Cheers as ever, Gibby 

Looks like a chance of settling down as we move further into May. All in all, it's not been a bad spring IMBY.

This lowering of heights to our northwest and increase in heights over Europe has been signaled by the likes of CFS for a while now... same as how the opposite trend for late April was picked up well in advance.

Either the atmosphere is in an unusually predictable state, or the long range models have suddenly woken up and smelled the coffee...!

Anyway, there will be some complications to sort out regarding the details - how cleanly does low pressure vacate from Europe (currently very cleanly from GFS and not at all from ECM!), and does the Atlantic trough attempt to deliver a payload from the northwest before the Azores High has a chance to become a dominant player (linked to the ECM-style outcome).

In short, GFS is a lot more promising than ECM this morning as far as the operational output goes. We could do without the extra disturbance west of Iberia on day 8 that ECM conjures up; that's what gets in the way of the would-be Euro High.

Even with these uncertain details, the overall signal is strongly in favour of temperatures rising - though with some bumps in the road likely - toward and then above average during the first 10-14 days of May. It's the rainfall that inspires a lot of question marks.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 29TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will clear SE England this afternoon with a Low pressure area over Scotland drifting East into the North Sea tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  and changeable with bright spells and showers or rain, heavy and wintry on hills in the North at first. Becoming less cold and possibly drier later especially towards the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is focused to blow on a much more Southerly track especially over the Atlantic and while well South of Britain too for a time it shows signs of moving North across Britain later as pressure rises over Europe.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a very changeable period over the coming two weeks. The cold feeling weather at present will move away North behind a front moving North across the weekend and then the UK settles into a changeable pattern with all areas seeing at least a little rain at times under various mostly shallow Low pressure areas crossing the UK. The focus of most of it moving towards the North and West nearest to lowest pressure at times with some longer drier spells become established especially in Week 2 across more Southern and Eastern areas closest to higher pressure as it moves in at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very different in general terms as it makes much more of an unsettled first week with rain and strong winds at times as a deep Low positions just North of the UK while week 2 shows High pressure establishing across the UK with fine and dry weather for many. While it will feel cool in Week 1 under wind and rain Week 2 should be warmer with more in the way of sunshine.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a lot of High pressure influence across the UK in two weeks time but the positioning of such being very unclear with the main focus of it being across the UK in the shape of a ridge from the SW, West or NE.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the main message of the weather becoming rather warmer next week under a SW flow. Low pressure to the NW will ensure some rain falls at times for many with the North and West seeing the most but the South and East not entirely immune too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a battleground scenario developing from the start of the weekend as a cool ridge establishing from the North over the coming days only slowly gives ground to milder SW winds behind a series of occluded fronts edging very slowly North across the UK over the holiday weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows quite changeable conditions across the UK over the coming 10 days. After a chilly start to the period Low pressure troughs and Low pressure itself moves North across the UK and introduces milder air which then persists through next week fuelled by a deep Low in the Atlantic for a time with Southerly winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows troughs to the SW moving slowly North at the weekend though it is shown to need several attempts before succeeding towards the end of the weekend leaving next week with rain at times associated with Low pressure drifting North to the West and slowly introducing less cold air on a SW flow to England and Wales at least later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning also shows unsettled weather through next week as Low pressure remains influential to the West of the UK. It should slowly become less cool especially in the South and there are signs of High pressure building across the UK towards the end of the run pushing the unsettled weather away to the NW by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows the Jet Stream likely to be back to the NW of the UK allowing higher pressure to the SE to restrict more unsettled weather towards the North and West of the UK with slow improvements to the South and East with generally less cool weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is very little trend shown this morning between output with all models showing their own interpretation of fairly benign synoptics towards the end of the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.4 over UKMO's 88.0 pts with GFS at 85.4. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.6 pts over GFS's 58.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 45.1 pts over GFS at 43.5.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS In the longer term this morning there appears to be no clear signals with a variety of options and synoptics on offer across the UK in the 10-14 days time block. In the short term although rather clearer signals are shown the devil will be in the detail and timing as the current cool and showery theme gives way to a ridge from the North on Friday. At the same time Low pressure down to the SW will be attemping to push occluded troughs North across the UK and introduce milder SW winds behind. It's progress looks slow and erratic and it may be early next week before the front reaches Northern Scotland. By that time the milder SW winds will have reached most other areas but with Low pressure likely to lie either to the West or NW further rain and showers at times look likely though SE areas may become rather drier late next week as pressure rises over Europe, a part of the theme that shapes the latter frames of the output runs this morning. The one common theme looks to be the rise of pressure across the UK most pronounced within the GFS Control run while the operational and clusters show improvements more marginal and then GEM and ECM showing their own versions of this theme at Day 10. So with no definitive clear decision of where High pressure will likely lie it makes it hard to pin down any detail on what type of better weather such a High might bring and where. However there is plenty of time for the models to sort that dilemma out and in the meantime we'll concentrate on the changeable pattern of the next week where most places will see some rain at times and things should slowly warm up too but it might take some while for warmer air to reach the far North and NE.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday April 30th 2015

Thank you Martin for the output.  Precipitation  is welcome the first week.   Warmer 2nd week is helpful  for the  Gardeners and farmers.

Yes Nick, although just in the low resolution at the mo, GFS suggests it could turn quite thundery during the second week of May.

The highs to the south need to be a little plumper IMHO. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY APRIL 30TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will develop across the UK today and tomorrow with weak troughs edging into the English channel from the SSW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  at first with rain or showers. Becoming drier and warmer, at least for a time later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently blowing East over France. In the coming days the Western end of the flow will dip further South still to set up a SW to NE flow from Spain to France to Europe where it is maintained for some time. Later in the run the flow realigns across the Atlantic to a more direct West to East flow still further South than is ideal for the UK in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning continues to show a very changeable period over the coming two weeks. The cold feeling weather at present will move away North behind a front moving North across the weekend and then the UK settles into a changeable pattern with all areas seeing at least a little rain at times under various mostly shallow Low pressure areas crossing the UK from the West. High pressure does feature through the middle of the run moving up from the SW giving several days of fine and settled weather before unsettled conditions return from the West again later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is broadly similar with the changeable pattern with the same rise of pressure shown through the middle of the run. Temperatures will be average or somewhat below at times under the cloudier and rainier periods with the emphasis on the drier air focusing perhaps on the North late in the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a 60/40 split in preference towards drier and settled conditions under High pressure near the South or across the UK at Day 10 while 40% show a more changeable period with rain or showers.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure deepening and moving North to the West of the UK over the long weekend with fronts moving North over all areas giving rain and followed by a blustery but less cool West or SW flow with heavy showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data well with the ridge at the start of the period declining in the wake of Low pressure and fronts moving up from the South through the weekend and leaving a legacy of less cold and very unstable air at the start of next week..

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows the same Low pressure and sequence of events that UKMO shows with Low pressure near NW Britain at the start of next week with very showery air over the UK. High pressure then builds from the South later next week with pressure becoming slack across the UK with just intermittent outbreaks of rain here and there by then from shallow Low pressure towards the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure to the NW in control too at the start of next week with a slow filling of the Low and a slow rise of pressure from the South though some showers on this run will last through to the end of the run 1 week from now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of Low pressure to move North just to the West of the UK taking it's troughs North over the UK over the weekend and following behind will be a showery Westerly or SW flow in milder air. This run is in no hurry to rise pressure from the South but it does eventually settting up much warmer and settled conditions across Southern Britain in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a strong ridge lying North across the UK with fine and warm conditions likely to have developed for many by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a better trend towards High pressure building from the South later next week and lasting into Week 2.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.7 pts and GFS at 96.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.4 over UKMO's 87.7 pts with GFS at 84.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 59.9 pts over GFS's 57.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 43.8 pts over GFS at 41.9.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models have firmed up on the likely course of events across the UK over the coming 10 days or so with just the usual divergence between the longer term output arising then for the end of the period. The current cool air across the UK and scattered showers will decay away later today as pressure builds from the North with a likely frost for many tonight. Weak troughs to the South will graze Southern England tomorrow before receding away South for a time giving a cloudier day tomorrow perhaps with a splash of rain here and there while the North stays dry and fine. Then over Saturday a more meaningful push North of troughs to the South coupled with a deepening low to the SW will move North as a complex structure with cool and rainy weather moving North across England and Wales on Saturday and Sunday and Scotland by Monday. Following on behind will be a switch of winds to the SW or West with milder air delivering heavy showers and some warm sunshine in places. Then as we move through next week the focus of showers will become more and more restricted to NW areas as the Low fills and pressure rises from the South. By next weekend it looks like High pressure will be getting a stranglehold on conditions across England and Wales and possibly Scotland too with the following week looking set fair and possibly warm for many with the usual caveats of Low pressure spoiling the party from some of the longer term output members. So all in all a period of changeable weather to come with temperatures on the rise next week with a mix of sunshine and showers following rain. Then at least if the ECM model is to be believed things could begin to turn quite summery in a week or so time with the other models showing a weaker form of a more settled theme at least for a time.

Next update from 08:00 Friday May 1st 2015

Thanks for the update.  Looks mixed for the BH, but improving afterwards.

Thank you martin.. Relations coming from Eindhoven 2n week so may be ok for them.   

Lol, some people were writing May off a few days ago  Admittedly not so many on here as other lesser outlets 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 1ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will persist across Northern and Eastern Britain with a strengthening cool and strong Easterly flow across the SW with troughs further down to the SW edging NE later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  at first with rain or showers. Perhaps becoming drier and warmer, at least for a time later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently blowing East over Southern England and France. In the coming days the Western end of the flow will dip further South still to set up a SW to NE flow from Spain to France to Europe where it is maintained for some time. Later in the run the flow realigns somewhat further North across the Atlantic to flow East across the UK later in the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows Low pressure and troughs moving North over and to the west of the UK over the coming days. Spells of rain followed by more showery weather will occur between now and the start of next week. Further troughs move in before midweek before a NW/SE split sets up with warmer drier weather over the South and East while the North and West see stronger SW winds with further rain at times. Then later in the run changeable conditions persist with alternating periods of fine and bright conditions with cloudier wetter ones for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is equally changeable this morning with a similar rise in pressure to the SE for a time later next week with some fine and bright and warmer weather likely across the South and East at least for a time before Week 2 is shown to be largely Low pressure governed with some cool and wet weather likely for all at times in fresh breezes.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a 70/30 split in preference towards drier and settled conditions under a High pressure ridge near the South at Day 10 while 30% show a more changeable period with rain or showers under a trough of Atlantic Low pressure to the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows quite disturbed conditions across the UK with the slow progress North of complex Low pressure edging North over and to the West of Britain with sunshine and showers or longer spells of rain through the working days of next week in temperatures close to average offset by the Westerly breeze later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the Low pressure and trough complex moving North across the UK over the long weekend and the Fax Charts have now picked up on a new Low pressure area developing over Western France on Monday pushing further rain up across Southern Britain early next week

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows slow improvements likely from the South later next week. Until then though a lot of rather cloudy and at times wet conditions look likely for many as a complex Low pressure area moves slowly North through the weekend and again at the start of next week before a ridge moves in from the SE next weekend with warmer and brighter weather at least for a time and more especially in the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure moving slowly North just to the West of the UK next week maintaining unsettled and showery conditions for many until the end of the week when pressure becomes slack across the UK fuelled by shallow disturbance moving up from the SW with further showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning maintains it's stance of recent runs with Low pressure being influential for much of next week before High pressure builds strongly across the UK with a lot of warmer air entrained by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a strong ridge lying across the UK with fine and warm conditions likely to have developed for many by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have reduced the longer term influence of High pressure in Week 2 of the period bar ECM who maintains it's stance of recent runs.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.7 pts and GFS at 96.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.4 over UKMO's 87.7 pts with GFS at 84.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 59.9 pts over GFS's 57.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 43.8 pts over GFS at 41.9.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Today's output has changed on two themes which were not apparent yesterday. Firstly the pattern of the coming days remain unchanged with troughs moving NE across the UK over the weekend introducing rather warmer air with a mix of sunshine and showers following. Then the first change becomes a much more enhanced detail which will influence the weather next week as a new Low looks like developing over Western France on Monday becoming absorbed in the main Low complex to the west of the UK and delaying improvements next week as a more sustained Westerly feed establishes ahead of rising pressure eventually from the South late next week. This then leads me on to the second change this morning which away from the ECM output this morning show much less extent of higher pressure affecting anywhere other than the South and East of England next weekend and beyond before renewed Low pressure moves back in from the Atlantic across the UK through Week 2. ECM though continues to fly the flag for some fine and summery conditions developing across most parts of the UK from next weekend as High pressure is shown to sit across the UK by Day 10. Which is right is hard to call with all models offering some credibility but I'm hoping that the GFS is just overdoing the return of Low pressure in Week 2 and will redress the balance towards High pressure over up and coming runs. The Jet stream forecast from GFS is shown to remain quite well South though but ECM has it well away to the NW by Day 10 and I hope it's right as it flies a lonely flag in the 'sustained' fine weather camp this morning. Whichever way the dice falls it does look as though the risk of night frosts should gradually subside as we move deeper into the month as the cold uppers of late retreat slowly away back towards the Arctic.

Next update from 08:00 Saturday May 2nd 2015

Thank you for the output Martin.... Just need settled and dry from 15th- 21st of the month.

Looks like being very wet in places before that happens.

Useful for the gardens though.

Little in the way of agreement between the models regarding Monday; UKMO appears lined up to bring the rain through during the afternoon, yet GFS still has it coming through in the middle of the night.

UKMO's version then seems to prevent the Atlantic trough from deepening and lifting north much, which means it takes more than a day longer to clear away and allow high pressure to bring dry conditions and rising temperatures... hopefully the model is just being a bit of a d**k.

ECM is a long way closer to GFS than UKMO with regards to Monday's low and the way the combined trough behaves thereafter, as is GEM, which calms the nerves for now at least 

In fact, with the western Atlantic trough also considerably different (further west, allowing a mid-Atlantic ridge) on the UKMO run than offered by any other op run, I'm wondering if the model is a bit under the weather, so to speak...?

Anyway, the current consensus outlook for conditions by Thursday is along the lines of this from ECM:

The UK trough is lifting slowly but surely out to the north while also decaying, and a ridge is building across NW Europe as low pressure in the Atlantic sets up in the vicinity of the Azores (there's that possible SST-driven behaviour again).

Conditions have dried up across the south but the air is still a bit fresh so temperatures struggling to get beyond average by day and probably falling a bit below by night with the risk of a ground frost in places.

Going forward, there's been a lot of cross-model agreement for that Azores trough complex to stick around W and/or SW of the UK, allowing the Euro Ridge to build into a notable feature that brings a run of notably warm days to the UK - temperatures climbing into the 20's by day and holding up in the 6-10*C range overnight.

If we make it to that stage, the big question looks to be whether reinforcements in the form of ridges from the Atlantic act to recycle the pattern or pull the ridge further west with fresher conditions taking over. That'll be something to think about more if and when we get the major Euro Ridge in place - hopefully by next weekend.

Time has defeated me today I'm afraid so my regular readers can view my report on my website only today I'm afraid at the below link.

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

No worries Martin, you know how much we appreciate what you produce each day 

Essentially I'm seeing more of the same major disagreement from yesterday evening:

ECM continues with the more amplified pattern this morning, the ridge reaching further north and taking longer to head east, resulting in a delay to the arrival of warm air. An improvement from yesterday's super-amplified run and looks quite realistic to me.

Countering this, GFS has a more active jet stream firing the Atlantic lows NE, high pressure is held down across Europe with the UK seeing a lot of relatively warm air but also spells of rain.

Take your pick... I'd be happier with ECM but best of all would be something like a blend of 70% ECM and 30% GFS, to allow for the odd spell of rain to keep the gardens watered. Waiter! 

Indeed, May should not be about 6C mid-afternoon like recent days.
Our swallows have departed again for the time being.

Same here Ian. I can relate to that one big time. :-)