April was the first significantly above average month since last November. Can that trend continue into May? Well not for the first week at least. I am short of time at the moment so only a brief post this month.

Please post your May CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Thursday evening (30th). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 May.

May historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

With the exception of 2010 and 2013 every single May since 1997 has been above the 1971-2000 mean.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 11.3C
1981-2010: 11.7C
1995-2014: 11.9C

Here is a chart of the May CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Current model output

The current model output suggests a slightly cool start to the month but with temperatures reverting to something close to the 1971-2000 average by the end of the first week. Even in the first week relatively high minimums may help to hold the CET up.

The Met Office contingency planners forecast suggests temperatures in May will be close to or slightly below average http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/6/A3_plots-temp-MJJ.pdf The signals from the models at present are not strong. A slight preference for low pressure to the north of the UK with increased likelihood of a north-westerly flow at times seems to be the main driver for the Met Office suggesting the possibility of slightly below average temperatures.

Pattern matching (just for fun)
I had a quick look at previous years since 1950 but there was no discernible pattern worth mentioning. The closest match to this year if we look at the month by month temperatures since January is 1960. That year saw a very warm May and June followed a very chilly three months from July to September. But it would be very unwise to make a prediction based on just one historic year.

May CET tracker

Here are the current prediction charts for the first part of May. Slightly below average on the 1971-2000 mean but quite a bit below if you use the 1981-2010 mean. But generally not far off average after the first two days.

11.8°c please.

11.63C

11.9c. _For me please.

12.4C please

12.1 C please.

Another guess...don't we just love the British weather.

12.3C for me please

12.1 please GW

Thinking/hoping it could be a sunny and warm month. 13.05c please

12.3c please

11.9c 

11.76 please

11.0 C, please. A little below normal overall, and probably quite a wet month.

11.7c please.

Better go for it before I leave it too late.

11C

11.5c thanks

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Gary

11.3C for me please