Welcome to the club

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 12TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak front will cross SE over Southern Britain with a showery Westerly flow over the North. A ridge of High pressure will cross the UK from the West tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times especially over the North but spells of dry and fine weather too for all. Generally rather cool.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will move a little further South over the coming days as a Low crosses Southern England. The flow then returns to a West to East flow across the British isles followed by a weakening of the flow later in the run where it's positioning becomes unclear.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows changeable conditions through the two week period again this morning. The Low crossing Southern Britain later this week will be replaced by High pressure to the SW and a West to NW flow across the UK. A lot of dry if rather cloudy weather would accompany this with a lot of dry weather to begin with. However, another surge of cool weather is shown to cross SE over the UK by the middle of next week with High pressure then taking a stranglehold on the UK weather through week 2 with fine and dry weather likely but again not overly warm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very supportive of the theme shown by the operational with the same rather cool weather influential with rainfall restricted to short bursts early in the period and again for a time next week.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters support the raw data runs quite well with good support between the clusters that High pressure is generally though to be likely positioned to the West or SW of the UK in two weeks time carrying cool NW winds down across the UK though amounts of rainfall aren't shown to be great in the vast majority of the members.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure likely to lie down to the SW of the UK early next week with Westerly or NW winds blowing across the UK with any rain mostly found across the North with temperatures overall a little shy of normal values.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the theme of the raw data charts as High pressure builds down to the SW of the UK carrying weak troughs across the UK over the weekend with any appreciable rain up to the NW and a lot of dry weather to the rest of the UK in average temperatures.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure building down to the SW early next week and unlike the other output it holds some influence to the South of the UK throughout the course of the run whereas more Northern areas see increasingly cool and showery weather later next week as Low pressure slides East to the North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure building close to Southern Britain by the beginning of next week with dry and fine weather here. Further North some dry spells are still shown to be interrupted at times by occasional rain from fronts passing East or NE to the North or NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM looks distinctly cool this morning with the cool and changeable theme currently occurring for many likely to last into the weekend when things remain largely dry for many in the South. Then next week High pressure is maintained to the SW and West while Low pressure slides SE over the North Sea and feed very cool and showery air down across all areas with a new surge showing signs of developing at day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure to the SW of the UK still badly positioned for the UK while Low pressure remains locked to the North and NE of Britain with cool air enveloping the UK in NW or West winds and showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends show a deterioration in conditions next week as cool Low pressure is showing a growing trend to feed down from the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKM at 96.2 pts and GFS at 95.4. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.9 over UKMO's 84.8 pts with GFS at 83.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 54.9 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM maintains superiority at 37.7 pts over GFS at 35.3.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The weather patterns shown within the outputs this morning closely resemble the pattern that affected the UK for much of the Winter season with High pressure down to the SW of the UK and Low pressure up to the North and NE with NW or West winds dominant across all areas. Over the next few days a small Low will drift across the South on Thursday with some cool and wet weather likely in the South while the aftermath shows High pressure build to the SW of the UK setting up a Westerly flow across all areas, quite stable for a time before Low pressure drifts down across the North Sea from the NW later next week bringing distinctly chilly winds and showers to many. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see ground frosts at times in shelter and wintry showers on Scottish mountains next week particularly if the ECM operational run verifies. However, in the bright sunshine between the showers in the South it may well feel pleasant enough. Longer term there is not much sign of Summer warmth with temperatures likely to be held to average levels at best and often rather cool. High pressure does look as though it could well become more dominant again later in the period with dry and fine weather dominating but positioned poorly in relation to the UK to ensure meaningful warmth.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday May 13th 2015

"cool weather pattern" - every month's CET this year has been above average and April was significantly above average. 

"new la Nina effect" - could have sworn we're heading for an el nino

Probably a dim question but how representative of the UK whole would the CET be?

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/04/30/sunny-and-dry-april/

April for 'England' was only 0.8C above the long term average according to the metoffice. 

Not very - as this part of England has pretty much been on the cool side all year (bar January). So the CET is not necessarily representative to the whole of England let alone the UK.

Just looking at the stats for Northern Ireland for April on the UK Met ste and it would seem that overall, the mean temperature came in at around + 0.5c (maybe a little above) above normal. Oddly enough, the closest stations in the Republic to the border all came slightly below the long term mean, as did much of the rest away from it. Amazing difference over such a small area.

1981-2010 mean temp anomalies for stations closest to NI in the Republic:

Ballyhaise (Cavan) -0.6c

Malin Hd (Donegal)  -0.8c

Finner Camp (Donegal) -0.1c

Lots of different opinions on how the moderate to strong El Nino event will affect our weather this summer. Some saying colder , some warmer. The Express is going for a severe winter 2015-16  . Anyone here got a reasoned view of how it will affect the Summer in this country?

Isn't that the paper that more often that not goes for a severe winter?

The Express is a big pile of doggy poo. I am not sure there is any correlation between El Nino events and cold winters in NW Europe. They seem to be basing this on the cold winter of 2009 - 2010 which just happened to coincide with an El Nino. The following November, December however were very cold and that occurred during a La Nina, as did the winters of 1978-79, 1962-63 etc (which were more negatively neutral really)

Same crap, it just  hits the fan a little earlier than usual.  Complete Bollox, as someone once said.

Hate to say it but I think they got it from the BBC weather site - report on there (El Nino - what is it?) from Rob fawkes actually states ' there is some evidence it makes a colder winter in Europe more likely'.  BUT as on Gavin's excellent video this morning, 1997 was set up with a Tri pole in the Atlantic in May, lower solar activity and all the pointers to a cold winter but the strong El Nino scuppered that. I think it depends a) where the El Nino is (e.g focused most strongly towards Peru or towards Indonesia) and b) how strong it is.

If it is a very strong one it seems to somehow strengthen the jet - if that pesky warm SST anomaly off the NW coast of the US does not moderate, it could be interesting as that wasn't there during the last strong El Nino.  One major thing for Winter 15/16 is that we have the sunspot cycle which is in our favour for this winter if you believe we are following the previous cycle closely (cycle 12 (?) I think it is?)  - time will tell.

Anyway sorry off topic there - back to MO and GFS a bit of a horror story tonight if you want hot weather, probably the most winter looking chart I have seen for a while. Thankfully only one run and wouldn't take much for the High pressure to be closer with more of a NW wind than northerly one. As usual bank holiday not looking particularly good across the models tonight - more runs needed.

Very interesting, thanks!

PS, thanks CAZ for the CET explanation. I guess it would represent where a high population would live relative to other parts of the UK. Though I would be sceptical that it would also be representative of say the North of England (a place close to my own heart) or Scotland, which probably has a more similar climate to us here in Ireland.

 Every month to date this year has been above CET. 

Agreed.

The Midlands is often the battled ground between warm/humid air to the south and cooler air to the north and west during the summer months.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 13TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a small depression moving across Southern Britain tonight and clearing away to the SE later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some showers at times especially over the North and East but spells of dry and fine weather too for all. Generally rather cool, especially by night.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream axis will move gently North after the next few days across the UK to lie West to East across Scotland at the weekend. Through next week it then eases back South as a UK trough develops gradually becoming broken up and ill defined in both strength and positioning late in the period under a maintained UK trough.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning continues to show changeable and often rather chilly conditions across the UK in the next two weeks. The flow will be from the West innitially with rain at times chiefly across the North with average temperatures for many. Then from next week Low pressure to the NE and building High pressure through the Atlantic makes for a cold Northerly flow over the UK with days of heavy and thundery showers and some jolly chilly nights given the time of year still with the risk of local ground frosts as winds fall light.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run this morning follows a very similar path though the weather does warm up a little late in the period as the cold Northerly drift is cut off by falling pressure over the Atlantic and the return of milder SW winds.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a general theme biased towards High pressure lying just to the West of the UK in a light northerly drift in two weeks time. The minority members are split between High pressure just to the NE or South of the UK with a milder SW flow setting up across the UK, similar in type to that shown by the Control Run.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure likely to lie to the South of the UK at the weekend with Westerly winds and occasional rain to the North. This then spreads South as Low pressure eases down towards the Uk from the North with rain at times for all by midweek next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the theme of the raw data charts well today showing tomorrows wet weather from a complex Low and frontal systems clearing away SE later tomorrow before a new set of troughs cross east Friday night. The pattern simplifies then as High pressure to the South sets up a Westerly flow with occasional rain in the North later in the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a similar trend to GFS next week but the build of High pressure over the Atlantic late in the period is shown closer in towards Western Britain meaning the extent and widespread nature of the showery regime from GFS is more restricted later on this run towards the East of the UK with a lot of dry if rather chilly weather more likely by then especially towards the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a chilly NW flow developing next week as Low pressure slips SE just to the NE of Scotland with a mix of chilly conditions and sunshine with showers in NW winds affecting all areas 1 week from now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM joins the theme shown by the rest of the models with Low pressure easing down over the UK next week with cool and showery weather shown as a result for all moving forward to include a re-run of the pattern late in the period as a new Low slips down from the NW maintaining the showery and cool theme.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure to the SW of the UK still badly positioned for the UK while Low pressure remains locked to the North and NE of Britain with cool air enveloping the UK in NW or West winds and showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends all agree on cool NW winds and occasional showers across the UK for the extended outlook period this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.8 pts followed by UKM at 96.2 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.7 over UKMO's 84.6 pts with GFS at 83.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 54.1 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM maintains superiority at 37.7 pts over GFS at 36.7.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The weather patterns remain poor for enhanced warmth over the next few weeks as the pressure forces, both high and low remain poorly aligned for warm weather across the UK. Having said that the weather will never be a washout with plenty of dry and bright weather for all. However with a source of wind from between West and North from early next week we cannot expect temperatures to be any better than average and they will often be rather below. The nights become a worry too for gardeners and growers as the NW or North flow of air is sufficiently weak at times for winds to fall light at night and under clear skies ground frost is a real risk even though we are approaching late May. With regard to rainfall there looks likely to be rather a lot of dry weather for all but showery days are expected for all too and at times these could be heavy and thundery locally. Longer term there is still a weak signal for High pressure to build in somewhat from the West late in the two week period which could hopefully kill off the North flow and showers to something rather warmer and settled but that seems a long way off at the moment. So it looks like we will have a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather over the next two weeks with showers in places and temperatures near to or somewhat below normal at times and some very unseasonably chilly nights.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday May 14th 2015

Surely its fairly representative - its calculated over a pretty big area:  Lancashire, London and Bristol....

Looking at the charts and it amazing to keep this Sunday and BH Monday good days again for car boot sales and would be 3/4 of Bank Holiday Monday not being a wash out.  Temps wise haven't been high this month and only recorded 24C last Monday which was the poor day with lot of clouds, yesterday and today are better despite cooler weather but I prefer this method as long we seeing lot of sunshine.  Who need 24C and cloudy? or 18C and sunny? take your pick!

If the current model output verifies as shown, it could well be that May bucks the trend. The last below CET month IIRC was last August, and that was a month that, after the first week, was dominated by winds from the N/NW. I would say that the current model charts remind me in many ways of those I saw frequently last August.

Certainly shows the regional variation in perceptions of the weather. My impression of this year here in Hampshire has been overwhelmingly sunny and warm so far, albeit with a lot of chilly nights (including 1C and -3C on the grass last night - had to cover up the courgette plants!). A chilly wind at times has been about the only thing to complain about.

The ground is already taking on a rather parched appearance, as rain has been in short supply.

Regarding the CET and it's relevant perception of weather to the rest of the population...

The combined populations of: Cornwall, Devon,
Somerset, Dorset, Hampshire, West & East Sussex, and Kent equate to around -

8.5million.

This is greater then the populations of Scotland & Wales combined, and almost certainly greater then that of northern England.

Also these counties are not included in the CET.

Another point some may find interesting..

Hampshire that extreme southern county has a population one third the size of Scotland.