As a counterweight to Andy's somewhat misleading post above...

The GFS 12z actually had a fair bit of sun for many parts next week, though often cloudier in Scotland.

It looked fresh for the northern half the UK on Monday and Thursday with mid-teens maximums which is not great going I know, but the other days all hit the high teens to low 20's for much England and Wales, even approaching the mid-20's in the far south midweek.

Bearing in mind that UKMO has the high pressure extending a bit further east than GFS, and ECM further still, the outlook seems about as promising as I can recall seeing an any evening since early April 

Here's hoping Cumbria joins in with the warm conditions and decent amounts of sunshine... or better still, the whole of Northern England with Scotland included for good measure! 

Another  decent ECM this morning, if I lived in Cornwall Id be drooling over high surface pressure and +10 uppers.

Petty good for S generally. less HP influence the further N and E you go.

Well we've had a little bit of rain overnight but I don't think it will change the situation much as its been dryer than average for 6 months here. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 13TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough of Low pressure slow moving acoss Central parts of England and Wales will weaken further and return SE across SE Britain as pressure builds from the West tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly fine and warm across the South and West. Cloudier with a little rain at times in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow to the North of the UK ebbing and flowing a little South then ridging back North later in the week. The flow then becomes more cyclonic around a cut off Low near Southern Britain late in the run.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure largely in control of the weather often situated to the SW of the UK and most influential to the South of the UK with more of an occasional intervention of Atlantic fronts from the Atlantic affecting the North. Later in the run High pressure shifts more towards the North of the UK with a switch to North as best as thundery Low pressure again shows some ingress into Southern Britain later

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is High pressure based too for the next week to 10 days again positioned out to the SW of the UK throwing a ridge towards Southern Britain. Then through the second week the more changeable conditions affecting the North will become much more widespread as Low pressure becomes dominat across the UK in the latter stages of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today some members showing fine weather holding on across the UK in two weeks time but with an increased group today indicating that Low pressure maybe showing a greater hand on conditions across the UK probably from the NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a lot of dry and warm weather across the South with a period of cloudier, windier and occasionally damper weather for a period midweek in the North. Then late in the week High pressure affecting the South is shown to build back across the North too by next weekend with fine and warm conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts look broadly similar to the raw data as High pressure ridging in from the SW squeezes the life out of the weakening troughs across the South and then with a weakening cold front approaching from the West by later in the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows very similar dynamics through the period as High pressure ridging across the South early in the week is interrupted in the North by troughs and some rain midweek before all areas join in with better weather later in the run as High pressure builds across all areas with some fine and warm conditions for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a very summery period developing late in the week with the tentative High pressure affecting the South early and midweek extending to all areas later with fine and in places very warm and sunny weather by next weekend especially across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows South and West is best this week as High pressure to the SW exerts it's best influence to these areas while in the North and East cloudier and cooler weather with a little rain in association with weak fronts travelling SE midweek and again later in the week slows the progress of better weather to the North. then at the very end of the run a fall in pressure could bring some showers almost anywhere and a cool northerly could be noticeable across the east for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains locked on the fact that High pressure is likely to be strongly ridged across the UK from the SW in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure becoming influential eventually to all areas.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.0 pts with UKMO at 83.1 pts and GFS at 82.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.5 over 40.8. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.4 pts to 22.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Fine Summerlike conditions across the UK still look likely to be affecting many parts of Britain although patience for the very best weather may be necessary especially if you live in the North. High pressure to the SW remains the focus of attention for this as it ridges towards Southern Britain through the week and to all areas from next weekend. The North will see more Atlantic winds and occasional rain as troughs move across from the West especially midweek before pressure builds across these areas too later bringing the good weather covering the South for much of the time across these Northern areas too. Some very warm weather can be expected especially across the South and SW which remain closest to the centre of the High pressure. Then as we move through Week 2 although some evidence of a breakdown perhaps into another thundery or cooler showery period is shown and this includes ECM this morning this is by no means set in stone and could be due to individual variances between the runs. The ensembles look good though in the 10 day period from all output and it's not until we reach the outer limits of the period that more unsettled conditions show a bit more coherence today. So lets continue to look forward to a period of good summer weather when the large proportion of the time is dry, fine and warm with just the usual summer caveats of the North seeing a rain at times or the chance of a thundery shower or two in the South again later in the period 

Next update from 08:00 Monday June 15th 2015

No report tomorrow. Will be back as normal Monday morning.

We haven't done badly up here this week, James. Has generally been a much, much better week than any we've had since late April.

Hey guys,

Someone's asked me whether MetO France;

http://www.meteofrance.fr/

Show's things like precipitation, etc.. From the ECM model rather than just the usual pressure and 850 charts we usually see from ECM.

I said I wasn't sure but would ask around. So, anybody know if this is right? 

I've never come across such ECM output on Meto France but the Icelandic Met Office site shows the ECM  Precipitation and Cloud charts for the Atlantic which includes (most of) the UK

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/

You would need a very deep pocket to get anything from MeteoFrance.    They use their own Arpege model for the few charts that are on site.

https://donneespubliques.meteofrance.fr/?fond=rubrique&id_rubrique=30

Icelandic Met Office cache a lot of ECM data but it is not on public web site other than this N.Atlantic forecast which has rain and cloud added to the the ones we get from other sites.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

GFS 12z op is excellent again for southern and southwestern areas. Not too shabby for other areas as it goes on either 

Thanks Rob and Nouska. Will tell the person that asked, that... No, it's not ECM (I didn't think it was but thought I'd ask anyway) 

Given the 12z won't appear for another three hours we'll have to start calling you Mystic Matty.  

I bet it will be good for south and south-west anyway though... Next week does look quite nice.

Hahaha!! Rephrase - 06z 

Another handy site for ECM data such Atlantic MSL, temp, fronts and prep if it is of any use:

http://www.ipma.pt/en/otempo/prev.numerica/index.jsp

Even UKMO thoroughly decent for the vast majority of the population for most of the working week.  Here is Fridays prediction:

Nice chart - but there is still a lot of crap hanging about there.

Can't grumble about that as I have next week off work and planning to go camping in the southwest next weekend. 

But let's hope late June or July can deliver some real heat. 

Sorry but for my area it all looks crap!

High pressure is too far west and with a slack north westerly flow it will be cool and cloudy.

Andy

Looks pretty damn good for here and many other areas 

Looks good for here. GFS shows maximums in the low twenties all next week - can't complain about that. The recent warmth has taken the average closer to normal so with any luck we might reach or exceed normal by month's end - well, in terms of average high.

Before that though, GFS shows lows of freezing here on Monday morning - but I suspect it's overdoing things as it often does. Leeds has never recorded a frost in June so I'll eat my hat if one happens now.

Don't look at the models if you like bemoaning how poor the outlook is. A decent week coming up in the whole. Better the further south and west you are. Yesterday aside this is becoming a very decent and very useable spell of summer weather. Not flaming June by any stretch, but as things stand I will look back on this fondly. 

Impressive. Unless it's 34C heat or -10C blizzards, I never remember anything these days

 I think that's half the problem. People (not yourself) forget we live in a country with about as mundane and average, and generally lacking in extremes climate, that when the weather is like it has been here the last ten days or so they whinge it's not good enough. 

Models look pretty decent to me, I must say. During the summers of 2007-2012, most here would have bitten one's hand off to have seen model runs like we have just now.

Watch it mate: remember what happened to Paddy Ashdown.

Mmm, indeed, while it does look fairly uneventful and pleasant for the most part of next week, but looking a little further afield I've noticed how GFS are sticking with the idea of a north east airflow over the south east which would result in increased cloud and supressed temperatures (quite similar to what it is happening right now). It is a long way off in forecasting terms in any case so I'm sure it won't end up as being too much of an issue.
  I reckon this June, while we have had far worse Junes in the past, will end up as being a fairly forgettable affair . . . for the right reasons.