Having said what I did a few moments ago - Looks like 32C plus is in there.

Yes think the ecm would get to 32c. In June and July 1976 though Heathrow got to 32c 15 days in a row! That's going to take some beating.

Stunning output. James' summary is almost erotic. 

If only it was at T+24

It most certainly does, and stays rather soupy right through. 

The 18z has shifted toward ECM in some ways for the Friday-Sunday period, resulting in a longer lasting initial plume which detabilises each day yet isn't cleared away due to the lack of any real jet stream activity to drive a push from the west.

What really fascinates me is how the trough to our SW ends up stuck there for days on end, right to the end of the run. After such unusually strong jet activity in the next few days, this is some way to balance things out!

I guess it's just a matter of timing; the shift in the hemispheric pattern looks to be at least partly in response to an MJO event taking place at this point in time, and promotes those height rises over Europe, which just happen to coincide with what could be a major a break in the Atlantic westerlies.

Perhaps I was hasty to mention 'hottest June on record' as a possibility, given how far below average the first day or two look like being, but this afternoon and evening's output has got me thinking about how it takes these sort of coincidences for the most extreme events to take place, and how we've managed to escape that sort of thing for a long time now, especially in terms of high temperatures.

It would be fascinating to experience a top-tier heatwave in June, when the days are at their very longest. If only there wasn't the health impact side of things.

All speculation at this point - let's see how the models manage to negate this particular heatwave even with a lack of westerly momentum to do it with 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY MAY 30TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will cross the UK from the West today followed by troughs of Low pressure moving East and NE over the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later but with the risk of thundery showers.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow moving NE across the UK over the coming days. Then later next week the flow's belt shifts more towards the NW and weakens across Scotland before breaking up further by next weekend to lead to a much lighter flow ill defined and sinking well South across the Atlantic before returning to the present position towards the end of the period and strengthening somewhat again.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows strong West or SW winds over the coming 3-4 days with rain at times as Low pressure areas cross East just to the North of Scotland carrying troughs East over all parts with rain and showers at times. Conditions then improve under rising pressure as warm and humid air moves up from the South around High pressure formed to the East. However, it isn't long before the weather breaks down into thundery rain and showers in the South and West as the warmest air retreats back towards Europe and an eventual return to more changeable conditions with rain at times in SW winds under Low pressure is set up at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control today shows a similar evolution to the operational run in the first week though the breaksown to thundery weather over the South and West is less pronounced in this run. Winds do become Easterly as Low pressure resides over Europe with temperatures on the decline somewhat through the second week as winds back North-east and then Northerly as High pressure migrates out into the Atlantic again. A lot of dry weather would likely be maintained especially in the West where the warmest weather would end up being.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today are a mixed bunch but favour a High pressure ridge in varying degrees of strength and position maintaining set fair conditions across the UK in relatively light winds and temperatures near or above average in the South.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things gently improving from midweek as the strong and unstable Westerly airflow prior to this is replaced by light winds and warm temperatures across the South at least by the end of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain a very trough laden airflow from a Westerly point for the coming three or four days before the flow weakens across the Atlantic and pressure builds from the South across Southern Britain soon after midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a muted improvement later next week as pressure builds from the South along with an injection of warm and humid air. However, very quickly this is shown to breakdown as a thundery Low becomes absorbed by more unstable Atlantic air to bring cooler and changeable conditions back for a time before another attempt at more settled conditions arrives later as High pressure builds NE across the North at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows better weather for a time later next week with the main feature being the much better temperatures than of late especially across the South and East. It too shows a breakdown to thundery rain as a trough crosses East later next week with fresher air returning into the West for a time next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM completes the set with agreement on warm and humid conditions developing late next week as High pressure moving up from the South settles things down briefly. Low pressure is also shown to move up into Biscay and the continent in general later as High pressure drifts to the NE of the UK with humid air blowing lightly across the UK promoting thundery showers in places especially the South affecting other areas too by Day 10 as cooler fresher air arrives from the SW behind the thundery trough.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night maintains a ridge of High pressure across the UK from the SW maintaining largely humid and warm or very warm air with the potential risk of heavy showers in slack pressure gradients across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather a week from now remains but with a continuing trend towards possible thundery or more unsettled weather across the South later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.5 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 85.9 over UKMO's 82.2 pts with GFS at 81.5. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.4 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.9 pts to 23.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models remain in good support of a shift of emphasis away from cool and unsettled conditions to things considerably warmer from the middle of next week, especially across the South. I hesitste to say settled though as there is strong evidence that in a relatively short period of time a surge of humid air from the South with falling pressure will generate showers and thundery rain from the end of the week. Thereafter, things look rather more uncertain with some output showing a more unsettled theme again with Low pressure close by and rain at times which as a result would bring temperatures down to rather fresher levels again. However, having said that there is also support for High pressure to settle to the North of the UK with any unsettledness held more towards the South and even the output that suggests a return to cooler conditions late show High pressure rebuilding again after a short hiatus. Whatever happens it looks at long last that the cool and unsettled Westerly or NW pattern type of late will soon be replaced by more seasonal temperatures and a general better complexion felt by all that it is Summer. Night's should become considerably warmer than of late too and in any prolonged sunny spells between any thundery showers it should feel very warm late next week and while we may not be looking at long lasting dry conditions with wall to wall sunshine the higher temperatures between the showers should give us little cause to complain against recent standards.

NOTE: There will be no report from me tomorrow morning. Hopefully back on Monday morning at maybe a slightly later time than normal.

Next update from 08:00 Monday June 1st 2015

ECM showing some potent thundery stuff breaking out over next weekend in 15c + uppers.

Look at it like this James. June 1975 delivered impressive extremes in temperatures. I think it was about 1 week from a max of 9C to a max of 27C.

:-)

Until we get to all that, it looks like the UK, especially the northern half, may have to put up with one more blast of Autumnal weather on Monday and into Tuesday. Hope it will be worth the wait when it come to hoping for proper warm summer-like weather later on down the line.

EDIT: Looking at the latest GFS run, that could well make up the wait since July 2006 if that came off! I'm glad I no longer work in a tomato greenhouse, instead can look forward to the warmth like normal people, although I and my elderly mother may not appreciate the humid nights.

ECM is looking very warm if not locally hot and increasingly thundery.

Crap outlook from my POV, but I'm not in the slightest surprised.

The reason you've been having coldish weather for so long is because of the jet patterns here in western North America (which themselves were set up by a duo of typhoons in the Pacific a few weeks back). There's been a bubble of very warm conditions persisting for weeks (record-breakingly warm, in fact) and as a result colder air was displaced - the longwave pattern means it went across the pole to western Europe.

The exceptional warmth broke yesterday in western Canada (and northern Alaska a couple of days earlier) and here in Seattle it'll be breaking on Monday.

As things get back to normal over here the warmth is being pushed elsewhere... and thanks to the long-wave pattern it looks like a similarly hot spell is going to set up over western Europe, just in time for my arrival back home.

It's sod's law, as warm weather seems to follow me around when I go on holiday :P

Some interesting output for next weekend without question but the UKMO is not picking up on the pressure rise to our east. Warmest June on record though? 1846 is going to be one hell of a target to beat 😛, still goes to show how variable weather can be from one month to the next.

Cracking 12z GFS

Just looking at my CET tables.

June 1846 CET 18.2C

For comparison June 1976 CET 17.0C

I like it, bit of heat followed by high pressure moving in very quickly again. Cooler but at this time of year as long as it's sunny and settled it's warm enough!

Beggars can't be choosers I know, but I would like to see the angle on that trough out west become more vertical on GFS. As it is on today's 12Z, it lops the head off the plume and sweeps it eastwards very rapidly. And the rapid eastward sweep of the heat is being backed up by UKMO too as just mentioned. However I like the way GFS continues the dominance of HP after the initial plume, which doesn't look odds on with the much hotter ECM run. 

Exciting stuff though on the whole, and the contrast between the beginning and end of next week will likely be insane! 

Fantastic ECM tonight 18c 850s next Saturday. 850s above 15c from Friday to Monday. High pressure rebuilding again by day ten about as good as you can get for early June.

The latest GFS doesn't look so great as yesterday, that hot spell has been reduced to a couple of days mainly in the southern half of the country. By the 8th there's even a risk of frost in northern England, what a great country this is.

There are going to be plenty of alterations as the week goes on; some good. some bad 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

ECM looks a classic!