butterfly effect. 

Thank You Martin for your output.. Like the word snowfall.

Just read it on your website...

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 22ND 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will slowly decline across Northern Britain tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and rather cold with bright spells and showers, heavy and wintry on hills. Local night frosts still likely.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Northern arm of the jet continues to weaken, the axis of which slips slowy South across the UK over the weekend. The Southern arm over Spain and Portugal strengthens and amalgamates with the remains of the Northern arm and blows generally West to East in a position to the South of the UK later in the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure declining over the coming days with Low pressure edging up from the SW deepening as it does and centreing to the NE of Britain bringing rain or showers this weekend. Then by early next week a cold and showery NW flow takes control for much of the week before a ridge crossing East brings a dry if chilly spell towards next weekend ahead of a return to wind and rain at times at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control run is very similar with no return to the current fine and warm weather once it's replaced by unsettled and often rather chilly conditions from this weekend until the end of the period. It too shows a short drier interlude in the middle of the period as something of a ridge crosses over from the West.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today have firmed up somewhat on changeable and unsettled weather across the UK two weeks from now with rain at times and with winds from between SW and NW. Only 15% of members this morning show High pressure instead lying over the UK in two weeks time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure declining and being replaced by cyclonic conditions at the weekend with outbreaks of rain or heavy showers for all in cooler conditions overall as Low pressure settles to the North and NE of Britain early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a concoction of troughs under falling pressure moving slowly NE then SE across the UK over the weekend and start to next week as High pressure dissolves away over Friday. Mild SW winds at the beginning of the weekend will be replaced by colder North or NW winds early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a very chilly week next week as the weekend of transition sees the current fine and pleasant conditions replaced by rain and showers from Friday. The showers could turn wintry over the hills next week as winds threaten to turn into a cyclonic NE'ly later across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows colder air moving down from the NW at the weekend with sunshine and showers likely for most of next week for all areas but with some continuing bright or sunny intervals at times especially over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning keeps cold and unsettled weather going through next week once established with a source of air well North of the UK fuelling sunshine and showers, wintry on hills especially but not exclusively over the North. Through the week and on this morning's run some longer spells of rain could occur especially across the South at times and if things evolve as shown the Low in the channel on the 30th could even produce a little snow on it's Northern flank as it crosses East into Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night maintains the unsettled look to things with a daisy chain of Low pressure from across the Atlantic through the British Isles and East into Europe with rain at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning remain focused towards colder and more unsettled weather across the British Isles lasting for quite some time.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 88.9 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 85.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.5 pts over GFS's 57.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.8 pts over GFS at 40.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS We are growing ever closer to a change in the weather pattern across the UK as High pressure which has ruled events over the UK for the last few weeks becomes a thing of the past as Low pressure moving up from the SW amalgamates with troughs moving SE from the NW to form a complex Low pressure area just to the North and NE of the UK for much of next week. First changes will be felt on Friday as cloud and some showers move NE across the UK over the weekend. At this stage temperatures will remain respectable in the light SW flow but by Sunday over the North and all areas next week cold NW winds will flood down across the UK from an air source within the Arctic bringing a mix of sunshine and strong convective showers each day with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible for many. If winds fall light at night and as daytime showers die out some unwelcome frosts look likely for gardeners and growers to be wary of. Complications could also come from small depressions or troughs enhancing showers to longer spells of rain in places at times and though nearly May the ECM small disturbance shown for around the 30th could produce some leading and back edge snowfall as it runs into the cold air across the UK. This of course cannot be taken as anything other than potential at the moment and will most likely be removed from subsequent runs so don't take this as gospel at the moment. Then looking further out still we have to ask ourselves how long will this rather cold and unsettled period last? Well looking at Northern hemispheric pressure patterns for the next few weeks and a little longer with pressure becoming High over Greenland and the Arctic the cold northerly bias to the winds in our part of Europe could well last into May with further bands of rain and showers affecting all areas at times but being May I'm sure that some compensatory warm sunny spells between the showers will offset the overall feel of some days but I cannot rule out the risk of frost at anytime yet for the next few weeks at least.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday April 23rd 2015

I haven't looked at the models for some time. Having seen these I wish I had got the last bit of outdoor painting finished last weekend, because I ain't going to be doing it this weekend!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1024.gif

I think the skeptics in here should bear in mind that snow in April is not unusual, indeed it is unusual not to get 2-3 days of snow falling for Northern England in April. Of course getting it in the last week is far less common, but what is really interesting here is the length of the cold spell, it could even last a week. A week of sub -3 uppers would produce extremely low average CETs for the time of year. Also we need to watch out for some ice days as there are some near perfect conditions for late spring ice days (although getting one will be still unbelievably difficult) with cold air and slow moving fronts. 

GFS 6z suddenly has a cold and drier idea for later next week, with a scandinavian high to follow.
That would be rather nice if we get a few mm on Sunday at least.

Nope, no more than saying that any type of weather in April, or saying that there is no connection between April's weather and a bad Summer, suggests that a good Summer lies ahead. Having said that, it is easy to see why some people would be concerned about good spells of weather at this time of year given recent trends. For me, April 2007 and, to a even greater extent, May 2008 were both incredible months with prolonged warmth and sunshine - along with much higher than normal msl values, and both were followed by infamous Summers. Of course, while there may be a little correlation there, there is probably nothing in the way of actual causation. But I do wonder if particularly long spells of Anticyclonic weather (at any time of year, not just Spring) are in turn followed by somewhat longer than usual cyclonic spells? 

We had snow here one morning in mid-May 1995, and only a week before that we had temperatures approaching the mid-20s celsius. Other than that, mid-April is the latest that I can recall seeing snow in my area in any one spring season.