Okay... so the ECM 12z op turned out to be one of those classic 'I'm going to be a total d**k' runs. The way it sustains the broad area of weakly low heights to our east and builds a ridge in at just the right angle to pull in air from around Svalbard - some of the coldest outside of the high Arctic... unfortunate is an understatement.

I'm being relative of course - with different ingredients at hand, the outlook could be far wetter and windier. The point is that it would be hard to do much worse than that ECM run based on the situation across the Atlantic and Europe in 4-5 days time.

In some ways it will be an interesting experiment to see how close to that path we end up travelling.

Okay I admit, I'm not all that bothered from an IMBY perspective to be honest, as this month is likely to have featured an acceptable number of fine afternoons and evenings even if we do take the ECM route - but I understand the frustration voiced by those who haven't fared so well these past two weeks and continue to see more cloud and suppressed temperatures in the output than they would like.

It's how I felt during the majority of May this year 

Meanwhile one week ahead JMA offers up an advancing high...again favouring the S and W

Exactly the same here Cultman!

So far 2015 has managed 20c+  a mere 5 times and have not yet seen a single 25c+

There has been a constant chill in the wind irrespective of direction.

Compare this year to last, chalk&cheese!

I think this belongs in Current Conditions; for your future reference please use that thread from now on for posts such as this.

Anything to back this up, Moomin? I've not seen a single outlet that has ever linked what happens in any individual month to the effects of an entire season, but I'm interested to see the evidence you've compiled. Probably the summer thoughts thread would be better than here though. Cheers. 

April wasn't warm here, mean of 7.4C (-0.3C) 
May was 1C below average and June so far is 2C below average.
No month this year has been above the mean.

The most likely reason June has been cold is the well below normal North Atlantic I would think.
So why is the Atlantic cold? - maybe due to the extreme cold in large part of North America through last winter.

NAVGEM goes for N-S split in just over a week...

GFS is a nightmare for everyone. But ECM and ukmo aren't to bad for the South. Some rain but quite warm 

All correct although here temperatures have been even lower (compared to average) as we are exposed to the persistent north westerly wind.

Daytime temperatures in May in Cumbria where the lowest since May 1979, only higher minimums prevented this May being colder than 1996, and it was very wet as well.

June has been remarkably cool with night after night giving temperatures below 5c and many days when it failed to reach 12c, to read many comments on here and by the MetO who should know better you would think it's been a blazing summer.

And looking at GFS it's about to get a whole lot worse.

Andy

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 16TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the South of the UK today will be superceded by a weakening front moving slowly South across the UK later today, tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated showers in relatively warm conditions in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains rather pessimistic in mood over the coming two weeks as the flow undulates across the UK in the coming days before strengthening under a UK trough next week and continuing in similar unseasonal mood in strength and positioning through Week 2 with very changeable weather likely for the UK as a result.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure never far away from the South or SW of England over the coming days maintaining a ridge towards the South with fine bright and reasonably warm conditions at times. Further North more cloud and a little rain at times seem likely from weak Atlantic troughs and with time the ridge over the South becomes tenuous enough to allow these troughs to slip further South and SE across the UK. Then next week the ridge loses influence altogether with a period of cyclonic weather with rain or showers for all later next week before a more NW/SE setup seems likely with the wetter conditions transferring towards the North and West in mild SW winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is a lot better if it's a continuation of fine and dry weather your after. Although a weakening of the High pressure ridge this coming weekend and early next week is indicated with a period of slack winds promoting a few showers High pressure builds back more favourably positioned later to draw some very warm air across the UK from the South for a while with a thundery breakdown late in the period and more unsettled weather to finish the period in the North and NW.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a rridge towards the UK promoting a lot of fine weather still in two weeks time. There are of course some exceptions to this general rule of thumb with a more Atlantic based pattern with rain at times but these members remain in the minority at the moment.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure maintained out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK in a light NW flow for many. A few showers may develop by the weekend and even more so early next week as a slightly more enhanced trough slips SE across the UK early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure continuing to be held out to the SW of Britain with weak frontal troughs invading the airspace of the UK  weakened by the associated ridge from the High across the South of the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM remains High pressure orientated comfortably in control of the weather across the UK with just a period of slacker pressure early next week that could promote the odd shower or two for a time and the odd trough affecting the far North of the UK at times too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too undulates a High pressure ridge towards and away from the South of the UK over the coming days and week with a NW flow carrying weak troughs down over the North and East at times perhaps with the odd shower.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is quite progressive in it's demise of the High pressure ridge early next week as shallow Low pressure moves into the UK next week promoting showers and outbreaks of rain and somewhat cooler conditions. By the end of the run though High pressure building South of the UK looks like it could bring back warm and settled weather to at least the South and East of the UK towards the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that our long lasting High pressure ridge is slowly being replaced by something of a bias towards a UK trough in slack winds looking likely in 10 days time. The methodology used to create the chart hides the patterns which make up it's view and vary quite a bit ine to another between both better and worse than what's shown.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone though some ingress of Low pressure from the NW does feature from some output next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.7 pts with GFS at 83.3 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.7 over 44.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 21.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning the models remain largely focused on the behaviour of High pressure positioned out to the SW of the UK and how much influence it holds across the UK. In the short term it does allow some weak fronts to cross South across the UK but rainfall amounts will be very restrictive and mostly towards the North. Cloud amounts will be large at times and this may hold temperatures down to comfortable levels in the North but some warm weather could be experienced in the South. Then next week there are indications with some cross model support that a period of more showery weather may develop as a more enhanced trough moves down from the North in the light flow. ECM is the most progressive of these outcomes with several days of relatively cool and unstable conditions. However, it does indicate too that High pressure may well build back after this at least across the South and East where hints that it might become very warm are shown. So in a nutshell today prospects remain reasonable and while a heatwave looks very unlikely in the near future as long as that High pressure remains out to the SW conditions look favourable enough for most people to enjoy some fine early Summer weather and although this may be punctuated with odd days of cloud and a little rain or showers no large rainfall amounts look likely across most areas of the UK for the next few weeks at least.  

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 17th 2015

Thank you Martin . Favourable prospects indeed. Summery weather just right... Fax charts will be viewed with interest.  

I don't think the models really have a clue at the moment re what happens after next weekend. Even the much trusted ECM seems to be all over the place; there has been virtually no run-to-run consistency from it since Sunday with each new run throwing up a different outcome to the preceding one. That says to me that almost anything could happen from early next week going forwards.

I think this morning's output is pretty shoddy - no consistently summery weather on offer, with both GFS & ECM showing periods of unsettled conditions from later this week onwards.

Excellent analysis Gibby.

With reference to the highlighted part above, that's what they always seem to show at that range - we get a phantom warm up, which gets eroded as time progresses.  I'll wager we'll get a warm Thursday and / or Friday again, with a cooler weekend.

Not really looks fine for the South at the weekend. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

Model Output Discussion

I think should be renamed The Model emotional Discussion.

These charts are looking a bit dodgy for late June...

It's very tricky to know where this Summer is is going once we move into the "body" of Summer...  

Probability suggests that July won't be particularly crash hot. We've had 2 very good July's in a row so a third?

I made a comment on my FB page last night about how the models appeared to be slipping towards a more unsettled pattern and I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise so far today

^^^^^^

That's certainly a risk D!

Here's today's video update;

Coolest June Since 1991 Unfolding?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Turning into quite a chilly month with sign's of more in the way of unsettled weather next week...

If only it was January!

I'd sacrifice June & July for a scorchio August

[NB - not that I'm forecasting a scorchio August at all!!! ]