I've only had time to glance at the models this evening but it looks to me like ECM is just taking the p. when it comes to that very weak disturbance in the Atlantic drifting right through the ridge and leading to all sorts of trouble down the line?

Hopefully the less progressive GFS solution will verify over that, with the feature stalling to the west or northwest of the UK. Or better still, the UKMO version of events, where a better defined Atlantic trough further to the west absorbs the weak disturbance before it can lead to any issues for us! JMA has similar ideas but doesn't quite pull it off... funny how these things are nearly always modeled to track across the UK one way or another while at the longer range.

Often we see sliders adjusting east if there's an Azores Ridge involved, and west if there's a blocking high over Europe. In both cases it's the ridges being initially underestimated... from which it can be inferred that in cases involving the Azores High, the default solution, with little or no ridging toward the UK or Europe, is for a sliding shortwave trough to pass through the UK.

Let's hope that the likes of ECM in particular are underestimating the ridge into Europe and the UK in a big way this evening.

Yes SC. The ECM goes off on one sometimes.  Summer or Winter.  I regard today's ECM 12z in the same sceptical way as if it showed a beast approaching in January at 192 hours...

Still Weather !!! Nice and dry here....Long may it last....

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 15TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will build across the UK today with troughs of Low pressure affecting the Northand NW later today, tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly fine and warm across the South and West. Cloudier with a little rain at times in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains the thorn in our side in restricting the best of Summer weather away to the South of the UK as the flow currently close to the North strengthens midweek and tilts NW to SE later in the week. The flow then strengthens further across the heart of the UK blowing West to East through Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure never far away from the South or SW of England over the two week period. While this may be fine for southermost parts the West or NW flow around it's Northern flank spends a lot of time blowing down across the UK with somewhat cooler and cloudier conditions as a result with some showers possible at times for Northern areas and some eastern parts too at times. equally there is some very warm periods shown for brief periods as warm air is wafted up from the South occasionally.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is also showing a High pressure ridge from the Azores to Southern England waxing and waning over the period as repeated attacks from Westerly or NW Atlantic winds affect the UK bringing cooler and cloudier conditions at times with some showery outbreaks most frequently to the North but also to the South too at times where the best of the pleasantly warm and dry conditions will continue to prevail.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a receded amount of influence shown today as ingress of Atlantic winds and fronts show signs of making inroads across the UK at times in two weeks time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK at times but with a feed of NW winds across the UK replacing the warm conditions in the South midweek with cooler though still pleasant conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the battle between the dominance of High pressure from the SW and a succession of weak or very weak troughs pushing down across the UK from the North later in the week and the West by the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM sthis morning shows overall good conditions across the UK through the next 10 days as it manages to hold strong influence from High pressure across the UK with the best conditions across the South while the North do see some cloudier and cooler conditions with a little rain from weak Atlantic troughs brushing by to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM has a High pressure ridge from the SW across the South of the UK at times occasionally put under pressure by weak fronts coming SE across the UK later this week and as a result tempering the warmth in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows High pressure in control of the weather ridging up from the SW with warm conditions in the South while some cloud and rain affect the North from troughs coming in off the Atlantic. Then late in the week the troughs sink South, weakening as they do but dropping temperatures back somewhat in the South. By the weekend and early next week the ridge has receded away SW somewhat but pressure remains slack but relatively high still across the UK with just the risk of a few showers here and there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows not much has changed over recent days with a ridge still showing likely to lie across the South from the Azores with more changeable westerly winds restricted towards the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.5 pts with UKMO at 83.2 pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.7 over 43.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 21.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains the driving force of the weather across the models this morning so nothing much has changed on that score over the weekend. However, it's nemesis is the Jet stream which refuses to lie down sufficiently to allow High pressure to otherwise ridge across the UK to Scandinavia and thereby give us very warm and sunny weather for a sustained period. Instead we have to deal with the consequences and complications that it's centre held down to the SW of the UK gives us in the shape of cooler air filtering down across the UK from the NW as well as weak troughs delivering pathcy rain across the North at times. While there are differing day to day varaiations on the positioning of the ridge and High pressure centre itself shown between the ouputs today the message from all is broadly the same. So this week looks pretty good especially if you live across the South where some Tropical maritime air feeds in midweek raising temperatures to very warm levels for a time in the South. Then as a toppling set of fronts come down over the UK cooler air is fed back once more and while the effects of this will always be muted in the South the North looks unlikely to see any sustained warm and dry weather for a while yet with temperatures never better than average here. Longer term changes look to be slow and the general trend appears to be to keep the status quo of High pressure down to the SW and gentle West, NW or North winds blowing across the UK with fine and dry weather predominant and just a little rain at times in the North.  

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 16th 2015

At least the Washing will dry on the line....

Hmmm, ECM still seems to be thinking along similar lines to last night as far as I can see, James. UKMO doesn't appear to make so much of the weak disturbance to the NW at T144 as ECM does at the same timeframe.

Thanks Martin. Sounds good!

Starting to get annoying this is - After a dire weekend its not brilliant today and from Martin's forecast it looks like we're being robbed yet again.

It's those in the north and west that should feel nervous with the output. It still looks very pleasant for southerners for the week ahead 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE