HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MAY 18TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery West to Northwest airflow will follow a cold front SE across Southern England today with a Low pressure centre drifting across Northern Scotland later today and tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter with rain at times restricted to the far North from early next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently slipping South across the UK as a trough of Low pressure migrates away East from the UK midweek. It then slowly reverts to a more Northerly latitude, probably to the NW of Scotland blowing in a NE direction next weekend and beyond as pressure rises from the South.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a theme of High pressure gradually extending influence NE towards at least Southern Britain later this week and more nationally in Week 2. The weather will remain showery though for several days this week with a second weak front crossing South late in the week with a little rain for a time before the better weather arrives in time for the Bank Holiday Weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows strong support for the operational's theme with an enhanced High pressure area lying across the UK next week. In the meantime the showery and cool theme of present will last till midweek before the better weather arrives in the South. However, it may take a few days for the better weather to get a foothold more nationally as a weak trough looks like flowing South across the UK with a little rain late this week clearing away in time for the Bank Holiday break.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a strong indication that High pressure is likely to be in control of the UK weather in two weeks time centred near or over the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the cool and showery weather clearing away later in the week as pressure rises from the SW with fine weather in the South later in the week extending influence to all areas over the Bank Holiday weekend and probably holding on over the South at least into next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cshowery Low pressure area over Scotland moving away east midweek as pressure rises under a ridge across Southern Britain later. there is another set of fronts shown to move down across the UK at the end of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure developing just to the west of the Uk from later this week, tantalisingly close to give fine and dry weather for all but not close enough to prevent occasional troughs affecting the far north and NE from some light rain at times in still cool air here while elsewhere becomes rather warmer with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM remains more tentative in it's spread of better weather over the extended weekend with a NW flow shown down across the UK with some troughs bringing a little rain at times in rather cloudy skies and still cool weather but the rain looks like being most restricted towards Northern and Eastern Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today looks pretty good this morning with High pressure extending influence across the UK from the end of the Bank Holiday weekend. Before that the current showery and cool weather is shown to clear away midweek as a benign and quiet weather pattern develops later in the week before a weak front moving South early in the weekend is the precursor to the better weather likely nationally thereon.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  shows a large ridge of High pressure lying towards the UK from an Atlantic anticyclone in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The model output have shifted towards much more influence shown by the Azores High in week 2 first picked up some days ago by the GFS Ensemble pack and maintained now across much of the other output too.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 85.8 over UKMO's 83.4pts with GFS at 82.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 51.0 pts over GFS's 50.5 pts. Then at Day 10 GFS gains superiority at 34.2 pts over ECM at 33.5.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The weather models this morning remain fairly optimistic that the UK will be heading for a period of better weather than currently being experienced from the end of this week. The showery Low pressure currently will move away East soon after midweek with benign conditions following under a Westerly breeze. The North could see a little rain especially at the end of the week as a front moves SE down over all areas with a band of cloud and very little rain likely in the South before all areas then see a more concerted extension to the good weather to affect all areas late in the weekend. Next week looks set fair for many with a ridge of High pressure from a High pressure fairly close to the UK affecting all areas with some sunshine and warmer conditions especially in the South while the far  North remains at risk from troughs skirting by just to the North but overall there will only be small amounts of rain pretty much everywhere after the next few days and while sunshine will possibly be in fairly short supply until later in the weekend it then looks like next week should feel quite summery for many.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday May 19th 2015

Thanks Martin, sounds more promising!

While the upcoming high pressure-orientated settled spell is starting to firm up with each model run, just hope that blocking high doesn't keep parking itself to the west of the UK thus causing the wind over the South East to be always coming in from the north east resulting in supressed temperatures and low cloud (AKA this time last year and the year before while the rest of the country faired very well).
  Although I understand that the SST's around the South East of England are slightly higher than this time last year? Maybe that's me looking at this in a half empty glass kind of way but as Matty says, I look at this of thing with low expectations and then this way I won't be too disappointed if I'm not experiencing wall to wall sunshine and high temperatures just yet.

The main high is always to the west or southwest, with the UK under a ridge which at anytime could collapse and allow Atlantic systems in.

Temps near average with fairly warm conditions at times under any strong sunshine.

Agreed.  Its a better scenario than many were anticipating but fraught with embedded troughs, and the further S and W one is in these scenarios the better.  As IDJ bemoans in his glass half empty view, the risk is always there that a NE flow will be-clag the coasts in the E.

Overall once we get past the next couple of days all looking very reasonable for the foreseeable, particularly on the "rated" ECM.

Hmmmm....18z is crap.

The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 19TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery West to Northwest airflow will continue to blow down across the UK today and tonight with a ridge of High pressure moving into Western Britain tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Slowly becoming drier and brighter especially towards the SW but still rather cool with a little rain at times towards the North and NE.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational's main theme this morning is for High pressure to lie out to the SW of the UK for some considerable time, tantalisingly close to give the chance of some fine and in places less cool weather especially towards the SW. However, it looks unlikely to fully restrict some ingress of cooler air from the NW at times with troughs crossing SE at times down over the North and East with cloud cover and a little rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows strong support for High pressure to become dominant in the shape of a ridge across England and Wales from later this week and lasting well into next. This run then shows the High making it's way across the UK to the East with pressure falling to both the South and East of UK with a somewhat showery and cool end to the run shown in a NE flow.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a High pressure based pattern to be dominant across the UK in two weeks time. Unfortunately it looks likely to be badly positioned to bring anything other than cool NW or North winds and the threat of some showers at times down over the UK as the High centre lies over the Atlantic to the West or NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a ridge of High pressure lying across the UK from an anticyclone out to the SW of the UK. The best weather looks likely in the SW over the Bank Holiday with the rest of the UK seeing a lot of dry if rather cloudy conditions with the odd shower possible and temperatures less cool than recently though never overly warm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a High pressure ridge from the SW trying desparately hard to build across the UK with some weak fronts moving SE in the flow at times ensuring much cloud cover and temperatures suppressed to average levels at best over the holiday weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM too this morning maintains the stance that once established in a few days time High pressure will remain focused out to the SW of the UK with a West or NW flow across the UK. northern areas will see occasional light rain from weak troughs and the remnants of these will bring cloudier skies to the South too at times with the best and warmest weather likely to the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is also fully in support of the NW flow down over the UK with high pressure to the SW. the flow will bring rather cloudy skies down across the UK perhaps with a little rain with the highest risk to the North and East of this while the SW will see the driest, brightest and warmest conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today is not quite as good as yesterday morning's run as it holds High pressure just too far out into the Atlantic allowing more influence of a chilly NW flow to be maintained well into next week and including the Bank Holiday weekend. The most likely weather over the UK for the weekend will be rather cloudy for many with a few showers at times especially in the North and East with the best of any brightness towards the SW with this trend being maintained through the working days of next week too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows rock solid support that High pressure will lie out to the SW of the UK in 10 days time with a light NW drift across the UK with the SW of the UK best for any warmth and sunshine.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The model output have become more resigned to the fact that High pressure will remain just too far out to the West or SW of the UK next week to have any real summery effect on the weather across the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.1 over UKMO's 83.4pts with GFS at 82.0. At 8 days ECM and GFS are tied today at 51.6 pts each. Then at Day 10 GFS and ECM are again tied at 33.6pts each.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS I detect a slight overall backtrack from the models this morning in the extent of the ridge to the SW and how much effect that has over the UK over the weekend and next week. Though the pattern shown between the models is rock solidly the same across all output including the ensembles and clusters the difficulty lies in them determining how far the ridge is going to build across the UK and whether it is sufficient enough to prevent troughs of Low pressure to feed down across the UK from the NW and as a result make things cool and cloudy as opposed to bright and somewhat warmer. The main message is that while the High remains out to the SW whether a ridge is present or not there is unlikely to be a heatwave as the NW flow will be feeding air across the UK from seas to the NW which have temperatures somewhat below average for this time of year. In addition cloud cover will be quite large at times especially towards the North and East with the SW seeing the best of the conditions through most of the period. So my best description of conditions in the next two weeks on a UK wide basis is 'benign'. There should be a reduction over the rest of the month in the amounts of rain that the UK has seen so far but I suppose what most people would like to see is the High to drift NE across and to the East of the UK sending us warm continental air up and across us and bringing our first taste of real summer but there seems little indication of that happening over the next few weeks so high Summer must remain on hold for a few more weeks if this morning's output is to be believed.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday May 20th 2015

Need a good out put for Bank Holiday Monday For Kilmersdon Fete ....

Hi all

Here's today's video update;

Next 8-10 Days + A New Long Range Model;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Rest of May looking similar to how we've had it, TBH...

The new long range model is the Canadian, BTW. 

That is in line with my expectations too unfortunately. 

Its just my opinion but I just feel we will be chasing summer for a few more weeks yet. 

Although early June is often cool and unsettled with the fabled June Monsoon, which I am sure has some impacts in the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

This chart perfectly depicts why we despair of our summers most of the time.

What really bugs me about the charts showing up for next week is that strange area of nothing much between the Azores High and a weaker ridge over eastern parts of Europe. You'd think that the low heights would split, resulting in a distinct trough over Europe and another to the NW of the UK while high pressure extends from the Azores to Scandinavia, yet instead the models project a continued stalemate with the shallow area of low heights receiving imports from the northwest every now and then.

I'm not saying it won't turn out like that, it just seems like a lot of bad luck.

I wonder if the mess of lower heights over the southern half of Europe is being aided to some extent by all the anomalous heat that they've been experiencing down there?

One thing that's clear is that the projected pattern will be shifting a lot of that heat toward Asia instead. Then I suppose we'll be watching and waiting for the westerlies to pick up again and bring an end to what looks to be an unusually long period of highly meridional (north-south and vice versa) conditions when all's said and done. That could help us out by shifting the pattern east with the ridge into Europe... or it could land us with unsettled westerlies which would probably be hailed as the 'European Monsoon Set to Last X Weeks' by the usual suspects 

Not the best chart for this time of year admittedly, but there again I have seen much worse. Virtually every model run during "summer" 2012 as the best recent example.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 20TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool West or NW flow will weaken across the UK over the next 24 hours or so as a ridge affects the South tomorrow and a front affects the far NW by the same time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter especially towards the SW but still rather cool with a little rain at times towards the North and NE.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational's main theme this morning is for High pressure to lie out to the WSW of the UK for some considerable time, never close enough to guarantee full influence over the UK with the ridge over the Uk from it collapsing at times to allow weak troughs SE across Britain with cloud and a little rain. then in the second half of the run low pressure again comes down from the cool North giving rise to a sustained cool and showery period as the Low pressure swirling around the UK out to the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run without going into specific detail is in good support of the operational run with Low pressure becoming the main player again over the second half of the run after a period of benign NW winds in association with High pressure down to the SW in the first half of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today still show a more restricted bias towards a High pressure ridge affecting the UK from the SW but with more support today for Low pressure to be a player too later in the period with a variety of options meaning a greater chance of rain at times late in the period.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a weakening ridge of High pressure giving way to  a straight Northerly flow by Bank Holiday Monday with some showers likely epecially in the East and South following a little rain on Sunday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of weak troughs moving SE across the Uk through the period with some light rain at times as they pass though with some drier and bright spells too with conditions a little less cold than recently.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a High pressure ridge affecting the UK for much of the next week with a light and cool drift of wind at times from the North and variable cloud cover. late in the run as with GFS it shows Low pressure moving down towards Northern Britain with a greater threat of rain for all by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a Northerly or NW flow across the UK through the start of next week though with High pressure out to the SW extending a ridge at times towards the UK only scattered showers affecting the far East for a time should be the only annoying weather factor in an otherwise benign period of weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows a lot of benign conditions too over the weekend and start to next week as a NW flow remains weak with a lot of cloud at times and the odd shower too. later in the period it looks like pressure will fall as the High to the SW declines and allows slack Low pressure to take control in a more showery theme nationwide by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show High pressure out to the WSW with a slack North or NW flow across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The model continue to oscillate between quiet and benign NW or North winds together with fair weather and Low pressure re-establishing later next week with rain at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.2 over UKMO's 83.3pts with GFS at 81.9. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.8 over 51.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 33.6pts to 33.5pts

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Things still look undecided in where we go with the UK synoptic pattern in the second half of the outputs forecasts this morning. As of yesterday there is still some models who think that the gradual shift will be back towards more unsettled and showery conditions in the latter stages of next week and beyond. In the shorter term things are a little more agreed in that the likely pattern will be one of NW or North winds blowing down over the UK over the Bank Holiday period. The timing of weak fronts crossing South in the flow will be instrumental in determining day to day conditions in any one place but what can be said is that it will probaly feel less chilly when the sun shines with temperatures close to average though still rather chilly feeling under the cloudier spells of which there will be quite a few and any light rain or showers that fall from these clouds. Then as we move deeper into next week it looks likely that there will be some deterioration in conditions as Low pressure reignites from the NW to bring an increased risk of showers among the continuing drier phases. Overall though things look rather drier than what we have seen through May so far with some pleasant sunshine making it feel warmer too than recently but confidence in any one solution as we move into June looks lower than usual.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday May 21st 2015

Agreed and how the most boring set-up ever that made me quit weather observing and recording temps in end of 2012 because of poor runs of summers that have no interest high temps or anything else just boring rain showers and cool temps.  Like yesterday was very boring day with rain showers as it nothing exciting than watching real storms I witnessed abroad or in the 90's storms here.  This month seem to pass without a single normal few days heat wave up to 27-28C that usually hit every year here.   Despite the very poor May so far it seem giving us a grace for a decent BH weekend again here with large HP covering as much as UK to start with then cover the South on Monday before boring NW flow come back again. I hope this will end as soon as June arrive and bring the warmth that we badly needed.  Going to France and Germany next month for 4 days each and hopefully EU Low to bugger off.

The outlook is a changeable one but with low confidence...............

This bloody Azores high just doesn't want to move over the UK . Perhaps Moomin's and others pessimism wasn't so far from the mark. Little sign today of proper summer on the horizon.

Patience guys, we have got all Summer still to come, May 2013 was even worse.