Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Could it get hot next week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

High pressure building in we think but temperatures uncertain...

Anyway, ECM is very good 

A thundery low moving up from the plans of Spain from tonight's ECM 12z!

Ok it goes a little Pete Tong but still very warm nevertheless.

Lots of thundery goodness there I would have thought? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

I have a feeling the ECM 12Z may prove to be something of an outlier. It seems to be totally at odds with what GFS shows in the same timeframe plus what the ECM 00z showed this morning.

Some severe thunderstorms for Ireland on that run.  But no doubt that will go mammary glands up on the next one.

This NWx version of HIRLAM has severe gales over open waters approaching from the west during Monday...!

I suspect this is at the extreme end of the scenarios being put out at the moment. Or at least I hope!

I've promised everyone a good Derby weekend for about a fortnight now......looking distinctively possible at the moment

Ecm going very warm even hot end of next week. Thunder about as well perfect Summer weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Yep, me likewise Andy.

Same. It rains all winter. Why would I want useable weather ruined by rain in summer??? Zero interest in thunderstorms. 

A warm up of sorts looking fairly assured now. The specifics in terms of whether it's ruined by any rain, or stays sunny are far from clear. 

As the old saying goes - more runs needed. 

ECM in FI goes for uppers of 15 c into the south.  Could get hot and thundery next weekend.  Interesting to see how this develops or whether the more cold and unsettled GFS 0z run is nearer the mark. Edit - Im with the warm/hot and sunny crew!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 29TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will cross Southern and Eastern Britain today followed by a NW flow later, showery in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow undulating across the UK for the next 3-4 days before the flow shifts slowly towards the NW of the UK blowing in a NE direction and later still becoming weak and broken in pattern well away to the NW of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows Low pressure from off the Atlantic well in control of the UK weather for the enxt 3-4 days or so bringing rain and showers to all areas in cool and windy conditions. Then the weather improves from the South later as pressure builds North. Then pressure becomes High to the North of the UK but it isn't long before Low pressure eases up from Southern Europe to affect Southern Britain through Week 2 with warm and humid conditions and thundery rain ir showers widely across the South later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control not available at time of issue this morning.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters not available this morning at time of issue.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning is rather disappointing in that it shows Low pressure remaining in control well into the middle of next week with a centre over us early in the week and then to the NW later keeping rain and showers going for many under Atlantic winds from a SW quarter with the most rainfall and blustery conditions becoming more restricted towards the NW by the end of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show no real evidence of much of an improvement in the offing even at day 5 with a concoction of troughs and Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK continuing to drive bands of rain and showers across the UK in generally cool conditions for the time of year.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today follows a GFS type theme in showing better weather appearing across the UK later next week following a wet and cool, windy period earlier in the week. The improvement in weather in terms of dry weather proves short-lived across the South as the warm and humid air developing then and falling pressure triggers thundery showers or rain at times over the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks closer to UKMO in it's theme maintaining a weakness to the NW of the UK a week from now and although much weaker than currently enough influence from this could give rise to occasional rain still especially to the NW whereas Southern Britain become drier and warmer with increasing humidities.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM looks reasonably encouraging this morning as it replaces the current cool and unsettled period with Low pressure close by with High pressure building to the East and NE of Britain in the second half of the run with attendant fine and  warm if breezy weather for many but with an increasing risk of thundery showers in the South and SW as pressure falls over Biscay.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night maintains a ridge of High pressure across the UK from the SW maintaining largely fine, warm and dry conditions for many by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather a week from now remains but with an increasing trend towards possible thundery weather across the South later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.4 over UKMO's 82.4 pts with GFS at 82.0. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.3 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.2 pts to 23.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to indicate an improvement on the way probably from the middle of next week. UKMO does look a bit concerning on it's day 6 chart and it would be nice to have it on board of the main camp of showing High pressure building up from the South later next week bringing some much needed proper summer warmth and humidity. That humidity could be a problem though as there is increasing support for thundery low pressure to edge up from Europe later in the period with thundery rain and showers affecting Southern Britain later. We must not of course forget that we have a lot of weather to get through first in the shape of cool and windy conditions with rain and showers at times as Low pressure streams in off the Atlantic along with attendant active fronts. However, with a weakening Jet flow later next week and a repositioning of it to a point well NW of the UK things should improve markedly from those of present and if the price to pay for some real Summer warmth is some thundery outbreaks I think many will take that as long as any Easterly drift crossing the North Sea restricts the amount of low cloud onto eastern coasts to the coast itself.

Next update from 08:00 Saturday May 30th 2015

Warm and possibly thundery later on nice.

GFS looks fine for southern areas. 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Warm June Thoughts With JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Use's JMA/CFS monthlies + look's at next weekend's heat and thunder chances...

The 6Z seems to be a considerable downgrade in terms of T2M for the south, as the winds quickly switch to the NW.