For the last few days, each time I have looked at the model output the prospects for the rest of the month seem have gone down a notch.

Certainly there's nothing like my idea of Flaming June on offer 

It is getting depressing - but look at it like this - We all know there is a large pool of below average SSTs to the west and northwest of the country. Its that as we know which is causing this extended spell of below average temperatures - and I can't see it changing any time soon.

I know exactly when the period of below average months will come to an end and the Azores High become dominant.

00.01GMT 1st December 2015

Would you bet against it!

Andy

Andy beats his record yet again with "winter is over post". Six months earlier than normal!

Much better GFS 12z might quell some of the hysteria. Ukmo also good especially for the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

For your location yes it's a bit crap but if it follows GFS high pressure builds in even for you. Anyone South of Birmingham the output remains very good I would say.

Looking a bit cooler and showery.

One's take on the output is very location-dependent at the moment.

Today's trend has been to slow down the arrival of the shortwave low, first allowing Saturday to remain relatively warm for almost the entirety of the UK (temps high teens to low 20's) and now on the 12z op runs giving rise to a fine, warm Sunday for at least the southern half of of England and Wales (ECM), perhaps the majority (GFS).

Obviously the trend needs to continue if Northern England is to have a decent sort of Sunday, and even then we're still looking at some scattered showers developing inland on both days of the weekend for much of E & W, so it's by no means ideal, but I'm all for it over the cool, largely cloudy conditions that were being shown just 36 hours ago.

As we get next week underway, it looks like there will be a push from the west crossing the North Atlantic, but the models disagree on its magnitude.

GFS is in the less aggressive camp this evening, the Atlantic westerlies gradually approaching, a ridge from the Azores to the UK producing a run of increasingly warm days ahead of this, cool conditions eventually returning (after the brief visit on Monday) all the way out at day 9.

ECM is arguably a more interesting run, quickly building some 'heat' through to Wednesday, briefly cooling things down a little that evening before tropical maritime air from the southwest introduces muggy weather with some spells of rain but the potential for a bit of hot sunshine in between.

This westerly push is fairly new on the scene as far as the Atlantic charts are concerned, and have changed the game significantly, the flow now favoured to be south of west from Tuesday next week instead of north of west.

In light of this it needs to be viewed with some skepticism for the time being.

Elsewhere, I'm watching some signs that a heat low could be developing across N. Africa some 8-10 days from now as that influx of tropical maritime air stagnates and destabilizes... things might turn a bit tropical for me in the western Med, which would be inconvenient but also fascinating 

Your missing the point Doc, all discussion on here is centred on those living in Southern England, thought you would know that by now. Lol

The outlook is pants for anyone living north of the M62, but after 4 sunless days I doubt I will not notice the difference!

Andy

The 18z GFS op is even flatter with the weekend pattern which means the low makes even less progress south. Still not enough to produce much improvement to Sunday's outlook for the northern half of the, but the southern half... well, it could be up in the mid-20's, some 6-7*C higher than was predicted by yesterdays GFS op runs.

In fact, the push south of cooler air ends up as a glancing blow, with much England and Wales dodging the bullet, holding up in the mid-20's for the far south. A southwesterly flow associated with the Azores Ridge then allows a recovery of temperatures for all but NW Scotland, lasting until the Atlantic throws some frontal systems at us next Friday.

This is the third or fourth time in the past few months that a shallow low has been adjusted from a sharply diving feature to one that slides more ESE and delivers a glancing blow before heading into Scandinavia. For various reasons the models are not good with these things!

I'm starting to get the impression that both temperatures and rainfall amounts could be enhanced for the final days of the month and going into July. For the south, this may be in the form of milder nights but not so warm days... but it's too early to make a call on this - for all we know the westerly push will be toned down to the point that we're left under slack ridges of high pressure again... perhaps drifting east into Europe periodically.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough will move South across England and Wales followed by a slightly fresher NW flow under a ridge of High pressure tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated showers in relatively warm conditions in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains focused on a flow travelling East or SE across the UK over the coming days before weakening somewhat next week but remaining in situ as Low pressure edges slowly South into the UK next week before weakening further thereafter.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a High pressure ridge remaining influential as it stretches across Southern Britain from the Azores. However, it weakens at times sufficiently for troughs to feed down from the NW introducing some showers to more Northern and Eastern areas at times before the High rebuilds at times close to the Sou.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows few changes to the overall synoptic pattern with High pressure down to the SW or South continuing to hold influence across the UK with a lot of fine and dry weather with just brief interventions of cloudier and damper conditions at times across the North and East. Things are shown to warm up considerably for a time in Week 2 as High pressure migrates to the SE and draws a period of humid, thundery aor North for a time from France.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK promoting a lot of fine weather in two weeks time. There remains some exceptions to this general rule of thumb with a more Atlantic based pattern with rain at times but these members still remain in the minority this morning.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today has pressure becoming slacker over the weekend and start to next week. Winds remain from a NW source pulling down some cooler weather into the North with a few showers while the warmth is more likely across the South in the best of the sunshine.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts at first sight looks poor with a lot of weak frontal troughs straddling the UK from the NW over the coming 4-5 days with occasional rain and cloudy muggy air at times alternating with brighter and fresher days later.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows only very slow changes too as High pressure to the SW continues to ward off attacks from the West or NW from weakening roughs moving down over the UK at times. A lot of dry and bright weather is likely but with occasional thicker cloud patches delivering some showers or outbreaks of rain towards the North and East..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure remaining largely in control with the centre just to the SW or West. Somewhat cooler air will be drawn South at times with a few showers in the North and East while the West sees the best of the weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too shows a lot of High pressure in control of the weather across the UK, most so across the South as weak fronts deliver cloud and a little rain or showers to the North at times. Then a short more unsettled period for all is shown next week as a deeper Low crosses the North with some wind and rain for all before High pressure re-estblishes from the South later next week with fine and warm conditions developing, once more especially across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that the basic message remains the same with High pressure never far away to the South or SW ensuring South is best for fine and relatively warm weather while the North sees the occasional risk of a little rain from Atlantic fronts rounding the High pressure ridge's Northern flank.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone though some ingress of Low pressure from the NW does feature from some output at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.7 pts with GFS at 83.2 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.8 over 44.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.8 pts to 20.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main message from the output today is again one of High pressure remaining largely dominant across the UK in the shape of a ridge from the SW. There are signs of a slackening of the NW flow through the weekend and start to next week as pressure leaks away somewhat and this might promote a few more showers with time but no major breakdown looks likely as High pressure still looks like rebuilding later perhaps more favourably in position to allow rather warmer conditions to develop across a wider portion of the UK. So not much else to say this morning with changes just small from day to day and area to area so with some confidence this morning I can say that there is a lot of dry and very useable conditions to come for most and while not excessively hot at anytime some reasonable and  comfortably warm weather is likely for many with just the chance from time to time of a shower or two to dampen the ground more especially in the North.  

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 18th 2015

I see GFS backtracked a little this morning with regards to the weekend low bringing cooler air all the way south, yet ECM drifted in the other direction.

Odds on for a warm Saturday though, and now the showery activity is looking to be focused across the south, with other parts dry except perhaps for NW Scotland where cloud and rain threatens to move in by the afternoon.

We now have a loose consensus that Sunday will be dry and warm for the far south, still fairly warm for some central parts but rather cool with cloud and some rain about further north.

It's not really possible to tell if we're likely to see further revisions one way or the other with the behaviour of that low, due to recent trends contrasting when comparing different models.

Beyond this, we are seeing similar differences between the ECM and GFS operational runs to yesterday; the former introducing a westerly theme by Tuesday which quickly evolves into a 'warm mobility' pattern for the UK, the latter holding off a day or so longer and generally keeping high pressure more influential out to day 10.

The GFS outcome remains relatively pleasant for the far south early next week, even with showers around on Monday, as temperatures keep hitting the high teens to low 20's. I daresay the ECM solution would be similar. Further north, Monday looks a bit naff on most output, but by Tuesday things may be on an improving trend, for example SW Scotland makes it up into the high teens on the GFS 00z and 06z op runs.

The westerly push may be a game changer for our summer pattern, setting up a more SW-NE orientated jet stream, with ridges from the Azores pushing into the Europe and having varying levels of influence over the UK.

At this time of year, such a pattern can produce some very warm days in the south - particularly SE - in between what are usually fairly week weather fronts, though there can be convection initiating along the boundary line to produce some intense downpours.

For the north it's more about mild nights with not a lot of temperature rise during the day... not very inspiring I know!

We'll need to watch out for any lulls in the westerly mobility, as when you have ridges across Europe this can allow for some significant heat to visit the UK for a time at least. The ECM 00z op run's day 10 chart is headed in that direction:

I'm finding this a bit alarming because I know that as these Azores ridges drift slowly east, they can bring some seriously intense plumes of heat to Spain that often progress toward Italy via the Balearic Isles. The one on the above chart has a peak near 26*C at the 850hPa level.

The GFS 06z op has me roasting under 29*C upper air temperatures to kick off July. Even on a breezy island like Minorca that would feel like a pressure cooker 

I'm always encouraged when it's quite in this thread. It usually means there's not much to moan about. 

I do love a good whinge....so here goes. The ECM has a ghastly trough over us by 168-192. Reason to moan!! 😀😋

Perhaps you need to relieve yourself with the JMA then Moomin?  Where a ridge-tastic future can be found 168-192:

500 hPa anom over the 10 day period on tonight's ECM. First hints of possible blocking over the sub-Arctic as we head closer to July?

I'm on holiday for two weeks after this week and that's my straw clutcher!

No need to press the panic button every time higher heights appear in the vicinity of Greenland - it's to be expected at times during any summer. With low heights continuing elsewhere in the Arctic, a full-blown blocking feature seems unlikely within the foreseeable future.

What we are seeing following the increasingly fresh weekend (we've come full circle on that one, only the far south escaping with near average temperatures on Sunday) is a burst of westerly momentum which unfortunately looks to involve a jet that is a bit too far south to allow us to escape the frontal systems from the Atlantic. The lead cause appears to be an negatively tilted trough (angled NW to SE) to the SW of Greenland in four days time, possibly led to behave that way by the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, which are absorbed just before that time. When a trough takes on that shape, it tends to promote a rise in pressure to the NE of it, which is what we see being projected.

While a week or so of wetter conditions wouldn't go amiss for some parts of the south, it's not nice to see the models ramping up the Atlantic as much as they are this evening - at this time of year most people don't want to be dealing with strong winds and active frontal systems enhanced by strong incursions of polar maritime air.

It's also unhelpful if you're looking for the high pressure ridging into Europe to gain some control once the Atlantic winds down again, though GFS certainly pulls that off on the 12z run in lower-res so it does still look possible to recover the situation by the end of the month.

Not really panicing SC, just keeping an eye on possible trends. While the ECM op is not showing anything significant developing regarding height builds over Greenland, the overall deviation on the op is interesting just for itself that may or may not have an impact further down the line. But as you say, owt could happen really, such is the ever changing, but rarely interesting , weather patterns of the North Atlantic.